World series final event payouts

[ohkanada]

Read an interview with Howard Greenbaum (Harrah's director of poker operations and the man in charge of managing the World Series of Poker) on PokerPages.com.

"For 6600 players in the main event, we expect top prize to be about $7.4 million. We had three goals in mind when we discussed the payouts and estimated field size for the main event:
1. Pay the last money finishers at least $15,000 as a reward for five days of effort.
2. Make every final table player a millionaire. No other sporting event in history has ever approached [prize money of that magnitude].
3. Pay 10% of the field, as this is a standard payout scale, and players are content with that."

Interesting stuff.

Ken

[cwsiggy]

Seems kinda low for first place, but guess they wanted to make it deeper.

[LuckYou777]

i'm a little surprised about the first prize payout myself. i'd assumed they'd go with the marketable "$10,000,000 first prize" idea, but the more i think about it, the "everyone at the final table will become a millionaire" is a better approach from a marketing standpoint.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm a little surprised about the first prize payout myself. i'd assumed they'd go with the marketable "$10,000,000 first prize" idea, but the more i think about it, the "everyone at the final table will become a millionaire" is a better approach from a marketing standpoint.

[/ QUOTE ]

I gues I'll just fold my way to the final table :-).

[TheShootah]

Yeah, that is just about the sickest thing I have ever heard. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ohkanada]

Yeah it is a much flatter payout then any other tournies. 7.4 million probably isn't even 15% for the guy that ends up with all the chips.

Looking at last years payouts, the 2nd table got 175-373k, the 3rd table got 120k, 4th table got 80k, 5th table got 60k and so on down to 10k for many players.

I am guesing the 2nd table would get 400-800k and the 3rd table somewhere around 200-300k.

I doubt the "pros" are happy about the flat payout but for most of the 6600 that plays, this is a very good payout structure.

Ken

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah it is a much flatter payout then any other tournies. 7.4 million probably isn't even 15% for the guy that ends up with all the chips.

Looking at last years payouts, the 2nd table got 175-373k, the 3rd table got 120k, 4th table got 80k, 5th table got 60k and so on down to 10k for many players.

I am guesing the 2nd table would get 400-800k and the 3rd table somewhere around 200-300k.

I doubt the "pros" are happy about the flat payout but for most of the 6600 that plays, this is a very good payout structure. Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fantastic, actually. To 99.9% of the players in the main event this year this flatter payout would be preferable, simply because we've reached a point in prize money where it makes good sense to make as many big payouts as possible to as many players as possible.

I seriously doubt that whoever wins it will feel like they got shorted.

"Yes, Norman, I'm happy to have won, of course, but let's get serious--$7.5 million?! Please, I wouldn't even have PLAYED in that stupid $42 satellite in the first place if I'd have known they were gonna do THAT to me!"

I think the following scenario is much more likely:

"I'm sorry--excuse me?! HOW much did I just win for 35th place?! You're freakin kiddin me!! Woooooohooooo!! Yeah! Holy sh*t!! Damn!"

[FMMonty]

I'd be happy with top 20% payout as it would help with my bets of who is going to get in the money!

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I doubt the "pros" are happy about the flat payout

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

If you define "pro" as someone whose annual income comes mostly from playing poker, then most pros should be very happy with the payout structure described by Howard Greenbaum in the interview (http://www.pokerpages.com/blog/pokerpagesdan.php?itemid=353).

(However, they might be concerned about whether Harrah's is going to facilitate/enforce final-table deals in televised events. Greenbaum's comment on this issue: "It's something that we haven't talked about, and it's something that maybe we should, but I don't have any comment on it right now… It's something I haven't really given much thought to. It's something I'll probably pick some other peoples' brains about. It's a point of discussion.")

[ohkanada]

I know from reading RGP and other stuff, that the top tourney pro's would rather have less payouts and the money much more top heavy in the top few spots. With 6600 playing and most of them not pros, a flatter structure makes a lot more sense.

Here is a thread from the past with a Daniel and several other well known RGPers.

http://tinyurl.com/azs4c

Ken

[B-Man]

I'm one of the 6,600, and I think this is fantastic.

[Vincent Lepore]

[ QUOTE ]
7.4 million probably isn't even 15% for the guy that ends up with all the chips.


[/ QUOTE ]

True. But, I like the flatter payouts. One problem, though, is that, in my opinion, the flatter pay outs will attract more Poker Professionals. That can't be good news for Tournaments Specialists.

Vince

[MicroBob]

I would actually be happy with 20% paying out as well.
Even if 1000th place got less then their EF back.


On the PPM cruise it paid 180 out of 735 places ($10k EF that most people won via a satellite).
I finished 177th for $5215 and was pretty darned happy.



I wouldn't mind at all if the WSOP lower prize money was less than $15k.

[Easy E]

I miss the days when RGP had that kind of discussion

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
I know from reading RGP and other stuff, that the top tourney pro's would rather have less payouts and the money much more top heavy in the top few spots. With 6600 playing and most of them not pros, a flatter structure makes a lot more sense.

Here is a thread from the past with a Daniel and several other well known RGPers.

http://tinyurl.com/azs4c

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

That thread is interesting, but I don't think any of them were anticipating that the WSOP would ever have 6000 people and be paying the 9th place player over $1,000,000.

[ohkanada]

Certainly not.

I wonder if any of the tourney pro's have changed their tune. I suspect they would still want to pay less number of players but pay the top few spots more. Considering there will be almost 3 times the number of players from last year but only paying the top prize 50% more, it does seem like a helluva bad beat for the winner. One we all want of course!

Ken

[ohkanada]

Based on 6600 entries, the total prizes would be just over 62 million. Here is one possible way to break that 62 million down into 664 spots using the assumptions that I read from that interview:

1 $7,400,000.00
2 $4,500,000.00
3 $3,300,000.00
4 $2,800,000.00
5 $2,300,000.00
6 $1,900,000.00
7 $1,550,000.00
8 $1,250,000.00
9 $1,000,000.00
10-12 $750,000.00
13-15 $600,000.00
16-18 $430,000.00
19-27 $330,000.00
28-36 $250,000.00
37-45 $190,000.00
46-54 $150,000.00
55-63 $125,000.00
64-72 $100,000.00
73-81 $80,000.00
82-162 $60,000.00
163-324 $45,000.00
325-486 $30,000.00
487-664 $15,000.00

Ken

[Corey]

I fear how long 70 tables hand-for-hand will take.

That being said, as one of the 6600, I am very happy about the flatter payout structure, especially the $15k at the bottom. Don't forget that the residual income from winning the WSOP will probably push that $7.4m way up.

[cwsiggy]

especially if you qualify on Full Tilt! hehe make that 17 million!!

[lastchance]

I see many advantages to a flatter payout.

1. Taxes. If you gain a huge amount of profit for gambling, much of it will surely go to the IRS. If you create a flatter payout, you can have more of that income go to the players, and less go to the IRS, which, I believe, takes up a lot of the $EV of playing MTT's.

2. Deal-making. If payouts are relatively gradual, especially at the final table, very suddenly, most of the incentive for deal-making goes away, which has to make for somewhat more watchable and competitive poker.

3. $EV considerations at the table. With a flatter payout, people will be more aggressive and more willing to play for first. We will see somewhat more entertaining poker, rather than gap concept play.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah it is a much flatter payout then any other tournies. 7.4 million probably isn't even 15% for the guy that ends up with all the chips.

Looking at last years payouts, the 2nd table got 175-373k, the 3rd table got 120k, 4th table got 80k, 5th table got 60k and so on down to 10k for many players.

I am guesing the 2nd table would get 400-800k and the 3rd table somewhere around 200-300k.

[/ QUOTE ]
Whose EV will be higher under the old structure, and whose will be higher under the new structure?

The individual who would have had the greatest EV under the old structure will see a decrease in EV under the new structure.

But the individual with the 15th-highest EV under the old structure should see an increase in EV under the new structure. Is that correct, or is my analysis too simplistic?

If I am correct, then most pros should welcome the new structure set out in the Greenbaum interview, because it will result in an increase to their EV (as well as a decrease in their variance).