OESD turned middle pair paired board [Archive]

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thesharpie

05-12-2005, 07:12 AM

MP2 is semi LAGish over 20 hands, 40/12/3 AF. UTG+1 is a 75/0 cat food. I wish he was on my right. /images/graemlins/ooo.gif Can I find a bet somewhere? Lead the river and fold to a raise?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. CO posts a blind of $1.
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, 4 folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks.

Final Pot: 8.75 BB

imported_leader

05-12-2005, 07:21 AM

I'd lead the flop. then you will have at least some idea if your Q or J are any good. Plus deception. since you C/C'ed, I'd lead the turn. If raised call and fold the river UI.

thesharpie

05-12-2005, 07:28 AM

We're going to have to call the turn even if we find out our Q and J aren't good. It's not a bad semi bluff bet but I don't think they're going to fold much, and the aggressive player could raise with some ace high leading us to think our Q&Js aren't good when they really are...

imported_leader

05-12-2005, 07:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
We're going to have to call the turn even if we find out our Q and J aren't good. It's not a bad semi bluff bet but I don't think they're going to fold much, and the aggressive player could raise with some ace high leading us to think our Q&Js aren't good when they really are...

[/ QUOTE ]

Which A-high does he have that would make our Q and J good? A9-A2 I think it's safer to assume that he's not raising these PF after two limpers. His PFR is 12 not 20.

Nfinity

05-12-2005, 07:50 AM

I think you lead the flop. If you get raised in this case, how does leading again when the Q turns sound? Your showing the aggressive player you mean business. Of course it could lead you into a false sense of security when he calls with a K, fearing your straight or trips, but you gain a little more information if he raises, so you can confidently Check-fold the flop UI.

imported_leader

05-12-2005, 07:52 AM

I think you might have stumbled into why betting out the flop is wrong. Our Q and J are almost never good here. In his range of possible holdings AA-77 AK-AT KQ-KJ QJ, we are no good the vast majority of the time. I think that a C/C-C/C-fold unimproved would be best here.

A_C_Slater

05-12-2005, 07:52 AM

Is it so inconceivable to think that by leading out on the flop you can win it right then and there?

imported_leader

05-12-2005, 07:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is it so inconceivable to think that by leading out on the flop you can win it right then and there?

[/ QUOTE ]

UTG+1 has a VPiP of 75 and an AF of 0

A_C_Slater

05-12-2005, 08:00 AM

Isn't the 0 an aggression stat? (I don't have PT) if that's the case it doesn't show his fold frequency.

thesharpie

05-12-2005, 08:03 AM

The 0 is his PFR. His AF was < 0.5.

He seemed to have the check/call button ticked alot of the time, including this time he called instantly everystreet.

imported_leader

05-12-2005, 08:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Isn't the 0 an aggression stat? (I don't have PT) if that's the case it doesn't show his fold frequency.

[/ QUOTE ]
All you can really infer is that he doesn't bet or raise. Since he calls 75% of his hands PF I think we can assume he goes to far with them post flop. The raiser is pretty loose here to. I think both of them not getting a piece of this board and choosing to fold their nothing hands is decently low.

A_C_Slater

05-12-2005, 08:07 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The 0 is his PFR. His AF was < 0.5.

He seemed to have the check/call button ticked alot of the time, including this time he called instantly everystreet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, but you're going to call a bet so why not bet yourself? You're right he may not fold to a bet, but you can at least give him a chance too. A bet from you will also be much more intimidating because he is expecting the pre flop raiser to autobet in that spot. A lead bet by you will usually indicate a K or a T. Plus it's not just him you can get to fold. Just getting the pre flop raiser to fold would be good.

It's like the concept of infinite odds. They can't fold if you don't give them an opportunity. What's the worst that can happen? You get raised by the LAG, big deal, you know the fish isn't going to make it 3bets.

Grail

05-12-2005, 11:22 AM

I think I might raise this turn. If the fish calls I'm a little more worried about the hand, but I'm not giving this LAG to much credit just yet. He hasn't shown any real serious strength in this hand yet, but nobody has even tried to push back yet either so it's hard to tell.

Betting the flop might give us some more information as well.

-G