KK against passiveish action

[admiralfluff]

villain is a 20/5, pf AF of 1. Lots of hands, but no real reads.

After the flop 3 bet, I think AA KK or JJ are his most possible holdings. I wasn't sure if he's aggressive enough to 3 bet preflop and on the flop with AKs. What's my plan here. I also felt QQ was unlikely.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, SB calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, CO folds, Hero...

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
I also felt QQ was unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why?


I cap the flop and take it from there. If he checks the turn, I bet, if he bets I call down.

[pokahjokah]

I think you have to cap also, but the range of hands you are ahead of (QQ, AKs, AQs - maybe) does not look too good. If we had reads that would be better. JoshuaD, what would you do if it is capped, a blank falls on turn and the SB leads into you?

[admiralfluff]

because he was a pretty passive player, and when someone caps him preflop, and raises a J high flop to him, he probably thinks something like *well, he's either got AA,KK, or JJ. Me call down.* I don't really like the flop cap. can you elaborate a little more?

[admiralfluff]

well, the more interesting part of the hand for me, was after I called the 3 bet on the flop (possibly incorectly not capping):

the turn comes A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

He bets into me again. Am I stronger or weaker than I was on the flop?

[GetThere1Time]

[ QUOTE ]
because he was a pretty passive player, and when someone caps him preflop, and raises a J high flop to him, he probably thinks something like *well, he's either got AA,KK, or JJ. Me call down.* I don't really like the flop cap. can you elaborate a little more?

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree 100% with your thinking here. I probably call down from his flop 3 bet.

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
He bets into me again. Am I stronger or weaker than I was on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you're now getting 13.5:1, so even if you're 100% certain that he's either got JJ or AA, you've got odds to draw out.

Even if you don't hit, i still think you can't fold on the river in that huge pot... there has to be some chance of him having QQ.

[admiralfluff]

yes, I agree that calling down is the correct line. What was interesting to me, was that because I didn't cap the flop, he could easily bet this turn with KK, which he is much more likely to have, as his chances of having AA are halved.

However, he may be passive enough to go into check/call mode with KK/QQ when the A hits. I couldn't figure out of I was more or less likely to be ahead on the turn.

[goofball]

as everyone said cap the flop. If he still leads the turn then drop to calldown mode.

ALso, dreadful reasoning on your "now that the A hits" statement. Yes, his chance of having AA is now halved, it's also still much more likely (according to card distrbution) than KK. 3 times more likely.

[admiralfluff]

I know this. My point is that before it was 6 times more likely than KK. Solely by card distribution and a set of possible holdings given preflop action, the A is good for me.

My point was that if he has AA,KK, or QQ, the A hitting the turn clearly helps me. But him still betting out when the A hits increases the chances he has an A (as he is more likely to check an A turn with KK or QQ than with AA). The question is how do I end up overall?

[goofball]

well, if you were behind AA you still are, same with JJ.

if you were ahead of A/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/spade.gif, AQ of the same suits, and AJ you are now behind.

If you were ahead of QQ or an overplayed marginal J you still are.


I say the A hurts you, but i still call down.

[admiralfluff]

you might be missing my point. He is passive enough that we can rule out any holdings after the flop 3 bet except for:
JJ (3)
QQ (6)
AA (6)
KK (1)
A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif(1)
I am ahead around 35% of the time.

On the turn, his possible holdings are:
JJ(3)
QQ(6)
AA(3)
KK(1)
A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif(1)
I am ahead 43% of the time.

Before he bets, the A on the turn helps me.
After he bets, I must consider if he does not bet out an A turn with KK and QQ (very likely), in which case it hurts me.

[goofball]

Ok, I believe you that he's passive you can narrow down his hand range enough.

You've taken the math this far, estimate what pct. of the time a turn bet can still mean QQ/KK and adjust accordingly. If he's that passive you might beable top drop your QQ+KK down to 1 combined maybe 2.

Once he bets the river it looks like you are good 1 or 2 times in 8. Gettting laid rougnly 15:2 it looks like a call down, but barely. This could also turn into a river fold if you feel a river bet further reduces his likelihood of having those queens.