AK faces tricky river

[Bodhi]

Absolute Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button is a Rock, but he's not that tight, around 20% VPIP, but <5pfr and <1 TOTA. MP2 is obviously unknown. During this session I was trying to open-raise more because I haven't been receiving enough action on my good hands. My hope was that my opponents wouldn't always think I have AK when I raise. I was open-raising all sorts of suited Aces, big offsuits, middle pockets, and still not getting called. I even raised JTs utg as a joke and everyone folded; I think I gave my opponent too much credit for paying attention...

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, MP2 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Rats! /images/graemlins/frown.gif He was too scared by the A on the turn. I normally bet out here but I wanted to trap MP2 who already seems fishy.

River: (6.75 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, Hero???

So the Button was too scared by the A on the turn to bet after raising the flop (and I don't think a rock is raising a come hand), but now the board pairs. Can I expect to win this 55% of the time that I bet the river and I'm called? (if not raised)

[Maurader1]

I would check/call or fold. I don't think there's value in a bet because a Q is going to raise you, and since button already slowed down on turn, he will probably fold if you have him beat

[bigalt]

how did mp2 seem fishy after just posting his blind? or because of the 2 bet call?

Since Button is so passive, I'd just bet into him and fold to a raise since you're not going to induce a bluff. There's an off chance that you're against some pocket pair and you were going to call a bet on the river anyway...

[imported_leader]

AF &lt; 1 = lead the turn. Since you didn't, I'd bet/fold the river. You can be sure with a player like this that if he raises you're behind.

[Bodhi]

Is it really just a matter of what number their ToT-a equals? Even passive players seem to start gunning once they have a hand (hence their passivity). I would've suspected the opposite, since an aggressive player would be raising with a much wider range of hands, maybe something that's not always worth a turn bet. A passive player, otoh, is not going to raise the flop without anything other than a great hand.

Ironically, this hand seemed to be a case of depending too much on stats in order to decide how to proceed.

Results? <font color="white">Hero checks, villain checks, Villain shows JJ, and the (fishy) poster shows 94o</font>