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View Full Version : TT facing an all-in on an undercard flop.


Eihli
05-11-2005, 09:55 PM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t790)
UTG+2 (t1720)
MP1 (t720)
MP2 (t585)
Hero (t770)
CO (t830)
Button (t770)
SB (t785)
BB (t825)
UTG (t205)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls t15, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls t15, Hero calls t15, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB checks.

Flop: (t67.50) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

UTG+2 bets 60. Next guy calls. I raise to 150. He pushes.

Eihli
05-12-2005, 08:53 AM
bump

sng-sam
05-12-2005, 09:01 AM
I smell a set. fold. plenty of time to fight.Super System says beware of a limped in pot. Everyone limped hoping to flop the nuts cheap. Don't be surprised if someone does.

SAM

multifast1
05-12-2005, 09:01 AM
I'm pretty sure he's only on a draw but when you combine the outside chance he's already made a straight or flopped a set with the likelihood he catches his draw if you call... I'd probably fold here. His draw might even be a flush draw with a high heart like an A or K and then he doesn't even need to make his flush to win, just catch a pair bigger than your 10's.. Definitely fold this early on.

Scuba Chuck
05-12-2005, 03:03 PM
This is a very highly probable call if the caller folds. Range of hands I put villain on are, flush draw ( you're ahead), A8 (you're ahead), 99 (you're ahead), 66 (you're ahead), TJ (you're ahead).

Other possibilities:
AA - poorly played
set
straight

Start applying probabilities to all of these different hands, and I think you'll find that a call here will pay off in the long run.

swarm
05-12-2005, 03:14 PM
Call, I think you are ahead most of the time here, you have to make this call.

Supersystem is not about party poker SNG's with super short stacks. You will double up a lot here, if not you just fire another one up.

the shadow
05-12-2005, 03:25 PM
What $ game is this?

Why raise post-flop?

Were you trying to take the pot down then and there?

What did you expect that the two villains would do in response to your raise?

I know the mantra is raise or fold, or more often, push or fold, but why not just call the flop bet and see what happens at the turn, especially since you get to act last?

The Shadow (who has many questions /images/graemlins/confused.gif but few answers /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

Newt_Buggs
05-12-2005, 03:43 PM
I'de raise a little more on the flop, but thats just me. I'de also call for the above reasons and get ready to beat my head on the wall.

Just calling on the flop is really bad. Just about every card on the turn is going to severely weaken your hand, which is the main reason why I would raise more on the flop.

Scuba Chuck
05-12-2005, 03:50 PM
Shadow, from the chip count you can assume it's a $33 or below game.

You raise post flop because you likely have the best hand. What do you do when you think you have the best hand?

That being said, I agree with other posters here that your postflop raise should be much more. Threaten to go allin is probably the amount you should bet. Or, threaten their stack. If your bet was to invite an allin, then your bet was perfect.

Shadow, what would concern me the most is when I reraise and I get called (especially with three in the pot). A push here screams 'weak hand.' - IMO.

tricolore
05-12-2005, 04:38 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This is a very highly probable call if the caller folds. Range of hands I put villain on are, flush draw ( you're ahead), A8 (you're ahead), 99 (you're ahead), 66 (you're ahead), TJ (you're ahead).

Other possibilities:
AA - poorly played
set
straight

Start applying probabilities to all of these different hands, and I think you'll find that a call here will pay off in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba, I am not sure I agree entirely with the selection of hands you can put villain on.
TJ: unlikely for two reasons. you already have TT and it's a gut shot. Maybe JhTh...
A8: given your raise, he has to figure that you beat TPTK. Maybe Ah8h...

I put villain on 44,77,88,99,JJ,Th9h,JhTh,AhKh,Ah8h,56. (assuming this a $33)

I would personnally fold here.

pooh74
05-12-2005, 04:54 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Shadow, from the chip count you can assume it's a $33 or below game.

You raise post flop because you likely have the best hand. What do you do when you think you have the best hand?

That being said, I agree with other posters here that your postflop raise should be much more. Threaten to go allin is probably the amount you should bet. Or, threaten their stack. If your bet was to invite an allin, then your bet was perfect.

Shadow, what would concern me the most is when I reraise and I get called (especially with three in the pot). A push here screams 'weak hand.' - IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

To me it screams "set, get the hell out str8 and flush draws"...but i see dead people too.

uphigh_downlow
05-12-2005, 05:11 PM
It seems to me that (and it may vary from person to person) there are fewer hands that you can actually beat in this case than would beat you. While its important to assign probabilities to the range of hands, you said that you have no read on the guy, which makes it harder to assign these probabilities. So I take the possibilities into consideration, each equally possible (to approximate)

In addition, the hands that you do beat on the flop might not be so far behind.


Anyhow, without making this too long, it seems that this would be a fold situation.

ps: There is a double or nuttin school of thought, that might advocate calling here, and its a reasonable suggestion.(as long as your hourly expectation is high enough to warrant that)

sng-sam
05-12-2005, 05:16 PM
seriously? You mean Brunson didn't write it specifically about NLHE SNG's at Party Poker??!?!?! Now I have to change my whole strategy. Next you'll tell me that Aleo's guide won't help me win the WSOP.

In reality it is a reasonable concept that in a limped pot, everyone is limping because they have a hand that ain't worth much but might improve with a good flop. Therefore......if everyone limps and you get this kind of action, it is highly likely you are up against a set. or 2 pair. So as Dolly said "everyone limped trying to flop the nuts don't be surprised if someone did"

the shadow
05-12-2005, 05:46 PM
[ QUOTE ]
You raise post flop because you likely have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scuba, how would you play 44, 77, or 88 preflop and on the flop from UTG+2 or MP2?

[ QUOTE ]
What do you do when you think you have the best hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think that hero has the best hand?

To answer your question, I don't always just raise with the best hand. In an early position, I may check-raise a hand if (1) I think it's the best, (2) I expect a later player to bet, and (3) I'm pretty confident that my hand will stay the best. In a later position, I may just call a bet if (1) I think that my hand will still hold up and (2) I think I can extract another bet on the next street.

The Shadow