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View Full Version : Pumping the boat draw

olavfo
05-11-2005, 08:51 PM
A situation I've not encountered before. Comments welcome.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (15 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, CO calls, BB calls.


With 7 outs (14.9%) to make a full house or better before the turn and 10 outs (21.7%) before the river if the board fails to pair on the turn, my chance of making a boat or better by the river is

P = 0.149 + (1-0.149)*0.217 = 0.33 = 33%

(isn't it?) so I figure I can just go ahead and raise and cap the flop as long as I get at least 2 callers (which I'm sure I'll get). The last bet that goes in won't make me money, but I won't lose anything either with pot equity 33% (and who knows, maybe it can give me a free card).

Apart from adjusting my percentages to take a possible straight flush (which doesn't worry me too much) into account, is my pumping-the-boat-draw plan on the flop correct?

olavfo
Nak
05-11-2005, 08:57 PM
I'm afraid you're math is wrong. You have seven outs to a boat or better. So, you chances of hitting (flop and turn) are 27.8%. So, if you have three callers, you're okay.

Nak
UncleSalty
05-11-2005, 08:59 PM
No, his math is correct. He has 10 outs from turn to river. (Because the turn card can pair.)
olavfo
05-11-2005, 09:01 PM
I gain 3 more outs if the board fails to pair on the turn.

olavfo
UncleSalty
05-11-2005, 09:05 PM
I like it, by the way. Textbook pot equity edge exploitation.
aK13
05-11-2005, 09:06 PM
What if I have QJ /images/graemlins/club.gif ?
UncleSalty
05-11-2005, 09:09 PM
What percent of the time do you think you will run into a straight flush instead of a regular flush in this situation?
Nak
05-11-2005, 09:10 PM
I guess I should have told you how to figure that. You have seven outs for the turn. Think of it this way. Every card on the turn is an "out". If it's one of your winners it's a true out. If it's another card, it's worth 7/46 of an out because you have to hit on the river. Therefore, you have 7 + (47 - 7)*(7/46) = 13.09 "outs" and you chance of winning (turn and river) is 13.09/47 = .2784 or 27.84%.

Nak
aK13
05-11-2005, 09:10 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What percent of the time do you think you will run into a straight flush instead of a regular flush in this situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/cool.gif
psyduck
05-11-2005, 09:12 PM
Nicely played. Might even buy you a free card if a club or another straight card falls...
Nak
05-11-2005, 09:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
No, his math is correct. He has 10 outs from turn to river. (Because the turn card can pair.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yes, you are right. Thanks. I was just calculating from 7 outs on the flop.

Nak
olavfo
05-11-2005, 09:14 PM
[ QUOTE ]
What if I have QJ /images/graemlins/club.gif?

[/ QUOTE ]


Then I'm [cencored], but only if I improve. The parlay of me improving and Villain having a straight flush is sufficiently improbable for me to ignore it (any odds wizards here who can calculate this probability?).

olavfo