AKo on the bubble -- I fold the damn thing

[jcm4ccc]

Should I have called? Is it even close?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t2245)
UTG (t2185)
Button (t1660)
Hero (t1910)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1660 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Final Pot: t2110

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
No showdown. Button wins t2110. </font>

[shejk]

Is this a serious post?

[Nick M]

I'd call and be real happy about it too hahaha

You need to try and get some chips if you want first money. AK is most defintely the best hand here. If it isn't its a flip for sure.

[KingMedicine]

i dont get it.

insta call and knock him out.

somebody help me see what im missing.

[Voltron87]

stupidest question ever.

[Nick M]

I guess I'm the only one who answered this seriously hahahah. I think he really wants to know...man you guys crucified him. I mean this question is the exact reason why pushing on the bubble is like the most important thing.

[dmmikkel]

agreed 100% If i knew my opponents folded AK my Axs pushes or not to say K-high pushes

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
stupidest question ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

ever? damn.

[dmmikkel]

Ever.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly you are unfamiliar with some of my earlier posts.

[dmmikkel]

You got me there. Have you folded aces heads up?

[gasgod]

OK, a serious reply.

If you fold, you will be short stack with an equity of about 22% of the prize pool.

If you call and win, you will be big stack with an equity of about 33% of the prize pool.

If you call and lose, your equity will be very small, but non-zero. call it 3% of the prize pool. (BTW, all of these are back-of-the-envelope estimates)

How often will you win if you call? This depends on the range of hands villain might have. But certainly, you would be a favorite. My guess is 75%. You need only 60% or so to break even.

Somebody with eastbay's tool could give you a better estimate than mine, but I suspect it's not even close.

GG

[NegativeEV]

With the ICM calculator and Pokerstove (both free) you can construct the mathmatical answer to your question (if you accept ICM as a reasonable mathmatical indicator which most here do). The only variable is the range of hands that villian is pushing with. Once you've done a few of these "math" problems, you will find that you can do them quickly and arrive at your own answers to these questions. This process is very useful and will be better for your learning than just posting these hands without having done the math.

As others have said, this is a call, not close. You only need to win ~ 55% of the time to make this correct according to the ICM math model. Villians hand range will give you much better than 55% win rate.

EDIT: By the way, the process that will help your learning the most is to construct various stack size situations with this AK hand to determine when you SHOULD fold AK on the bubble according to the ICM model.

[Scuba Chuck]

-EV, don't you recognize a joke post when you see one? Get back to 6 tabling!

Scuba

[Nick M]

damn I was fooled too. No more Focking help for anyone...I hate you all!

[egj]

I don't think this is a joke post and I don't think it's the dumbest question ever. There are times when it is right to fold AK on the bubble.

But I don't think this is one of those times. I would call.

If I ran the ICM numbers correctly, you need to be about a 60% favorite to come out ahead. You should be against the likely push range of your opponent.

[valenzuela]

No comments( i dont mean to be ass i really dont know how to explain u should have called)

[valenzuela]

tell me why is it correct to fold, give me powerful reasons, plz provide something to back u up. ( the objective is for u to realize it correct to call)

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
tell me why is it correct to fold, give me powerful reasons, plz provide something to back u up. ( the objective is for u to realize it correct to call)

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, here's what I'm thinking. With the stack sizes the way they are, I will get ITM at least 75% of the time, and probably closer to 80% of the time. Once I'm ITM, I'm pretty good at getting first, even when I'm the short stack.

If I call, I will get ITM around 65 - 70% of the time, I think, though granted I will be the big stack when I am in the money.

I'm not arguing that my fold was correct. But that was my thinking.

[microbet]

$EV wise it is slightly negative if his pushing range is 77+, AT+.

This is a tight range, but not ridiculously so.

[valenzuela]

Lets review the 5 factors:
oponent: i dunno.
hand: excellent.
stacks: u can see the stacks favor calling everyone but u above t2000 if u fold.
gap: who cares u have an excelent hand.
position: SB, which means BB might call. However obne players left to act isnt such a problem.
pot odds: very good like 1,8 to 1.

[Newt_Buggs]

[ QUOTE ]
Once I'm ITM, I'm pretty good at getting first, even when I'm the short stack.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that you need to reevaluate the fundamentals of SnGs. I don't care if you're gigabet playing in a $20, once you get ITM here whether you get 1st is going to depend more on your stack size than your play (unless your opponents are incompetently tight). Yes, you get +2 buy ins for sneaking into 3rd, but +3 for going from 3rd to 1st. You need these chips if you want to get 1st place. Trust the ICM on this one

[valenzuela]

Very well said.