$50NL bottom set vs possible higher set

[BZ_Zorro]

Possible higher set, all the signs going off... Who lays this down? I've read before that set over set is usually a loss of stack but clarification would be good.

A few hands in, not much info. From notes MP2 is straight up, he has high pockets without a doubt. No clue on CO.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG ($46.05)
UTG+1 ($45.3)
MP1 ($39.3)
MP2 ($49.5)
CO ($57.75)
Hero ($52.15)
SB ($76.49)
BB ($49)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to $1.75</font>, CO calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($6) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $7</font>, CO calls $7, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, MP2 calls $7, CO goes all in [$49], Hero is all in [$36.4], MP2 folds.

Turn: ($117) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: ($117) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: $117

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
CO has 8c 8d (three of a kind, eights).
Hero has 5h 5d (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: CO wins $117. </font>

Easy fold? How about if Hero had 88?

I know this is run of the mill stuff but I'm still questioning some of the basic aspects of my play, so thanks for responding.

Perhaps reraise to $20 on the flop instead? I initially read CO as big draw so I wanted to milk both him and the overpair and hit them on the turn if they missed.

[MLerra]

CO played that extremely well. On the flop, he thought he'd call, in order to induce another potential bet on the turn, and to keep you in there. Once he realized you both might feel pot committed, or think your hands were good, he put you all-in so he wouldn't have to fear you hitting your straight or flush draw, if that's what you held.

[elus2]

CO's line of call, push screams massive hand. if it wasn't TT/88 then the only other hands i could (very remotely) see playing like this would be Ac8c, 7c6c, Jc9c. that makes 6 combinations of sets and 3 combinations of flush draws. i'd like to hear from others what other possible holdings CO can have that we can beat. i'd lay down 55 but call with 88.

[wtfsvi]

Yes, I think you would be better off raising to at least 20. Don't think you can almost ever get away from a set with tose stacks on a draw-heavy low-card flop like that. Especially not in a raised pot. You'd have to have a really solid read.

[elus2]

CO played the hand abysmally. CO should have raised to cut down Hero's implied odds. By raising, CO's hand will also be that much harder to read. As it is, his line is very transparent.

[BZ_Zorro]

In addition the hands you mention and the set, I was thinking AKs, QJs, maybe AA if he was slowplaying MP2's overpair and expected me to fold.

I think any of those might be pushed at $50NL, especially if he expected a fold from me after his flat call.

[kurto]

We'll all get killed by set over set, but I have been looking closely at these situations to try to minimize the losses in these situations.

Let's say you're playing against decent straight-forward opponents... I actually think in this situation one could argue for a laydown.

The ONLY made hand that an average-decent player that makes this bet, considering the preflop raise, is a set. Pocket aces could might do this (though I don't think they would play it this way) but considering the preflop action, I would be more willing to put MP2 on the high PP.

I was in a hand recently where I lost a sizeable amount knowing I probably had 2nd best but the pot was so huge and there was a sidepot that made up for 1/2 my losses that I had to stay in.

The action went like this....
A shortstacked MP player limped in. I'm at the cutoff. To my immediate right, a relatively bad but tight player bumps it up 8xbb. I had black Kings. I considered reraising but I thought his bet was sufficient to probably make it heads up and I wanted to make my decision on the flop (see if there's an ace on the flop... how they would react and possibly bluff it.)

Folds to the SB (decent player) who makes a long pause and calls.

The flop comes 2 rags and a 10 (2 clubs). The SB makes a minbet, the MP calls, the guy to my right raises, I reraise him... and the SB goes all in. They all call to me.

At that point, I thought the SB hit his set. But the SB had less then myself or the guy to my right (who I knew wasn't going to fold no matter what), so I decided to gamble and went all in. (I felt there was a decent chance I had second best hand and longshot draws to a flush and a set... weak, but still, it was a consideration)

Sure enough, the SB had a baby pocket pair and hit his set. The guy to my right had jacks so I won a sidepot.

My point of this story is, considering the strength shown by all the other players preflop and on the flop, and taking into account the hesitation preflop (which to me indicated he was judging implied odds) -- there was NO other hand a decent player would play this way on that board. (I would have folded except that the sidepot was enough to win back 1/2 of my invest or so as well as a small chance of sucking out on an enormous pot)

I think many will say its weak to ever fold a set, but I think that's crazy if you have decent reads.

The only drawing hand that would be proper in the situation posted above would be if the CO had a 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif (or 9J) and had a monster draw... but I don't think most players are calling 8xbb raises with either of those 2 hands UTG.

Though I predict people will lambast me saying never fold a set. (I'll just say, when you've been at a table long enough to get reads on most of the players... you can tell. With reads, I think its often very easy to spot a set.)

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
CO played the hand abysmally. CO should have raised to cut down Hero's implied odds. By raising, CO's hand will also be that much harder to read. As it is, his line is very transparent.

[/ QUOTE ]
not just this, but there are flush and straight draws on the board. i love it when i bet my draws and the person with the set slowplays it and i bust them with a turned flush.

CO played it terribly.

too many posters recently have been check-raising or check-calling sets. at least OP raised here (even though it was a shitty min-raise).

[elus2]

Depending on how aggressive he is, AcKc might have been reraised preflop and will probably raise that flop. It seems uncharacteristic for QcJc to play this way and I do not see how he could think that he has any fold equity from you after you minraise another 7 dollars.

[elus2]

the preflop raise was 4x bb.

[BZ_Zorro]

[ QUOTE ]
too many posters recently have been check-raising or check-calling sets

[/ QUOTE ]
Not just sets, but many good hands that were limped or not raised properly, and all of a sudden they're faced with a decision for a lot of chips and no clue what the other person is holding. It's been an eye opener for me.

If I'd raised to $20 here for example, I would have laid it down without question to a push.

[kurto]

You're right. I don't know why the converter never captures that information.

I was thinking this was a $25 table.

All things considered, I still think the play screams set.

[punter11235]

In my opinion there is nothing you can do with lower set against higher one in low stakes NL. It is possible to win 400$ pot at 1/2NL with set, when one guy is allin with his 2overcards or guthost str8 or anything for that matter, there is no way you can have so good read at this level.
I just treat lower set as robbery on the street. Ok I got robbed I lost 100$ but I am going to walk tomorrow again, the same with low stakes NL /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Best wishes

[kurto]

[ QUOTE ]
there is no way you can have so good read at this level.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you can. Certainly with enough accuracy to make good laydowns AND good calls.

If the entire table is idiots... making a read is impossible. But I contend that there are usually 3-4 complete idiots, 3-4 average (and readable players) and 1-3 decent players (often readable) players at any given low level table.

[nokona13]

When you minraise this bet you're not "charging" the draws, you're just making a bigger pot where they still have correct odds to call. Bad move. I think $20-$25 is better, as you say.

[elus2]

on the contrary this hand illustrates the typical line that low stakes nl players use with their nut hands. would you go broke with KK after someone limp reraises all in UTG preflop? when your opponent plays in a manner that he telescopes his holdings to you, it would be a shame if you did not use that knowledge effectively. of course it will be different if you've played a few hands with the opponent and can model his style of play but in general there are lots of places to make good laydowns versus unknowns.

[punter11235]

I think laying down sets vs unknows is always huge error, not only at 50NL but at 200NL as well.
Here is what I need to laydown my set at this stakes :
-I played enough hands vs this player to see that he always go all-in with stone cold nuts, at least 5 times.
-the board is VERY scary, I mean 3 of a flush or 4cards to str8

I call all-ins bet with sets and overpairs and many opponents showed me their second pairs, third pairs, overcards, undercards !? (250$ pot last night) that I dont believe that lying down sets can be EVER a good play at 200NL or lower.
Just my opinion.

Best wishes

[Dr_Freeze]

I agree... at 200 NL and below, I'm committing my whole stack with a flopped set 99.8% of the time, even with a scary board. If I lose, so be it, but set over set is rare, I have outs against a flush or straight, and to tell the truth, I don't have the discipline to lay it down even if I thought it was a good idea.

-Freeze

[elus2]

we're not folding just any set, we're folding bottom set. of those all in bets that you are calling and winning with sets/overpairs how many mimmicked the flop action that we saw here where villain calls the preflop raiser and then pushes a minraiser. i would think that at least 9 times out of 10 villain's line is a nutlike hand both of which we are a huge underdog to. i don't understand how calling without regard to our opponent's line can be better play even at 200nl and lower.

[punter11235]

To be honest I dont understand this too.
It is just working more often than not.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
we're not folding just any set, we're folding bottom set. of those all in bets that you are calling and winning with sets/overpairs how many mimmicked the flop action that we saw here where villain calls the preflop raiser and then pushes a minraiser.

[/ QUOTE ]

None, because I'm pushing that flop 100% of the time.

[radioheadfan]

CO played it like crap but you didn't play it very well either.

Given the action on the flop, a pot sized raise is to $34 which leaves $14 in your stack in a huge pot if someone calls. I straight up push when it gets to me.

Why the CO guy just called the $7 with the draw heavy board and one player left to act is beyond me. Did one poster say the CO played it brilliantly? Wow.

[BZ_Zorro]

Good advice.

[elus2]

it's horrible advice. push that flop and you don't capitalize on your opponents mistakes as effectively. you lose so much value by doing that.

[elus2]

34 makes it hard for your opponents to call with hands that are drawing to 2 outs or virtually dead. if you have top pair top kicker or an overpair, do you call a pot sized raise from the button? why not stick in 20 to 25 now and then get the rest in on the turn.

[BZ_Zorro]

This was my dillemma.

The position of the players was the problem here. I knew MP2 had overpair, so I wasn't concerned about him. However, he was likely to call a $20 bet just as easily as $14.

CO was the problem. The flat call made me think big draw. If I raised to $20, and MP2 called, CO would have excellent odds, and I'd have no leverage on the turn. I planned to go all in on the turn if the obvious draws missed, as MP2 would have folded the turn to an all in (I have good notes on him).

I think given those dynamics, all in might be good advice.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
it's horrible advice. push that flop and you don't capitalize on your opponents mistakes as effectively. you lose so much value by doing that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's that or fold. If continuing, hero MUST raise; there's $27 in the pot and hero has $43 behind. A pot-sized raise commits him, while with two callers and a board like this, less than the pot is not going to cut it.

[TreyOfLight]

[ QUOTE ]
34 makes it hard for your opponents to call with hands that are drawing to 2 outs or virtually dead. if you have top pair top kicker or an overpair, do you call a pot sized raise from the button? why not stick in 20 to 25 now and then get the rest in on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't want AcAx calling here to push you off your hand semibluffing with a turned club.

Your hand is not good enough, nor the field narrow enough, nor the stacks deep enough, nor the board dry enough to get cute here in any manner.

EDIT: clubs