First hand ITM holding deuces in the BB...

[suited_ace]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (3 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t2540)
Hero (t1620)
Button (t3840)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t1000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero?

[valenzuela]

all-in.

[Meatmaw]

Easy fold. Why exactly do you want to call for a coin flip here? He's probably not pushing with 72o.

[AceofSpades]

I'd fold that in a heart beat. With 22 you're a coin flip or a big dog to any hand (such as a pocket pair) that he would raise with. Plus you are not even closed to short stacked so you don't need to make a move quick.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. Why exactly do you want to call for a coin flip here? He's probably not pushing with 72o.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is HORRIBLE ADVICE. You have 300 chips in the pot and u want to fold a coinflip, are u high?

[valenzuela]

You have 3:2 pot odds to go all-in, I dont think villain has a higher pocket pair more than 30% of the time.(20*30 + 50*70 =4100/100=41)

[Baked67]

How do you figure he's not short stacked? 6x BB is pretty short. I push, for what its worth, in this spot; but I could be wrong.

[Maulik]

it doesn't really matter you can wait it out and find a better spot or call.

[jcm4ccc]

You're going to get your chips all-in here, but I think it's a big mistake to do anything but a stop-and-go. This is the perfect opportunity. You would like the button to fold preflop, but you have zero folding equity. You are the first to act on the flop. You have 620 chips to push on the flop, which can definitely induce a fold (especially on the lower buy-ins).

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold. Why exactly do you want to call for a coin flip here? He's probably not pushing with 72o.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have 5.5 BB and 1 BB in the middle already. Do you think you will get a chance to turn down 55/45 edges? Pushing is +EV and you are playing for first, not second.

That being said, I like the idea of a stop-and-go here, because you have zero folding equity preflop (yes I'm echoing a previous poster, I know, sue me).

[Maulik]

i like the stop and go better than what i suggested, good call

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
You're going to get your chips all-in here, but I think it's a big mistake to do anything but a stop-and-go. This is the perfect opportunity. You would like the button to fold preflop, but you have zero folding equity. You are the first to act on the flop. You have 620 chips to push on the flop, which can definitely induce a fold (especially on the lower buy-ins).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the stop and go is the way to do it if you're going to play this. I think 22 is a bad enough hand, however, that you can probably fold this and not really be missing much equity.

Quick ICM: fold: 27.4%
push and lose: 20%
push and win: 35.7%

You need to win this pot 7.4 / 15.7 ~ 47% of the time if you were to push now to make this right. Against most ranges tighter than any two this is going to be extremely close. (EDIT: Using the following huge range gets you about 47%, as an example: any ace, any king, any pair, any suited queen, most unsuited queens, JTo, suited connectors down to 54s). By using a stop and go you'll pick up some folding equity, maybe, but I think you can pretty guiltlessly fold this if you want.

[Newt_Buggs]

thanks for working that out for us gump. To me it looks like its better to fold and resteal. If you are a winning player you don't want to make break even plays, you want +EV plays.

I really don't see a stop and go working with much success here mainly because his pushing range is probably tigther than this (especially since this is a lower buy in with more passive players). I would still stop and go instead of push though just for the hell of it if I was going to play this hand.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're going to get your chips all-in here, but I think it's a big mistake to do anything but a stop-and-go. This is the perfect opportunity. You would like the button to fold preflop, but you have zero folding equity. You are the first to act on the flop. You have 620 chips to push on the flop, which can definitely induce a fold (especially on the lower buy-ins).

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that the stop and go is the way to do it if you're going to play this. I think 22 is a bad enough hand, however, that you can probably fold this and not really be missing much equity.

Quick ICM: fold: 27.4%
push and lose: 20%
push and win: 35.7%

You need to win this pot 7.4 / 15.7 ~ 47% of the time if you were to push now to make this right. Against most ranges tighter than any two this is going to be extremely close. (EDIT: Using the following huge range gets you about 47%, as an example: any ace, any king, any pair, any suited queen, most unsuited queens, JTo, suited connectors down to 54s). By using a stop and go you'll pick up some folding equity, maybe, but I think you can pretty guiltlessly fold this if you want.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that you are now forced to push any two on the next hand (if the button folds, which is not guaranteed).

So you have a choice of playing this hand, which seems to be about break-even EV-wise (though I think the stop-and-go pushes it ahead of break-even). Or you can push any two on the next hand, or the following hand.

Playing another hand is definitely -EV. You will either lose another 150 chips (if the button pushes and you decide to fold), or you will push any two and get called by the big stack (it will cost him 1000 chips to win 1450 chips, and he knows you have to push crap). The odds are against you gaining chips in the next hand or two.

You can't wait around. Your folding equity is almost gone (especially since you will be pushing against the big stack), and the chances are you will not get another break-even opportunity to double your chips.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

You can't wait around. Your folding equity is almost gone (especially since you will be pushing against the big stack), and the chances are you will not get another break-even opportunity to double your chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a valid concern, but I think that almost 4 BBs, which is what the poster will have after moving through the SB, is enough to still have some folding equity. Pushing any hand on the button, or any hand in the SB if you get the chance, seems likely to have better results to me because I think you're going to just steal the blinds often enough to make those plays somewhere near breakeven or better EV as well.

[Scuba Chuck]

jcm, thanks for your responses on this. It seriously looks like you've put some thought into your response. My first impression was to fold this hand as well, as 22 is a serious dog most of the time (hell J9s is a 53% fav over 22). But the fact that the $EV analysis is that close due to chipstack, and the fact that the size of the blinds are not considered in $EV analysis, I too agree that the poker gods have forced your move here.

Furthermore, the stop N go is a very ingenius way to play this hand. Yes you will have FE on this hand. Especially if villain has raised with a hand like K9 and the flop misses him completely.

[ QUOTE ]
but I think you can pretty guiltlessly fold this if you want.

[/ QUOTE ]

Only if hero reaches down into his luckometer for the next couple of hands.

Scuba

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Only if hero reaches down into his luckometer for the next couple of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Disclaimer: I don't play at Party.

Are average players really going to call you with a massive range at &lt;$50 buyin when you push your ~ 4 BBs on the button in two hands?

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
(hell J9s is a 53% fav over 22)

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I don't understand this.

Only this particular scenario?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
(hell J9s is a 53% fav over 22)


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Sorry, I don't understand this.

Only this particular scenario?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm just trying to emphasize how weak 22 is as compared to other pairs like 77.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Only if hero reaches down into his luckometer for the next couple of hands.


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Disclaimer: I don't play at Party.

Are average players really going to call you with a massive range at &lt;$50 buyin when you push your ~ 4 BBs on the button in two hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it matters what site you're playing. Calling standards are far wider once ITM. If this was the bubble, your pushing would carry far more FE. Choose a hand range of calling standards. According to PokerScott's Push or Wait (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=singletable&amp;Number=1941378 &amp;fpart=1&amp;PHPSESSID=) post, Q9o, is the average strength of hand by waiting for two hands. I think we could use this hand against whatever hand range you're choosing, and I think we'll find the math to be very similar. That being said, you add in the stopNgo element, and a potential blind increase, and that might still favor playing the 22 hand.

Thoughts?

Scuba