*****Official AI Thread******

[scott8]

Couldn't resist.
Big rumor is that tonight's theme is country. While this would seem to be an obvious benefit to Carry, I would think she will be judged with more scrutiny b/c of her background.
Although, what the hell would Bo sing?
-SC

[Subby]

[ QUOTE ]
Although, what the hell would Bo sing? -SC

[/ QUOTE ]
There is plenty of Southern Fried Rock...

I could also see him doing well with Garth.

Hopefully Vonzell does Patsy Cline and stays away from contemporary country...

[NoChance]

For all those Bo fans, this is probably a great week to have the country theme. You wouldn't want it next week. The way I understand it, everyone basically has a pass this week except for Anthony. So, may as well get Country out of the way.

*Not a fan of Bo, just stating my opinion. Actually rooting for Carrie.

[jasonHoldEm]

The themes are "Nashville" and "The Philadelphia Sound of Gamble and Huff".

Source (http://et.tv.yahoo.com/micro/idol/2005/05/10/americanidol_preview051005/)

I think Bo will be fine with both of these. Anthony is probably the one who is in the most trouble.

J

[GrannyMae]

Big rumor is that tonight's theme is country

rigged i tell ya'

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/u/rockband.gif


what's next week theme?

"Any song Carrie definitely knows all the words to"?

[JTrout]

Bo will be great at country. Strong voice. Attitude.

I take it back. What a crappy song selection!

[NoChance]

Have to agree with Simon's analysis of Bo there.

Having said that, I think Carrie could have picked a better selection also. She did okay but it's tough to do a variation of a Dixie Chick song and sound great.

I thought Bo would have done better choosing a Toby Keith song.


Vonzell picked a great song for her but is not hitting the notes well. Sounds off key.

Hate to say it but Anthony sounded best in Country.

*I listen to country.

[jasonHoldEm]

What's up with Vonzell?

[TStoneMBD]

carrie sucked. thats a shame. i was really pulling for her to win. bo pisses me off. i really dont think he deserves to be the winner, but he looks like a shoein now imo.

[scott8]

Vonzell sure looks vunerable, and Anthony gave his best effort of the season.

[jasonHoldEm]

[ QUOTE ]
Anthony gave his best effort of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I was impressed. It's going to be an interesting results show...I still think there's a decent chance he could be leaving, but he did all he could to stay (and was helped by the fact everyone else had at least one "meh" or worse performance).

J

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Anthony gave his best effort of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I was impressed. It's going to be an interesting results show...I still think there's a decent chance he could be leaving, but he did all he could to stay (and was helped by the fact everyone else had at least one "meh" or worse performance).

J

[/ QUOTE ]

carrie was up to 62 after her first performance. i'm telling you guys, one time in bottom 2 and she becomes second favorite.

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
Vonzell sure looks vunerable, and Anthony gave his best effort of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

vonzell will be DEAD LAST, or top vote getter. sympathy vote has a proven record at AI.

carrie & BO bottom 2 would not surprise me. if BO did not have a shitty first song, he would be the fav. now. out of all the country songs, why that? why not charlie daniels or something else with more of a beat?

[RollaJ]

Was I the only one who thought Vonzell brought her pimp to the show before they said who it was.......... those 2 were really blowing away the sterotypes /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Carrie was better last week by far, Bo's second song rocked the arena hard, Dont know what the F was up with V, but she choked on the first and nailed the second..... but I am still short her, Anthony was boring as usual

Seems this week was a non-event really, I dont think anything really changed....we'll see tomorrow

[jasonHoldEm]

I'm not sure if this is genuine but Reality TV Magazine (http://www.realitytvmagazine.com/blog/2005/05/american_idol_g.html#more) is reporting that AI screwed up the numbers again. Although the audio and graphics were correct supposedly the closed captioning numbers were incorrect (all had the phone number for carrie).

Could we see another revote show? If they proceed does it mean that carrie will be eliminated (because one of the others could cry foul).

If anyone finds this verified at a more credible source (i.e. some news source) please post a link. This could be interesting.

J

[commodore64]

Probably very non pc of me,

but wtf are you doing watching american idol if you cannot hear them singing. It's a singing competition. What's a hearing impaired person gonna vote on?

[jasonHoldEm]

A lot of bars, etc have CC on all the time and it frequently covers up the graphics that are on the screen. I can hear fine, but will occasionally turn it on to "hear" exactly what people are saying (or late at night I'll turn the volume down and turn on the CC so I don't wake up my roommate, etc).

Essentially, a lot of people use CC and if this is genuine it could lead to some interesting results (especially if the proceed w/o a re-vote because it could very well mean carrie is going home). I'm still waiting for this to be verified though and am somewhat skeptical (the images don't look like traditional CC which has a black background rather than transparent...at least on my TV they do).

J

[contentless]

Carrie going home would make my day.

[jasonHoldEm]

(from Idol forums, but I'm pretty sure this is official)

<font color="blue"> STATEMENT REGARDING CLOSED CAPTIONING ON AMERICAN IDOL

MAY 10, 2005

During the second round of songs on the Tuesday, May 10 live broadcast, the closed-caption graphic listing call-in numbers for the various contestants was identical for every performer. While the producers and network acknowledge the closed-captioning error, the correct call-in number for each performer was still read by Ryan Seacrest and broadcast on screen during each performance, as well as the show recap.

The producers and network apologize to our hearing-impaired viewers for any confusion, and the situation was immediately corrected for our tape-delayed west coast broadcast. </font>

[llabb]

I realized I still hold some Anthony's that have been worthless for a long time now. Due to his strong showing last night, and questions about Vonzell's emotions, his stock just gained a tiny pulse.

If somehow V does get eliminated tonight, how much would Anthony be worth? Should I hold them?

Or should I just take the crappy $2 each, since it's better than getting absolutely nada?

[revots33]

So does anyone know what Vonzell was so upset about? She was horrible on that 1st song - seemed to pull herself together for the 2nd.

I thought Carrie sucked on both songs - it was nice to finally hear some negative comments for her from Simon. She's still most likely gonna win though, people just love the whole "farm-girl" schtick.

I'm thinking Afed and Vonzell in bottom 2, with Afed saying bye-bye. I'd LOVE to see Carrie in bottom 2 (and she deserves it based on last night's performances), but it ain't happening.

[RollaJ]

Coppied from realitytvmagazine board.....

[ QUOTE ]
Posted by: Jen | May 11, 2005 02:12 AM

So deaf people across America will throw all their votes to Carrie. This seems appropriate.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats funny sh1t

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
Was I the only one who thought Vonzell brought her pimp to the show before they said who it was.......... those 2 were really blowing away the sterotypes /images/graemlins/tongue.gif


[/ QUOTE ]

I had the same thought. Also, I think that Bo's mom is a MILF.

For what its worth I think that all 4 of them are mediocre.

[Hellmouth]

Damn, I thought we were going to learn how to program poker bots. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Greg

[GrannyMae]

If anyone finds this verified at a more credible source (i.e. some news source) please post a link. This could be interesting.


i saw this rumor last night. i immediately checked it out and it is false. there is no CC phone numbers displayed. they do not CC text. there was no CC on tivo or tape for the end of show numbers.

[GrannyMae]

(from Idol forums, but I'm pretty sure this is official)


did the poster have a moderator icon next to their name?

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
I realized I still hold some Anthony's that have been worthless for a long time now. Due to his strong showing last night, and questions about Vonzell's emotions, his stock just gained a tiny pulse.

If somehow V does get eliminated tonight, how much would Anthony be worth? Should I hold them?

Or should I just take the crappy $2 each, since it's better than getting absolutely nada?

[/ QUOTE ]

i would take the $2. if you get only partial filled at $2, hold the ones you could not sell.

if he lasts tonight, he may go to 4, but he will be zero by next week after elimination.

[jasonHoldEm]

They had a hammer icon, not sure what that means

[GrannyMae]

the hammer means official.

however, i ran the tape back at 9.10 and got no CC of this error on playback.

so, apparently this particular CC was not set to pick up on vcr tapings.

the songs and judges comments showed in CC on tape, but not those phone numbers.

must have been a live thing

[llabb]

Thanks Granny. I was thinking the same thing, and sold them earlier this morning. However, I think there's a very good chance that Anthony will make it through tonight.

The AI forums favor Vonzell going home tonight, and support for Carrie waning. Small sample size, but assuming AI forum fans are the type that do a majority of the voting, these threads are worth looking at.

People voted for Bo and Anthony, Carrie and Vonzell last:
http://forums.prospero.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=foxidol&amp;msg=519469.1

People think Vonzell or Carrie will go:
http://forums.prospero.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=foxidol&amp;msg=517771.1
http://forums.prospero.com/n/mb/message.asp?webtag=foxidol&amp;msg=521391.1



So, could tonight's episode be a shocker where Carrie is bottom 2 and Vonzell gets voted off? If that happens, could Bo actually take the lead? With the market being something like:
Bo 45-50
Carrie 43-48
Anthony 4-7

Just something to savor for us Bo holders on this forum...

[GrannyMae]

Bo 45-50
Carrie 43-48
Anthony 4-7


these prices would make me moist.

i have been waiting for BO to take a lead in the market AND be in the 45 sell area. if that happened, i would sell all and take the gain. if there were a miracle carrie elimination, BO would shoot to 75 and then ANYONE holding him should sell rather than take the extra risk for such a small gain from that price point.

as long as BO does not get eliminated tonight, i'm feeling good for him making top 2. if he does that, i don't think the market will be much further than 45/55 if it were him and carrie. damn, why did vonzell have to melt down last night? carrie may have been gone if vonzell had been her normal self.

i've been reading the forum, and the carrie haters and converters sure have made an appearance today, huh?

[jasonHoldEm]

Last night was a wierd show. Anthony was probably the overall winner as far as consistency, but I don't know if that's enough to keep him out of the bottom 2 (or even necessarily prevent his elimination). Both girls had a good and a bad performance, bo had a "meh" performance and a good performance (I thought his second performance was probably the best of the night although I admit I'm biased).

While I'd pick Carrie/Vonzell as my personal bottom 2 (I voted for both Bo and Anthony last night) at this stage of the game anything could happen really.

J

[llabb]

I agree that anything can happen, of course, and last night's weird show may not change the expected course of events. Anthony may well leave tonight.

I'm just holding out some hope, because before last night's show, I thought that Anthony was 70% next to go, Vonzell 30%. Now it seems to me more like Vonzell 55%, Anthony 35%, Carrie 10%. We'll find out soon, I guess.

Granny, even if Carrie did leave, wouldn't that make Bo a definite hold? Yes, you could take some money off the table, just to lock in the profit. But even at a price of 75, laying 3-1 on Bo to win over only Vonzell and Anthony seems like a solid play. At 85+, it would be a definite sell, though, in my opinion.

[GrannyMae]

Granny, even if Carrie did leave, wouldn't that make Bo a definite hold?

not for me. my avg cost is so low, that even the slightest risk of an upset is not worth it to hold out for the extra 20 per.

stranger things have happened, and vonzell is a great talent. only fo' sure hold would be if i knew it was anthony v BO for final. not only would i hold, but i would short anthony or buy more BO's.

regardless of final 2, the market will likely never go beyond 85/15. anthony would have a $15 value just for being top 2.

VERY nervous night for me. i have held mostly all of my contracts and a bottom 2 for BO would keep me locked in again. not only that, but at final 4 anyone can go. i'll be thrilled when 9.29 rolls around unless BO is on the rail (couch?)

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/_950/hides.gif

if that happens, i will feel like an idiot for not cashing out more last week. i blame jason holdem for that tho. i was gonna sell more contracts but he went from 35 to 32 before my eyes. turns out that JHE's sell was the market mover. i refused to take 32, then while i was pouting, he dropped to 30.

i WILL find JHE if BO is gone tonight. indiana not big enough for him to hide.

http://smilies.sofrayt.com/%5E/e/rambo.gif

[jasonHoldEm]

[ QUOTE ]
i WILL find JHE if BO is gone tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

(but if Carrie goes and you get to sell all yours for a shatload more than you were going to take originally do I get invited over for some "special" treatment?) /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Tuco]

[ QUOTE ]
invited over for some "special" treatment?)

[/ QUOTE ]

mmmm. prune juice.

Tuco. &lt;----holding on to his 100 Bo's. GO HOME ANTHONY!

[GrannyMae]

GO HOME ANTHONY!

bite your tongue tuco.

we want the weakest contestant to survive. if anthony can stay it makes the future much more secure. he has been bottom 2 or 3 almost every single week so he can NOT win this competition. if he can't win, then we want him in there as long as possible.

but let's not get greedy. we will just take BO surviving.

(great 3rd show btw)

[GrannyMae]

there won't be any big surprises tonight. any time there is a big surprise, there are leaks all day. there has been no mention of shockers or surprises.

gotta be anthony or vonzell. most likely anthony

[Uglyowl]

Damn Carrie looks great tonight... ok that won't make us any money.. GO BO!

[Tuco]

Good point. I just was thinking anyone but Bo.

[ QUOTE ]
(great 3rd show btw)

[/ QUOTE ]

Tuan was a surprisingly good interview. I wish we would have asked him the percentage swapping question earlier as we kinda ran out of time. Mori was great too. The Doctor was a local story, but fun as well. Very nice guy.

Show four up later tonite, unless Bo goes home then i'm jumping of Lion's Gate.

Tuco.

[GrannyMae]

FU*K YOU SIMON

i sure wish he would stop saying she will win.

almost every poll i see has BO as the favorite of the people. simon wants carrie so he can package her nicely and make a simple record deal with a country girl that is easy to market. BO is a challenge to market.

simon's comments are purely driven by outside influence

[GrannyMae]

thank GOD he is safe

[scott8]

[ QUOTE ]
thank GOD he is safe

[/ QUOTE ] /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[wdbaker]

[ QUOTE ]
Couldn't resist.
Big rumor is that tonight's theme is country. While this would seem to be an obvious benefit to Carry, I would think she will be judged with more scrutiny b/c of her background.
Although, what the hell would Bo sing?
-SC

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell, I thought you meant AI(Artificial Intelligence), you know bot stuff etc.... /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

What a let down, I quit reading after the first post /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Am I the only one that thought that?

One Street at a Time
wdbaker Denver, Co

[scott8]

Just thought I would let everyone know that I sold my 150 BOs and am now out of the market.
Not a bad season at all. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[trole]

I think you would have been happier holding him one more week.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
thank GOD he is safe

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly, the AOL poll now has BO at 69% to win

.....wonder if that means anything

[llabb]

Congrats on your winnings. I'm debating what to do with my Bo shares myself. I am in the poor man's version of Granny's situation. I have previously sold enough to cover my costs, and I am essentially free-rolling with 25 Bo's left.

Do I sell now, sell after top 2, or hold out for the win? Or do I partial sell, partial hold the rest? Some of you are probably in the same situation, just with more shares than me.

I'm pretty confident that Bo and Carrie will make the top 2, although you never know. The risk of Vonzell taking Bo's spot seems slim to me, though.

So if I assume a Bo and Carrie finale, the likely market would be somewhere around:
Carrie 57-62
Bo 38-43

If you think Carrie is 60%+ likely to win, obviously you sell your Bo's, since you're being given the right price. My problem is that I think Bo is 50-55% likely to win, which means I should technically hold him, but I don't know if I really want to take the coin flip. Perhaps I should sell half my current shares and let the remaining half ride it out. Which would be -EV, but more conservative.

So what % likelihood do the rest of you give Bo to win over Carrie? Your thoughts on that likelihood will help me determine how much to sell or not.

And if you are going to sell, the math favors waiting until the top 2 to sell, as long as you are at least 87% sure that Bo will stay. Any less sure, and you should sell now. Of course, even if you are 90%+ sure that Bo will stay, you could choose to sacrifice some EV for conservatism and guaranteed $.

---------------

Anyway, ramblings aside, what % chance do you all give Bo over Carrie?

[Delphin]

This thread is not about artifical intelligence at all.

I expected a poker bot flame war...imagine my dissappointment.