settle a baseball debate

[schwza]

this is from the sox game last night. sox are down 2-1 in the 4th inning, but have the bases loaded with 0 outs. sox hitter (don't remember who) hits a reasonably hard grounder to first.

the first baseman blows the play, but a friend and i were arguing over where he should have gone with the ball. his claim:

if there is a 100% chance of turning a double play (2nd back to first) and a 100% chance of getting the lead runner at home (but no DP), the fielder should throw home.

i said it's better to stay out of a big inning and get 2 outs.

discuss. (fwiw, the fielder did try to go home with the ball.)

[PoBoy321]

I think that going for the double play is the better move here. Down by 2 in the 4th, 1 on with 2 outs is a far better situation to be in that down by 1 in the 4th, basese loaded with 1 out.

EDIT: Misread the OP. I've been up all night. I'm tired. I still say double play, but for different reasons.

[BWebb]

Turn two. I'd rather it be 2-2 in the 4th with a man on third and two outs than a 2-1 game with the bases loaded and 1 out situation.

[mostsmooth]

i didnt see the game but im guessing the defense was in at the corners and double play depth at ss and 2b? id say 1b comes home with a hard hit ball.

[J_V]

I go home.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Down by 2 in the 4th, 1 on with 2 outs is a far better situation to be in that down by 1 in the 4th, basese loaded with 1 out.


[/ QUOTE ]

?

[PoBoy321]

Yeah, I completely misread the OP. I'm tired. I just need to get through my exam in an hour, then I'm done and I can worry about more important things like baseball strategy.

[istewart]

Pwned. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[Gallopin Gael]

[ QUOTE ]
id say 1b comes home with a hard hit ball.

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is what that assclown tried to do. Unfortunatly he's got the hands of a catcher and dropped the ball after he picked it up. Then, in his infinate wisdom, he picked it up and threw it in the dugout while trying to get the ball to the pitcher who was covering first.

I like his bat, but not enough to overcome his D.

[Soul Daddy]

Based on the 2003 Run Expectation Table (http://www.centerfieldview.com/archives/000021.html) (First I came across in Google)

1 run scores, runner on 3rd, 2 out = 1.3848 runs
0 runs score, bases loaded, 1 out = 1.5250 runs

Based on this, it would seem the answer is get two. But I don't know how much, if at all, the values of absolute vs expected runs differ.

[jedi]

The whole reason the runner automatically runs home in that situation is a win-win scenario for the offense. If the defense goes for a double play, a run will score and you still might be left with a runner on 1st, 1 out.

If the defense goes for the out at home, you will have runners at 1st and 2nd and either 1 out, or 0 out with a run in.

That having been said, I think the correct play (and positioning) depends on the opposing pitcher. If you're facing Randy Johnson, you should be playing in and getting the out at home. If you're facing some journeyman, you'll be able to get the run back. Get the outs.

[contentless]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn two. I'd rather it be 2-2 in the 4th with a man on third and two outs than a 2-1 game with the bases loaded and 1 out situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially against the Sox.

[M2d]

who were they playing and who was on the mound against them?
if they were against some stud who wasn't going to give up that many runs, I'd go home. if it was some puss chucker who they should reasonably expect to light up in the next couple of innings, go for two.

[andyfox]

I concur.

[touchfaith]

[ QUOTE ]
if there is a 100% chance of turning a double play...

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF is a "100% chance"?

[Benholio]

What about a home-to-first double play?

edit: Why would a 2nd-1st double play be 100% here but not a home-1st?

The percentages really mess it up. The double play is almost always going to be a lower % play than the single out.

[mostsmooth]

[ QUOTE ]
The whole reason the runner automatically runs home in that situation is a win-win scenario for the offense

[/ QUOTE ]
umm, the whole reason the runner runs home is because the bases are loaded?
get back to us with a new theory when you get a chance

[The Dude]

My first reaction was "throw it home, easy decision." The reason you'd go for two is that it's usually more likely to succeed than going home. However, the table Sould Daddy posted makes me think it's much closer. It's in the 4th inning, so you can't do a straight "EV" evaluation, but I would have thought the EV was the other way around. Hmmm. I'd say if you're in the 2nd inning, turn two. Since you're in the 4th in a 1-run game, go home.

[Jack of Arcades]

Against Boston's offense, you get as many freaking outs as you can.

[pryor15]

all other things being equal, you concede the run.

of course, if david ortiz is the runner on second, you could make the arguement for going home, since that puts him on 3rd, bases loaded (and unlikely to score on a sac fly), but i still say you go for 2 and try to avoid the big inning.

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The whole reason the runner automatically runs home in that situation is a win-win scenario for the offense

[/ QUOTE ]
umm, the whole reason the runner runs home is because the bases are loaded?
get back to us with a new theory when you get a chance

[/ QUOTE ]

Crap. That's what I get for not reading the situation correctly. Ignore my post. I think it's an automatic home-1st double play then.

[The Dude]

[ QUOTE ]
Crap. That's what I get for not reading the situation correctly. Ignore my post. I think it's an automatic home-1st double play then.


[/ QUOTE ]
You are still retarded. We were given two choices, and a home-1st double play wasn't one of them.

[Rick Diesel]

It clearly depends on who is pitching and who is on deck for the Sox. If you have a ground ball pitcher and the batter on deck is a good double play candidate, then you have to get the out at home and try to roll the double play on the next batter.

[Shajen]

[ QUOTE ]
It clearly depends on who is pitching and who is on deck for the Sox. If you have a ground ball pitcher and the batter on deck is a good double play candidate, then you have to get the out at home and try to roll the double play on the next batter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. I was just going to post the same thing.

Like everything else, it depends.

[Your Mom]

[ QUOTE ]
The whole reason the runner automatically runs home in that situation is a win-win scenario for the offense. If the defense goes for a double play, a run will score and you still might be left with a runner on 1st, 1 out.

If the defense goes for the out at home, you will have runners at 1st and 2nd and either 1 out, or 0 out with a run in.

That having been said, I think the correct play (and positioning) depends on the opposing pitcher. If you're facing Randy Johnson, you should be playing in and getting the out at home. If you're facing some journeyman, you'll be able to get the run back. Get the outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would never play in here with the bases loaded and no one out in the 4th inning. That would be terrible baseball.

[GuyOnTilt]

If it was a hard hit grounder and he didn't have to move more than one step to either side, it should be a routine double play even if he throws home as long as they stay inside-inside with it.

GoT

[jedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Crap. That's what I get for not reading the situation correctly. Ignore my post. I think it's an automatic home-1st double play then.


[/ QUOTE ]
You are still retarded. We were given two choices, and a home-1st double play wasn't one of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh well. I give up /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[goofball]

Seriously. 3-2-3 double play. That's the only option.

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously. 3-2-3 double play. That's the only option.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, the OP did not make that one of the options.

[BWebb]

What is the deal with everyone trying to change the situation. There were two possible outcomes give, force and home or a traditional double play. Both plays have a 100% success rate, which would you rather have? I was going to mention the pitcher for the Sox having an effect, but I don't think they have a starter (Buerhle or Garland are their best) that would make you think it would be impossible to score off of again.

[RacersEdge]

That expected runs table someone posted should help. But that's an average across all pitchers against all hitters. If you had for example, a great pitcher in the game facing the bottom of the line-up, you could decide differently.

[htc1278]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Turn two. I'd rather it be 2-2 in the 4th with a man on third and two outs than a 2-1 game with the bases loaded and 1 out situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially against the Sox.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. The White Sox bats have started to heat up recently. I watched the game last night and I don't remember this play... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Gallopin Gael]

[ QUOTE ]
It clearly depends on who is pitching and who is on deck for the Sox. If you have a ground ball pitcher and the batter on deck is a good double play candidate, then you have to get the out at home and try to roll the double play on the next batter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Danny Haren was on the mound, Scott Hatteberg is the assclown that can't catch or throw and Boston had the 8 hitter (Mirabelli) on deck with Bellhorn in the hole and Damon to follow if it got that far (which it did).

Hatteberg was going home all the way, he just couldn't execute.

Hope that helps.

[MoreWineII]

Home to first.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on the 2003 Run Expectation Table (http://www.centerfieldview.com/archives/000021.html) (First I came across in Google)

1 run scores, runner on 3rd, 2 out = 1.3848 runs
0 runs score, bases loaded, 1 out = 1.5250 runs

[/ QUOTE ]

0 runs score, 2nd/3rd, 2 ours = 0.5515 runs

1.525(1-x)+0.5515x=1.3848
x=.144

If there's a 14.4% chance of turning the 3-2-3, go home, otherwise, take the DP. (Ignoring all other influences)

-d

[Amid Cent]

The correct play is to turn the double play and stay out of a big inning. Remember, it's only the 4th inning. Were this the 8th or 9th, it's a different answer.

Besides, if your offense can't score one run in the final 5 innings, you have bigger problems.

[pryor15]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It clearly depends on who is pitching and who is on deck for the Sox. If you have a ground ball pitcher and the batter on deck is a good double play candidate, then you have to get the out at home and try to roll the double play on the next batter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Danny Haren was on the mound, Scott Hatteberg is the assclown that can't catch or throw and Boston had the 8 hitter (Mirabelli) on deck with Bellhorn in the hole and Damon to follow if it got that far (which it did).


[/ QUOTE ]

the important part of that bit of info is that, baring a miracle, bellhorn's not gonna get doubled up. but, he very well could K, so the double play, if you can't get mirabelli, gives you a potential inning-ender in bellhorn. if you let that lineup get to damon w/ runners on and runs already scored...well, then you just cross your fingers and hope for the best.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on the 2003 Run Expectation Table (http://www.centerfieldview.com/archives/000021.html) (First I came across in Google)

1 run scores, runner on 3rd, 2 out = 1.3848 runs
0 runs score, bases loaded, 1 out = 1.5250 runs

Based on this, it would seem the answer is get two. But I don't know how much, if at all, the values of absolute vs expected runs differ.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Based on the 2003 Run Expectation Table (http://www.centerfieldview.com/archives/000021.html) (First I came across in Google)

1 run scores, runner on 3rd, 2 out = 1.3848 runs
0 runs score, bases loaded, 1 out = 1.5250 runs

Based on this, it would seem the answer is get two. But I don't know how much, if at all, the values of absolute vs expected runs differ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Run expectancy isn't what matters here - it's WIN expectancy. They're not the same, because all runs do not have the same effect on win expectancy. A run that ties the score, or puts you ahead 1 run has a GREATER effect on a teams win expectancy than a run scored that increases their lead from 2 to 3 runs.

Obviously, throwing home greatly increases the odds of allowing 0 runs (from 0% to 32%). The chances of allowing at least 2 runs however increase from about 26% to just over 40%. Big innings, of course, are MUCH more likely after throwing home.

Throwing home however does have the edge in the "important" runs. If it were the bottom of the 9th, getting the double play in this situation would be a huge mistake. This would reduce a team's win expectancy from 45% to about 36%.

The earlier the game gets, the more the balance shifts in favor of the strategy to minimize expected runs (double play). Earlier in the game, the difference between a run that gives a team a 1 run lead and a run that gives them a 2 run lead is much smaller than later in the game. In the 9th, the 2nd run is infinitely more valuable than the 3rd run. In the 8th, it is only 3.64 times more valuable - in the 4th it is a meager 1.21 times as valuable.

The double play is the easy choice in the 4th inning(I believe this is true for the 5th and 6th as well). In the 8th or 9th, throwing home is better. The 7th is a close call, but I'd lean towards getting the double play. I haven't done all the math to verify this, by the way.