10/20 AKs ...what's my line?

[Surfbullet]

Villain is a 46/10/1.4 over 161 hands. I'd seen him be aggressive on the flop in prior hands, but hadn't seen his holdings b/c the hands didn't make it to showdown.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (11.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 11.25 BB

What's my line here? 3bet the flop and fold to a turn c/r? How's my smoothcall to raise the turn?
Anyone cap the turn?
If this guy raises the flop he leads the turn nearly always, draw or no.

Surf

[Chobohoya]

I threebet this flop. I think waiting until the turn here is a little FPS.

With this turn, assuming a flop 3-bet that got called, I would fold to the C/R. He's not bluffing, and you have 1 pair.

Really don't cap the turn.

[mperich]

I 3bet the flop. It will make this hand easier to play on later streets. Anyone else bet this river? I just cant help myself...

-Mike

[Chobohoya]

I don't think there's any value in betting the river.

[Magikist]

I disagree about 3-betting this flop. Against a player like this, he'll just cap with so many things. In the short 20 games, flop information is almost useless.

In almost everyway, waiting to raise the turn is a superior line. You get more money in the pot and allow your opponent to be overaggressive on a big street. Against some opponents, you can safely fold to a 3-bet. In this case, with the only read being "aggressive" and on such a draw-ridden board, there's no way you can fold. Obviously, you also have a lot of outs against two pair and the pot is large.

If the river brings a diamond or another draw completing card, maybe then you can consider folding (although I'd probably still call). As it happened, your opponent checking a river brick, you must value bet. Easy fold to a checkraise. If you can't fold to a c/r, then don't bet.

[Magikist]

Are you kidding? After all the aggression he's shownn, how can he go for the checkraise, expecting the average player to bet? Do you think he put's OP exactly on AQ?

No. His line SCREAMS pair with a draw. Hands like T9, A9, Adxd will all pay off. There is much value in betting this river.

[Chobohoya]

The tone of your post seems very confident to me, but I'm not so sure about [ QUOTE ]
Hands like T9, A9, Adxd will all pay off. There is much value in betting this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think opponent has T9 or A9 here? This guy is 1.4 post-flop aggression. Given the flop and turn play, I say again, there's not a lot of value in betting the river.

[jdock99]

On the river to me opponents line means 1 of 2 things: 1.) He has 2 smaller pair and is scared Q gave you 2 pair; or 2.) He was semi-bluffing/value raising a big draw like 79d or A9d and is giving up now that it missed. If it is case #1 and you bet he will call you with the best hand, and if it is case #2 he will probably call if he has the Ad and fold if he doesn't. So it would seem most of the time you bet you will only get called by a better hand; but many players make such horrible river calls (probably just to see what you had) that it is probably a lot closer than one would originally think. If you do decide to bet river and are raised, I think it is a pretty safe fold unless you are up against a true maniac, which these numbers dont support. These numbers support he is your typical loose aggressive Party 10-20 6 max player.

I do not think you can fold the turn to a cr at any point no matter what the action is on the flop, because so many loose aggressive players love to put in as much $$ as they can on the turn with big draws- (ie straight flush draws/top pair + nut flush draw) on boards like this (Which almost never works and invariably costs them lots of $$ in the long run, but they do it anyways because they are bad players). I would probably 3 bet the flop and call down if flop is capped, and if villian just calls the flop bet and checks the turn, bet the turn and call down if raised. I wouldn't feel great about my hand, but feel opponent would be semi-bluffing/draw raising enough to make this line profitable. The river decision I think is real interesting and I am not sure what I would do (probably check), nor am I 100% sure what I would do if scare card came on river and villian still bet (probably call) although I do not necessarily think these are the right lines, I just normally check/call rivers when I am not sure what to do.

[wheelz]

I play it the same except I can't help myself on the river... it's an easy fold to CR and you'll see some crazy holdings sometimes.

[Magikist]

What hand do you put him on that would check the river but still beats OP?

[Chobohoya]

[ QUOTE ]
What hand do you put him on that would check the river but still beats OP?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with this is that the check is so weird. It's very difficult to say what he has. Offhand I would say the following are possible: AT, A8, A7, and T8.

Bad players do strange things sometimes. I'm sure that you have sometimes seen people just stop betting for no discernable reason. This may be one of those times.

[wowacedude]

I can't resist betting river. Right or wrong, i dont know.

[Surfbullet]

Villain had ATo and MHWNG. I have no idea what possessed him to check the river - maybe he thought I'd fall for the c/r, maybe he put me on exactly AQ. He was very erratic.

Surf

[Grisgra]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain had ATo and MHWNG. I have no idea what possessed him to check the river - maybe he thought I'd fall for the c/r, maybe he put me on exactly AQ. He was very erratic.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Good check, then /images/graemlins/smile.gif. I check this as well -- I'm tired of being Mr. Smart Value-Better and end up being shown a scaredy-pants two pair in exactly this situation. This is a weird line, and I'm happy for a free showdown on the river.

[Kakafoni]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain had ATo and MHWNG. I have no idea what possessed him to check the river - maybe he thought I'd fall for the c/r, maybe he put me on exactly AQ. He was very erratic.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Given the turn action (u checkraising and calling his 3 bet) it seems pretty clear that u have a bigger ace. In that case, u might have AK, AQ or AJ. It's a decent chance an opponent will bet AK and possibly AJ anyway, which will take away the risk of being raised the times u have AQ.

I would bet the river and really hate myself the times I get raised.