To continuation bet or to not continuation bet...

[llabb]

Many thanks to all the regulars who post great advice and strategic thoughts here. I have been lurking for a while now, reading and learning and adjusting my game.

I have tightened up my early game and opened up my bubble stealing sufficiently. My biggest problem is whether or not to make continuation bets in the early levels. I used to make CB's, but after browsing here and Dali's HH, I tightened up stopped, saving chips for the bubble.

However, I found myself questioning this strategy. If I raise early, and there is only 1 caller, to not continuation bet seems like it's just giving up on an available pot you could well win. After searching and reading further posts, it seemed that some still recommended CB's. So I started again too.

Now, I usually find myself C-Betting, and it takes the pot down maybe 60% of the time. But when it doesn't work, I find myself losing a lot of chips, up to 400 on level 3 (150 PF raise, 250 CB). This can be quite damaging, and forces me to start going all-in on level 4. Even if I last, I have lost too much FE to effectively use normal bubble strategy later. So what do you guys think, is it worth it; do most of you continuation bet or not?

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Here is an example of the type of situation I might find myself in:

$50+5 Party Poker SNG
Level 2, Big Blind: 30
All stacks 700-1300, no reads.

Hero is UTG+1 with AKs.
1 fold.
Hero raises to 90
4 folds.
CO calls 90.
3 folds.

Flop: Q 9 7 rainbow

Hero's move? Pot is 205. Continuation bet would be about 135-150. Is this the right play?

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For those of you who do not make a continuation bet here, would you make one if the positions were reversed (you raised from CO, the only limper who was in UTG+1 was the only caller) and it was checked to you?

Would you make it if the setup was the same as the original example, but you had QQ, and the Flop was K 8 3 rainbow? What if the positions were reversed, and it was checked to you?

For those of you who would make a continuation bet in either spot, do you still make it when the blinds rise in levels 3 & 4?

These are just two examples, for discussion purposes. Looking for your thought processes for when to make continuation bet or not. Many thanks in advance.

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[pergesu]

Yes to all three.

It just doesn't make sense not to make a continuation bet when you're heads up. He's 3-1 against hitting the flop, and you said a bet wins about 60% of the time. Good enough for me.

[jpg7n16]

[ QUOTE ]
....Now, I usually find myself C-Betting, and it takes the pot down maybe 60% of the time. But when it doesn't work, I find myself losing a lot of chips, up to 400 on level 3 (150 PF raise, 250 CB)...continuation bet or not?....

[/ QUOTE ]
So you've got a 150PF raise and 250CB... 60% it works; 40% they call/raise. Let's assume you lose every time they call/raise (which won't happen)

So PF the pot is 300 + blinds so let's say 375? Since you made the PF raise (which you have to do anyways... if you hit the flop or not doesn't concern that bet). That amount is a "sunk cost" (gotta love accounting /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

Your problem now should be spending 250 to earn 375. 60% it works... 40% it doesn't.

.6(375)+.4(-250)=125

You can expect to recieve 125 for a 250 bet. 50% of the investment. With that size bet you only need to win 2/5 (40%) to break even. With a 1/2 pot bet, you only need to win 1/3 (33_1/3%) to break even.

Since you're winning more than that, you should be gaining chips. Keep it up.

[Unarmed]

No to all four, and no one will agree with me except maybe Yugo. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[sofere]

IMO your continuation bet is too big...especially on a rainbow flop. 100-135 would be better (I would also bet this amount if I hit). I just switched over to party from stars. On Stars...with the deeper stacks, I'd make these continuation every time and they work well. On Party (i've played about 150 11s and 25 22s so no sample size) I find I get called more often than not.

I tend to not make these continuation bets and save my chips for pushing later on. Besides, I get paid off more often than not when I hit anyways.

[shejk]

I make all four of them. I find I get called much less than 60%.

[llabb]

I'm surprised at the lopsided results of the poll so far. Since Aleo's guide advises that you only bet post flop with TPGK or better, and since people advocate playing ultra-tight in the early levels, I thought the responses would be more split.

Dali's hand histories show him raising with AK, getting a single caller who had limped before him, and a rag-flop, 2 spades. It is checked to him, and he does not C-Bet, but also checks. This could well be advertising, since he wouldn't want to show that he makes CB's and "always has a hand," but it seems consistent with other regulars' advice.

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Jpg, I understand that simple math says it is +EV to make this play. Even if you get called half the time, it's +EV to make the play betting the entire pot-1 chip.

The real question that I was hoping for discussion on, is whether this amount of chips is worth usually sacrificing a ton of FE and not being able to play the bubble effectively.

Perhaps the poll would be better off asking if you make this play at certain blind levels. My thinking is that Level 1, it's probably worth the chips, since you still have a healthy stack left. Level 2, it gets questionable.

At Level 3, the 30-40% of the time it doesn't work, you will find yourself down 350-400 chips. If you have, say, 950-ish to begin with, you now have 550-600 and have crippled yourself.

Unarmed and Sofere, is this the reason why you do not continuation bet?

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For those of you who are only answering the poll, it would be quite interesting to get your thoughts and analysis.

On one hand, it is clearly +EV to win chips with continuation bets. But is it really worth crippling your tournament 30-40% of the time? Isn't the good SNG player's bubble stealing skills worth more than this type of gamble?