Call this down?

[beta1607]

7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.5, Bring-In $2 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street

Seat 1: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif___completes
Seat 2: xx xx J/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls
Seat 3: xx xx K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___folds
Hero: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___brings-in___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/club.gif___folds
Seat 8: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds

4th Street

Seat 1: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif___double bets
Seat 2: xx xx J/images/graemlins/club.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Hero: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls

5th Street

Seat 1: xx xx 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets
Hero: K/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls

seems like folding 4th is the smart play - but if I always made the smart play that would be boring.

[lstream]

Seat 1 sure looks like he has a pocket pair of some sort. It is very unlikely he is betting a three flush on third given how many spades you have, and how many players complete with a baby three straight?

If he has a pocket pair, you are a significant underdog even with your four flush. Unless you know he completes with nothing (as several players at 5/10 do), then a fold seems like the best course of action.

I hate the situation on fifth - unless villain has a history of completing with nothing, you are almost certainly beat. You lose this hand about 4 times out of 10 even if you assume he did not start with a pair. I would also guess that 8 or 9 times out of ten, villain has a pocket pair given the betting action. With the prospect of three more big bets to find out, folding looks the right thing to do. I will almost never fold a flush, but if there was ever a time, this is it.

[jon_1van]

Carlos is gonn rip you for this /images/graemlins/smile.gif
[ QUOTE ]
seems like folding 4th is the smart play - but if I always made the smart play that would be boring.

[/ QUOTE ]

That said...I fold 4th, and I fold 5th. I fold 5th mostly because if he doesn't have the FH now he very well might make it later. But I'm guessing he already has it.

[Bartholow]

I think you can call on 4th, there's a good chance he just has 2 pair, although the pot being relatively small might tilt it to a fold.

On 5th you should fold.

[FeliciaLee]

There are so many good opportunities in Stud. So many ways to make money.

This is not one of them. Save your battle for another hand.

Felicia /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[RandomUser]

This used to to be one of my biggest leaks (and still is, sometimes, when I get bored).

Heads up, you should fold on 4th. If he has 2 pair already, you are nearly a 2-1 underdog.

If the other person calls, it is closer.

pokenum -mc 500000 -7s ks 3s 2s 9s - qd qh 7s 7c / jc kd 4c 6s
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks 9s 3s 2s 193513 38.70 306487 61.30 0 0.00 0.387
7s 7c Qd Qh 306487 61.30 193513 38.70 0 0.00 0.613

[Bartholow]

First off, that's more like a 3-2 underdog really. And you are getting better than 3-2 on your money; if we assume you don't have to call the river if you don't hit, your effective odds are something like 48-30, so that's actually pretty much exactly the same as your equity. If you assume that you can get another bet out of him if you hit, you have profit.

On the other hand, if he does have trips you are in much worse shape, so I guess I shouldn't have been too lazy to do the math earlier. The pot is small enough that you should definitely fold against trips and probably fold in general.

[Michael Emery]

Fourth is a fold. Your not in great shape against two pair in this relatively small pot and you're in terrible shape against trips. If its trips he'll fill up approximately 1/3 of the time while you make your flush approximately 1/2 the time. When you both make it, needless to say, it will be ugly for you. Also, to most soild players your hand (flush draw) will be fairly obvious. Fifth is a no brain fold. Expect him to be full here 90% of the time already, as he completed into two higher upcards on third.

Mike Emery

[CarlosChadha]

Hi,

Heh, guess you know me well, huh jon? Actually calling on 4th with a live 4 flush vs a paired door card is a mistake that I used to do a lot, and see other people do regularly. Barthalow's math was pretty much right on, plus the person with 2 pair can always fill up later. But actually for being the person with the paired doorcard on many occasions I know that it is very easy to read someone for a 4 flush when they call your paired doorcard, so it *should* be easy to throw away the 2 pair when the opponent hits a 3rd suited card. I know from experience that is is often times extremely hard to do this (busted out of my first big stud tourney w/ wired As and open 7s when my opponent caught his 3rd suited card on 6th). But it is almost alway the right play. This has lead me to think that versus good players who are capable of reading you for a flush, you might want to continue vs. their paired doorcard with something like a big wired pair in the hole and a 2 suited board because then you can semi bluff when you hit a 3rd suited card on 5th or 6th. I haven't had a chance to make this play (no one I play with can consistently throw away 2 pair on 6th or trips on the river in this situation)...so I don't know if it works in practice.

Regards,
Carlos

[bigredlemon]

That sounds like a very nice play. That also got me thinking...

Suppose
Vill: [xx xx] 8s 8h Qd Check__ raises
Hero: [Ah As] Ks 5s Js __bet __??

Would you throw it away here?

It seems like he's read you for a flush by checking, but then he's representing a boat. I'm thinking fold > call > 3bet.

[beta1607]

That is an interesting scenario.

I think a lot of what is correct in this situation will depend on the quality of your opponent and the action till this point. In the party 5/10 game I would expect to see queens up or a set of 8s in this situation more then a made boat.

[CarlosChadha]

Assuming he bet the max, and you called on 4th, I would definitely fold 5th to a check raise into your really scary board. I'd say there is a good chance to a drawing dead you runner-runner As, and usually they atleast have trips. He might have Qs up or be randomly bluffing, but I think both are unlikely (in the Qs up case I think he would check call, or bet out to prevent giving you a free card in case you have just a big pair and four flush.).

[Andy B]

Yeah, fourth is a fold. I'm not saying I always do it, but it's a fold. I'm going to guess that even if opponent is the sort to raise third with a three-flush, he probably doesn't do so with two of his suit out, and the fact that you have a couple of spades in the hole makes a three-flush all the more unlikely. So it is highly likely that the other guy is full on fifth, and if he isn't he has a good chance to get there anyway. So fifth is definitely a fold.