$55 - AJs - after superstack limp

[Scuba Chuck]

I always get scared of these limps. Here's my reason for folding this hand. This was the first hand of level 4. Both stacks on my left were of the nice stealing kind.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t610)
BB (t880)
UTG (t1545)
UTG+1 (t585)
MP1 (t765)
MP2 (t3965)
Hero (t800)
Button (t850)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls t100, <font color="#666666"> <font color="red"> Hero folds... </font>

I'm pretty sure I would play this hand often, but this just didn't "feel" right. I usually love the overbet to steal the blinds and take the limpers chips, as this allows me a little more breathing room. I just can't find a serious reason for big stack to limp unless he has a monster or a small pair (which he might call with).

[NYCNative]

You folded with position to a call with suited AJ? Even if he has Aces you can beat him with the nut flush if you get lucky. All for a call! Geez... If you're afraid of a reraise, simply don't raise it up. But you have to see the flop!

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
You folded with position to a call with suited AJ? Even if he has Aces you can beat him with the nut flush if you get lucky. All for a call! Geez... If you're afraid of a reraise, simply don't raise it up. But you have to see the flop!

[/ QUOTE ]

I suggest reading these forums very often. Your logic here is way off.

[dfscott]

I think this might be MUTB -- IMHO, with more chips, big stacks will limp with suited connectors and pocket pairs, looking to flop a big draw or set. That said, maybe the 1000 chips at the 55s aren't enough to do that, but I've definitely seen it at PokerStars.

[Scuba Chuck]

LOL. NYC, how much do you understand SNG late play strategy? If you don't know by now, calling here is a leak! The move here is allin or fold.

[Jman28]

I think I like your fold, absent of any reads. AJs is a hand we overvalue often.

[NYCNative]

[ QUOTE ]
LOL. NYC, how much do you understand SNG late play strategy? If you don't know by now, calling here is a leak! The move here is allin or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]Oh right, seeing flops is bad. You have a hand perfect to bust a big pair depending on the texture of the flop and you're faced with a call. You people and your all-or-nothing strategies slay me.

Here are the possibilities if villain has a monster:

1) Villain has a monster. You go all-in and you're a huge dog. You are probablty out of the tournament. You lose.

2) You fold. Good fold but you'll never know if it was a good fold or if you just folded to a coin-toss or a weaker Ace.

3) You call. See a flop. If it doesn't feel right or he is betting into you too heavile (you have position, remember?) you fold. You lose a hundred bucks. You are still alive in the tourney.

If the Villain doesn't have a monster:

1) You go all-in and he folds his hand. Yay. Beats losing a small pot, sure, but it's still essentially the blinds that you risked your whole tourney for.

2) You go all-in and he decides that he has the chip-stack to gamble. Your tournament survival is based on a coin flip that you're a slight dog to if he has a small PP.

3) You call and see the flop. An Ace or Jack or two spades show up - maybe any combination of the above. Or not. Either way, you are acting after him. You can decide.

Examining risk vs. reward, the choice seems obvious to me.

What's wrong with this logic?

[curtains]

Allin (they are rarely slowplaying a big hand at these levels from my experience, especially when they are a giant stack.)

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
What's wrong with this logic?

[/ QUOTE ]

These blinds rise too rapid for how too few chips there are compared to the number of players. 100 chips is a very valuable commodity here to not just throw away.

There are some subtle game strategies you're seriously missing. But, feel free to play the way you do. I feed on people like you, when I reriase/push you allin from some other position. pzwned.

Scuba

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Allin (they are rarely slowplaying a big hand at these levels from my experience, especially when they are a giant stack.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn Curtains. You're getting real push happy lately.

[fortextreme]

I push here. He raises with any ace that beats you. I can't see him limping with KK, QQ, or JJ. So you are either up against aces, an under pair, a worse ace, or just a worse hand (suited connectors, KQ, etc.) .

You're short stacked and if he calls it's worth it to race and double up here. You can't always be afraid of aces, it's not the only thing people are limping with. Are you folding KK here if he limps because you think he has aces?

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I just can't find a serious reason for big stack to limp unless he has a monster or a small pair (which he might call with).

[/ QUOTE ]

Or just wants to see a cheap flop and has decided that you're tight enough that you're unlikely to come in very often here.

This limp can definitely be a monster, but I'm not going to take it too seriously unless the big stack has been coming into a lot of pots raising. I really think you need to play this hand.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Allin (they are rarely slowplaying a big hand at these levels from my experience, especially when they are a giant stack.)

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn Curtains. You're getting real push happy lately.

[/ QUOTE ]

?? You have a very good hand and only 8x the BB. Some big stack limps for 100, which means they are likely an idiot. I don't see any reason not to push here.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think you need to play this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, see this is precisely where I disagree. I don't think I need to play this hand. If I felt that urge, the need to play this hand, I think this hand is a little easier to move in on. That being said, read my opening analysis.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I just can't find a serious reason for big stack to limp unless he has a monster or a small pair (which he might call with).

[/ QUOTE ]

If your opponents played with reason, you wouldn't play with them so much. The guy probably has J9s and learned that it's a tricky little hand that you like to see flops with from watching the WPT.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Allin (they are rarely slowplaying a big hand at these levels from my experience, especially when they are a giant stack.)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Damn Curtains. You're getting real push happy lately.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



?? You have a very good hand and only 8x the BB. Some big stack limps for 100, which means they are likely an idiot. I don't see any reason not to push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I do like your line. And I think it works. The reason I hesitate here is the sheer volume of his stack. I think there's a higher probability of a call than normal. Especially with a hand like 44+.

Furthermore, I don't feel that desperate at 8xBB. I have plenty of room to maneuver considering the stacks to my left and time available. It's the first hand at this blind level.

That being said, I think pushing here is good too. My thoughts are that there is the following probabilities:

A) AA/KK ~ 5%
B) pocket pair (22-88) 25% (50/50 chance he'll call)
C) other (type of hand that would fold to an allin)

Add this to the fact that there is still 3 left to act behind me ...it just didn't feel right.

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
If your opponents played with reason, you wouldn't play with them so much.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL..

I also think this is a push against most players. I think you are a little more desperate than you presume, but not by much.. Still, what's in the middle plus a possible fold is worth the push to me.

[hansarnic]

Easy easy push for me.

9 times out of 10 the reason he is limping here is that he has something that wants to take a flop but he knows raising commits him to calling a push from anyone left to act.

With the monster stack he's raising any PP, and any A that dominates you. So barring AA / KK (which it's true you will sometimes see played like this) you're ahead.

And you could do with the chips...

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I hesitate here is the sheer volume of his stack. I think there's a higher probability of a call than normal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Did he grow that stack by making a bunch of marginal +CEV calls? Or is this a no-reads situation where such would be a likely conclusion?

[schwah]

this is a pretty easy push unless you have a read to tell you otherwise.

it's pretty rare to see someone open limp from co+1 with something that dominates you. i think you will very rarely be worse than a coinflip.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with this logic?

[/ QUOTE ]
The main problem with your logic is that it is unfashionable. People will call you weak.

[Phil Van Sexton]

I think pushing with hands like this on level 4 is essential in the 1000 chips games. There always seems to be a couple big stacks who like to limp and complicate all your steal opportunities.

It's basically the same concept as pushing after a bunch of limpers on level 3. These guys just want to see a cheap flop with an indifferent hand (ie 33, A4s, QT).

The main difference is that you are more likely to be called on level 4. However, I think you will be called less often than you think, so AJ is plenty good enough to push here.

[stripsqueez]

this is an auto push for me

talking yourself into believing that limpers at this level have a monster is a losing mindset - its way more likely that they are limping because they are bad - when a big stack limps its usually because they have chips and like to play a lot

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

The main problem with your logic is that it is unfashionable. People will call you weak.

[/ QUOTE ]

I certainly think this is part of it, but I'm not sure it's all of it. This is one of the more reasonable situations I've seen to just call with 8 BB left, but I'm still not convinced that this plan is best. Much depends on how bigstack has been playing; if he's been quite passive and is likely to check to me on the flop, then this plan is somewhat more attractive. I'd also want some sense whether he'd pay me or not if I caught a piece of flop. I'm also curious what you would plan to do if your call attracts a push behind you. Are you calling the push in that situation?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
I just can't find a serious reason for big stack to limp unless he has a monster or a small pair (which he might call with).

[/ QUOTE ]

I got one...to make players fold AJs w/o a fight?

[beeyjay]

I think I push pretty easily here.

[swarm]

Your 8-handed for christ sakes... PUSH! There is very few chances 8-handed where you get to be the first one to push into the pot, especially with a big stack behind you. I've seen a lot of limping by big stacks in the 55's with marginal holdings and they hardly ever call my pushes. Even when they do I usually am a favorite.

Your so far from the money it's not even funny. If you push and take the blinds you move to 1050 and now can start applying some pressure of your own. The ones that make the money when it's 8 handed in the 55's is the one that nuts up and starts being aggressive and takes some chances.

Allow this and you are going to allow the big stack to cut into you all day. Send a message that if he is going to come through you he better come strong with a good hand.

[RackHama]

First off, I am new to posting but have read the forums for about 2 years. Thanks to everyone who has helped with my game. I welcome criticism so go ahead and bring it on. I still have a lot to learn.

I tend to agree with NYC here. I have been trusting my reads a lot lately (well, I should say I have been having success when I trust them) so if my read based on previous action at the table was a monster then I will believe it. But when I believe it I call, not fold. I think getting to see the action of the rest of the table preflop (and big stacks reaction to any raises pre-flop) and the big stack's post-flop action is a huge help to letting you know where you stand in the hand more clearly.

If I don't have a strong read then I am pushing because the money in the pot already is not insignificant. But I would have to be extremely confident I was dominated to fold here.

I am also likely wrong about everything I said, but I gotta start posting sometime.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I tend to agree with NYC here. I have been trusting my reads a lot lately (well, I should say I have been having success when I trust them) so if my read based on previous action at the table was a monster then I will believe it. But when I believe it I call, not fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

With deep stacks I think this is fine thinking. But you only have 8 BBs. If you think he has a monster, there are going to be very, very few flops where you get the chance to double up, and it's going to be hard to make any intermediate gains other than busting or doubling up in this case. Because your stack is only 8 BBs, the implied odds aren't good enough to make calling worthwhile. What I mean by this if you're unfamiliar with implied odds can be explained quickly as follows : If you had 50 BBs and thought you could double up if you flopped good, then it becomes a better call, because you gain enough on the rare occasions that you win to make it a good bet; in this situation, though, with only 8 BBs, you're losing money on average calling. Save the extra BB and use it to put a little extra mustard on your pushes an orbit or two down the road.

If you don't think he has a monster and think he'll pay you off if you hit an A or J, then you're probably getting good odds to call. I don't know how likely this is, though.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
I am also likely wrong about everything I said, but I gotta start posting sometime.

[/ QUOTE ]

Correct (about the latter statement, that is -- I'll withold judgement on the former). In any case, posting incorrect analysis will teach you more than just reading, so good job posting.

And welcome to the forum.