JJ on the bubble. Small stack almost blinded out. Do I call a push?

[octaveshift]

Is the right play to call here, or wait for SS to blind out?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1290)
SB (t2870)
BB (t600)
UTG (t3240)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t1500</font>, Hero...????

[willie]

call.

he's not dead yet and if you double you play for first.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
call.

he's not dead yet and if you double you play for first.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if I told you this was a $215?

[curtains]

You should call, and if you told us its a $215 you'd be a liar because there arent enough chips in play. The SB isnt almost blinded out yet. If he was allin with 5 chips maybe itd be close, but 600 is too much.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
call.

he's not dead yet and if you double you play for first.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if I told you this was a $215?

[/ QUOTE ]

call faster?

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

You should call, and if you told us its a $215 you'd be a liar because there arent enough chips in play. The SB isnt almost blinded out yet. If he was allin with 5 chips maybe itd be close, but 600 is too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my question was more to shed light on whether the play would change based on buy-in. I should have phrased it better.

Is there ever a level where a fold here makes sense?

I called, BTW.

[Sykes]

Here's an odd one. Why would UTG risk half of the 2nd largest stack if he's just making an opening raise. A raise of 8x bb (again, enough to call an all-in if he has to) looks suspicious and probably means I'm holding the nuts hand (AA/KK/QQ/AK).

Or it could be a total bluff, but I doubt it and my instict here would be to fold with no reads.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's an odd one. Why would UTG risk half of the 2nd largest stack if he's just making an opening raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, exactly. I wasn't sure what to make of it either.

I took it to mean "I have a marginal hand that I don't want action with."

I was right - he had KQ.

Knowing that, I am happy with the call. I just wanted to make sure it was correct as I have been folding JJ and QQ lately when I should have been calling.

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
I was right - he had KQ.

Knowing that, I am happy with the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait wait wait, u DO NOT want to call if he pushes and flips over KQ. He shold be doing this w/ any two cards, so the call is fine on THAT basis, not because he specifically had KQ this hand.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

Wait wait wait, u DO NOT want to call if he pushes and flips over KQ. He shold be doing this w/ any two cards, so the call is fine on THAT basis, not because he specifically had KQ this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you are saying that if I somehow _knew_ he had KQ, I should have folded, because it's a coinflip?

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Wait wait wait, u DO NOT want to call if he pushes and flips over KQ. He shold be doing this w/ any two cards, so the call is fine on THAT basis, not because he specifically had KQ this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you are saying that if I somehow _knew_ he had KQ, I should have folded, because it's a coinflip?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if that's the right answer but for me, the answer if yes.

If it's truly a coin-flip, I'm busting out 1/2 the time and still on the bubble (albeit, with a big stack) the rest of the time.

So, I'm either making no money or have a good shot at some money. Since I think I already have a good shot at some money, I think calling is bad if I know it's a coin-flip.

Edit: BTW, I think the raise to 1500 was to cover you and the BB so you couldn't go all-in over the top. He would fold to a re-raise by the big stack. Therefore, I think it does represent a hand that doesn't really want a lot of action.

[sofere]

If you knew he had KQ i'd fold faster superman on laundry day. Am I the only one who is advocating folding JJ here? BB has 400 left after posting (one orbit left). You have 6.5x the BB. You can fold here and push any moderately decent hand in the next orbit. BB is getting 1.75:1 to call and will be calling with a wide range if you fold. If he calls, its probably close to 50/50 that he's out that hand. If he folds or survives, you still have fold equity left.

FWIW, without any calculations i think i'd need QQ+ to call here, if small stack had 100 less I'd need KK+

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
If you knew he had KQ i'd fold faster superman on laundry day.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hahahha.

I am considering buying Eastbay's SNG Tools just to get a definitive answer to this post.

[AceHiStation]

I think the only way you can call this is if you can put the bigstack on a lower PP or Ax or Kx. I probably would have made the call and been upset with myself afterwords. I say unless he's been raising every other hand, lay it down.

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the only way you can call this is if you can put the bigstack on a lower PP or Ax or Kx. I probably would have made the call and been upset with myself afterwords. I say unless he's been raising every other hand, lay it down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually i would made the hand range even wider-- ANY TWO. If i was the big stack, i'm pushing 32o+. JJ is a heavy favorite vs that range, that's why i'm calling, and hoping JJ holds up.

KQ vs JJ in ICM is very negative, about -4.6% of the prize pool.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
What if I told you this was a $215?

[/ QUOTE ]

you LIE!!! where are the other 2k chips?!?!?!?!?!?!? holla

[raptor517]

i havent really read what everyone else says, but if anyone says fold, they are wrong. the BB has WAY too many chips to make this a fold. you win this hand you are now the chip leader, and are playing for first. if you lose to A3, so what, shieeet happens. if the BB has like 3 chips left after posting, MAYBE i will fold. but if the utg player is good at all, hes pretty much raising any 2 here. however, if i was sb, i might just push any 2 against him.. yea, so anyways, autocall with JJ. GGs. holla

[Rosencrantz1]

I think Ed Miller talks a bit about this in GSIH. His advice is to play for first place and not safety play just to arrive in money. You're an underdog to a very small range of hands here and this guy could very well be playing high cards, a lower pair, even an Ax at this point.

Yeah, you'll lose it a few times, but I think you're long-term +EV with pushing here.

[swarm]

too many people are looking at the result of KQ being flipped up as the reason to fold this. You are only a dog to 3 hands... 3! You are only a slight favorite over AK, AQ, KQ (But still a favorite).

The chances that the big stack has one of these 6 hands is very unlikely. Usually you are going to be a big favorite with this call.

Folding this would be silly.

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
too many people are looking at the result of KQ being flipped up as the reason to fold this.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was the only point I was arguing. I wouldn't fold this if I couldn't see the raiser's hand.

[aces961]

Here is a question for you guys, If he flipped up qh jd and you had jh js, do you call or fold.


Also I'm wondering what you guys think your ev needs to be in this situation to call as well as what your ev with the jj is against a hand that he'd raise to 1500 with. I'm looking for actual numbers not just pretty high or something to that effect.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the only way you can call this is if you can put the bigstack on a lower PP or Ax or Kx. I probably would have made the call and been upset with myself afterwords. I say unless he's been raising every other hand, lay it down.

[/ QUOTE ]
welcome to the forum, btw ure wrong

[valenzuela]

Lets ask ICM, ICM says I need to win 66% of the time, lol the new guy was right.

[aces961]

[ QUOTE ]
Lets ask ICM, ICM says I need to win 66% of the time, lol the new guy was right.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually got .68 but its really impossible to caclulate for sure without knowing a decent amount about what the bb will call with if you fold and if you call. I'm pretty sure it can't be anything outside of .66 to .70 though.
As to what the ev of the jacks is against the guy who raised to 1500, against most opponents I have to think its probably less than the .66 you need to call but not by very much. I think this is a very borderline case and basically comes down to personal preference as to if you'd rather have a small stack going into the money more often or a large stack less often.

[curtains]

hmm yeah I just ran the hand too.....against a range like 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s, it claims its -EV to call!!!!!!!! UNBELIEVBALE!!!!

It also says to fold QQ against the following range: 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs for whatever it's worth.

[viennagreen]

if it was a 215 i would call even faster... i would expect the range of hands for UTG to be greater in a 215