The Little Eagle

[blahblah]

I've been working my ass off to get that little eagle to appear next to my name in PT. I FINALLY, after 14K hands, achieved it and celebrated what I thought would be my newfound Poker success.

Until...the NEW auto-rating rules created by excession. Now, that little eagle has been replaced by the "ultra aggressive" lit, about to explode bomb. And behold: my winnings, or lack thereof, support that my stats before the new rules were losing stats. (I'm losing hand over fist right now.)

So, any advice on what needs to change in my game now? Previously my biggest leak was being too passive before the flop. I worked hard to fix that. I'm not sure what's causing my leaks now. But I'm losing money FAST...and in need of help.

Help me get the little eagle back...please!?!?! Any advice much appreciated.

[Ghazban]

Trying to fit into one category in no-limit is not a good approach. In limit, the strategy that will win the most in most games is fairly rigidly defined by stats. In no-limit, there are many different styles that can all be successful. If the style you are shooting for is not one that fits your personal approach to the game, you will never be as profitable playing it as you would be playing a style that corresponds more directly to your natural tendencies.

Find a way to play that works for you; screw the autorate icons.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
Trying to fit into one category in no-limit is not a good approach. In limit, the strategy that will win the most in most games is fairly rigidly defined by stats. In no-limit, there are many different styles that can all be successful. If the style you are shooting for is not one that fits your personal approach to the game, you will never be as profitable playing it as you would be playing a style that corresponds more directly to your natural tendencies.

Find a way to play that works for you; screw the autorate icons.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right.

Going by auto-rate rules I would probably be some mega-tight, preflop-passive, post-flop maniac. None of that matters though, as long as you are winning.

[excession]

post some stats please - PTBB/100, Vp$iP, PFR, aggression on each street, WtSD%, W$SD%, 5 biggest losing starting hands, wins/losses from each position - then we might be able to point you in the right direction


UA and TA's are two of the best player types but if your W$SD is 35% you still have a big issue

and the guys above are quite right - the icons use is mainly for quick general assessment of another player or tables as a whole - not to guide you on your play -your PTBB/100 stat can do that ! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[blahblah]

Guys - thanks for the replies...very encouraging. Below some stats:

PTBB/100 = 7.76
VP$IP = 19.22
PFR = 7.06
Agression on each street:
Preflop = 0.53
Flop = 2.83
Turn = 2.04
River = 2.87
WtSD% = 20.99%
W$SD% = 53.79%
5 biggest losing starting hands:
65s, AJo, KQo, 87s, KJo, QTs
Win/losses (net amount) from each position:
BUTTON = 157.49
1 = 129.25
2 = 324.51
3 = (260.68)
4 = 316.47
5 = (36.00)
6 = 234.33
7 = (17.60)
BB = (198.61)
SB = (172.69)

My big issue is that my game feels incredibly streaky. If I don't have good cards I generally either win nothing or dig myself into a whole trying to make moves or bluff. For instance, my last 1-2K hands have been dismal. I've lost about $250-$300 (which is about 1/3 of what's in my Party account). Just tonight I had an amazing run of cards and made back around $110 of that.

In other words, I can't money consistently or reliably. I general have to wait for the cards to get hot for me to do OK.

I appreciate any further help!

[excession]

PTBB/100 = 7.76
VP$IP = 19.22
PFR = 7.06

These are fine. What stakes are you at? PTBB/100 target figure should be about 10 if you play 3-4 tables, but almost 8 is a good start even at lower limits.

Aggression on each street:
Flop = 2.83
Turn = 2.04
River = 2.87

These are OK too. Possibly you could be a little more aggressive on the flop but you are already almost 3 times as likely to bet/raise as call there so that is OK..

WtSD% = 20.99%
W$SD% = 53.79%

Nothing much wrong here either.
With 19% VP$IP (which is pretty tight for these tables) you should perhaps be seeing SD 2-3% more and a higher W$SD is always nice (I would expect figures more like 24% WtSD% and 56% W$SD given your tightness pre-flop) but I can’t see any real issue to be honest...it's probably just a case of reading folks better

5 biggest losing starting hands:
65s, AJo, KQo, 87s, KJo, QTs

OK just make sure that you don’t make or call raises (other than perhaps min raises) with these hands (except raising with AJ in LP if folded/limped to). I suspect that you are overplaying them. Play the suited connectors only from LP cheap in multiway pots (they also can be played more aggressively, but seeing as they are big losers for you play them rarely and cheaply for now). I used to lose with AJo and KQo too – the point is that they are good in unraised pots (as if they hit one of their cards as top pair the kicker is likely to be good) but lousy in raised ones. What’s more – if you raise I EP or MP and get a caller you don’t know whether they have called you with a small/medium pair, a weaker hand or something that dominated you. If you had limped the weaker hands and small/medium pairs will usually limp too – meaning you can spot danger much more easily (and get out cheap if needed). QTs is a nice hand if you have position – it plays well multiway I find – treat it like a suited connector – get in late and cheap in possible. Kjo is very dangerous junk (like KTo). Play it from LP if you must but you won’t be missing out on much EV by just folding it every time


My big issue is that my game feels incredibly streaky. If I don't have good cards I generally either win nothing or dig myself into a whole trying to make moves or bluff. For instance, my last 1-2K hands have been dismal. I've lost about $250-$300 (which is about 1/3 of what's in my Party account). Just tonight I had an amazing run of cards and made back around $110 of that.
In other words, I can't money consistently or reliably. I general have to wait for the cards to get hot for me to do OK.

This sounds like you are getting impatient and trying to ‘force’ wins. This can get very expensive very fast. Generally on the low stake tables, making moves is something that should be a rare thing. You can win without cards but it’s a stressful and high variance business – much better to relax and go with the flow. If you are getting bored then add a table or two. Mentally if you can get a bonus to work off so you can think ‘ching another 10c’ everytime you fold KJo in EP this may help you..

[jkkkk]

man my VP$IP is like 16, true eagle stylee.

[blahblah]

Excession - thanks for the review...very helpful and reassuring.

I'm currently playing the $50 tables and that's my bread and butter. Once in a while I attempt the $100 game and seem to consistently get my ass handed to me. It seems like a completely different game to me - far more callers, wild plays, bad beats. I will continue to dabble in the $100 game until I get it. But for now what you're seeing is entirely $50. I play exclusively on Party Poker and I have found that 2 tables at the same time is best for me. More than that I find the game becomes very mechanical and just as boring to me as a single table.

[kongo_totte]

[ QUOTE ]
PTBB/100 target figure should be about 10 if you play 3-4 tables, but almost 8 is a good start even at lower limits.



[/ QUOTE ]

8 PTBB/100 is very good. I don't like the phrase it "should be about 10". 10-11, what I hear around here is the biggest possible suistainable WR, so I think 8 would qualify as very good.

[excession]

'target' - as in something you aim for - and on the Party $50 tables 15PTBB/100 is quite doable - at least that's what I've been doing there since they doubled the stack size..I was doing 10 before they deepened the stacks and I'm certainly no great player..

[blahblah]

Based on this thread and my stats - what advice would you give for things I should focus on? Quite frankly my win rate is that way FOR THE MOMENT. 2 days ago is was down around 5-6. In other words, it isn't sustained.

I would appreciate some direction on skills I can focus on that you think would help improve my game.

Thanks again guys, this is really helpful and reassuring!

[excession]

add a third table..more hands seen=less variance and more profit

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
add a third table..more hands seen=less variance and more profit

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Adding more tables does not reduce variance.

[jkkkk]

adding tables neither reduces nor increases variance, your just playing at a faster speed.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
add a third table..more hands seen=less variance and more profit

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Adding more tables does not reduce variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

not at the single-table level, but it does at the session level.

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
add a third table..more hands seen=less variance and more profit

[/ QUOTE ]

This is incorrect. Adding more tables does not reduce variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

not at the single-table level, but it does at the session level.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not clear to me what you are saying here.

[DWarrior]

Law of averages: increasing sample size reduces standard deviation (and thus variance). Since you'll be playing 50% more hands (3 tables instead of 2), you'll see more hands per hous, thus your sample size will be increased.

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
Law of averages: increasing sample size reduces standard deviation (and thus variance). Since you'll be playing 50% more hands (3 tables instead of 2), you'll see more hands per hous, thus your sample size will be increased.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was thinking SD per x number of hands, which obviously does not change. I agree with what you are saying.

[swolfe]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not clear to me what you are saying here.

[/ QUOTE ]

SD_8table = sqrt( SD_1table^2 * 8 )

which is less than the standard deviation for a single table and the equivalent win rate (in $)

say i make $10/hr one tabling with an SD of $20/hr. if i 8-table, my winrate becomes $80/hr with an SD of $56 (see formula).

if i moved up in stakes to make the same rate on a single table my SD would be $160/hr (assuming nothing about my WR and SD changed from the move).

anyway, by session, i meant time spent playing multiple tables...there will be less variance in your multitable session results than in the same number of single table sessions lasting the same amount of time.

[Aytumious]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's not clear to me what you are saying here.

[/ QUOTE ]

SD_8table = sqrt( SD_1table^2 * 8 )

which is less than the standard deviation for a single table and the equivalent win rate (in $)

say i make $10/hr one tabling with an SD of $20/hr. if i 8-table, my winrate becomes $80/hr with an SD of $56 (see formula).

if i moved up in stakes to make the same rate on a single table my SD would be $160/hr (assuming nothing about my WR and SD changed from the move).

anyway, by session, i meant time spent playing multiple tables...there will be less variance in your multitable session results than in the same number of single table sessions lasting the same amount of time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I clearly had the wrong approach.

[TrailofTears]

Ever considered a switch to 6max? Perhaps your style would fit better there.