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View Full Version : How do u predict line movement?


RedeemerKing
05-09-2005, 02:32 PM
I guess this applies to all sports, but especially football because of the length of time the lines are available. How do you know what the line will do? How do u know to bet it and try to middle it later in the week or just holdoff for an extra half of a point. Is there any science to this? What trends, stats, etc. do u look at in trying to figure this out? Does this apply to all sports?
Any input on this subject would be greatly appreciated!


Thanks

sportypicks.com
05-09-2005, 02:35 PM
I don't think there is any fool-proof way to predict line movement.

However in the NFL, pointspreads that are at 2.5 or 3.5 go to 3 about 90% of the time. Also, spreads that are 6.5 or 7.5 tend to go to 7.

FishHooks
05-09-2005, 02:57 PM
I haven't started betting but been reading Sharp Sports betting and he's covered this. Your proboly talking about an online sportsbook am I right? That changes things, the location of the sports book, for example if its in San Diego the people in chicago might be more inclinced to bet on the Chargers so the line will move that way, and the sports book there might move the line themselves giving the Chargers worse odds knowing people will still bet on them.

In the book it seems the best time to bet is when the lines come out, because if the pros start finding mistakes then the book will pick up on the mistakes from their bets and move the line acordingly. I would guess that, if you find a line early that you like take it.