Minimum BB Downswings to expect at 10/20 6MAX and 15/30 Full?

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I am fairly comfortable with the swings at 5/10, but I have not had any really big downswings yet. Think the biggest is about 130BB.

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This will maybe be a problem. You will, soner or later, have a 300BB dowsnwing at 10/20. In $ that will about 5 times more then you ever lost. This is not easy to handle if you are unsure if u can beat the level at all.

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Both this poster (kiddo) and El Diablo have referred to 300BB downswings at 10/20 6MAX as a certainty. Is there any math to back this up? Does the SD go up enough to make the "300 BB roll = very low ROR" assumption incorrect at this level?

Or is it something more like these guys and a couple people you know have experienced 300 BB downswings at this level. In that case maybe we could say something more like "you have a decent chance of having a 300 BB downswing." Obviously the idea scares me. I moved to this level at 7K or 350BB so losing 300 isn't really wasnt an option for me. I have run well so I'd be alright now but that'd still suck pretty bad. I recently moved to 15/30 full once I hit 400BB for that level. Also running well but I still wouldn't like a 300BB downswing very much.

Whats the minimum expected "X BB downswing" to look for in the 10/20 6MAX game?

Whats the minimum expected "X BB downswing" to look for in the 15/30 game?

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Just realized 15/30 Full doesn't fit into the HUSH forum but I think this is prob the place I will find the most people who have played at both of these levels.

[stinkypete]

if you suck like me you'll probably have 400BB downswings at 10/20

[geormiet]

I have 85k hands at 10/20 6 max, and around 45k at 15/30 full.

Based on my experience, the flucations at 10/20 6max are nowhere near that of 15/30.

[Jeff W]

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Based on my experience, the flucations at 10/20 6max are nowhere near that of 15/30.

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I wouldn't go that far, but SD/100 at 15/30 full is definitely higher than at 10/20 6-max.

[BottlesOf]

Are we talking in terms of dollars or bets?

[Jeff W]

I am talking in terms of BB.

[Joe826]

The magnitude of your potential downswings is directly related to your winrate. The better your winrate, the less likely you are to go on horrible downswings. I don't exactly know how to do the math on this, though.

[Zygote]

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The magnitude of your potential downswings is directly related to your winrate. The better your winrate, the less likely you are to go on horrible downswings. I don't exactly know how to do the math on this, though.

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To know what kind of swings you will experience in an hour, you only need to know your standard deviation. The total population of a sample is contained within three standard deviations of the sample mean. Therefore, if you multiply your SD/hr by 3, you will know what kind of a possible swings to expect in any hour.

Your winrate is important (to flucuations) only if know your SD too. You can use both to figure out the range of how much you should expect to lose per hour over a given sample.

[Zygote]

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Are we talking in terms of dollars or bets?

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why would it matter?

[geormiet]

Because if I were talking dollars, of course 15/30 would be more than 10/20.

shorthanded swings are not as long as full handed swings.

[MicroBob]

I think many people are using 500BB as a safer number at 6-max (both 5/10 and 10/20).

Probably the same goes for many of the players at 15/30.


It is VERY easy to have a 100-150BB down-swing...and if your bankroll is only in the 300BB range then you are probably REALLY going to feel this. If that affects your play (meaning that psychologically a down-swing of this magnitude is THAT tough to handle) then you probably shouldn't be playing at that level.

In the very least, you should be just view it as 'taking a shot' at that level and be prepared to drop back down after a 100BB downswing or so (or wherever your comfort-level happens to be).


There was a thread in January in the general forum where a bunch of pretty good 15/30 players were reporting down-swings in the 200BB and up range...pretty much at the same time coincidentally enough.


David Ross reported that he went through a 600BB down-swing up there. Some thought it HAD to be a sign that he was tilting or just not playing very well anymore but he insisted that nothing had really changed about his game from when he was doing quite well at that limit.



I do hope you are just talking about your 'poker-only' bankroll as opposed to your total amount of money to your name.
The 300BB rule generally applies to the money that you have set aside ONLY for poker.

Hopefully you already know this...but there always seems to be a lurker or two out there who messes this up.

[ggbman]

I have less downswings and they are smaller because I am much better at short handed play so my winrate is higher. When you begin to play against better players as you do at 10-20 and 15-30, your swings will get bigger and bigger because you have less donks cushioning your bad sessions. Always have a big bankroll playing this limits, 300BB is nowhere near enough. You can lose 1/3 of that in one bad session.

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Always have a big bankroll playing this limits, 300BB is nowhere near enough. You can lose 1/3 of that in one bad session.

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Absolutely.

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The magnitude of your potential downswings is directly related to your winrate. The better your winrate, the less likely you are to go on horrible downswings. I don't exactly know how to do the math on this, though.

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To know what kind of swings you will experience in an hour, you only need to know your standard deviation. The total population of a sample is contained within three standard deviations of the sample mean. Therefore, if you multiply your SD/hr by 3, you will know what kind of a possible swings to expect in any hour.

Your winrate is important (to flucuations) only if know your SD too. You can use both to figure out the range of how much you should expect to lose per hour over a given sample.

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So only a 10K sample size at 10/20 6 MAX--yes I know that means all of this is meaningless.

SD/Hour is 20 BB.
3x20 = 60 BB equals $1200.
I'd say that is pretty much inline with my experience. Dropping 1000-1500 is pretty normal. Though it can be more like 20 minutes than an hour.

However, that is just one hour. I assume the 3x SD figure is just the general "3 SDs is a lot" type of thinking. I don't remember much about stats but what are the odds of dropping 3xSD in consecutive hours?

I've got 500BB at 15/30 now. I like what you guys are saying about a 500BB roll--it does feel a lot more comfortable. As for seperate life/poker BRs I'm not doing that at this point. I have built my roll from a free $10 bonus last October and I have confidence in my willingness to assess whether or not I can beat a given level and move down if necessary. Losing 150-170BBs twice while trying to move up to 5/10 6 MAX from 3/6 helped make me a lot more willing to move down when that was half my roll.

[mperich]

I survived on a very small bankroll for much of my fulltime "career". Especially when my winrate was low, this was asking for mental stress and uncertainty. Now that my my bankroll is 1000's of BB's, my tilt is lower, and I live a much less worriesome life. Just my experience,

-Mike