hypothetical satellite bubble

[schwza]

10 handed, 9 seats. everyone has 10k, blinds are 50/100. utg pushes. BB has AA.

if he folds, he's ~90% to get a seat. if he calls, he's closer to 80-85%. so it's an easy fold. everyone else should fold AA by the same reasoning.

so until the blinds become more significant, utg should push any 2 (assuming he believes his opponents have figured this out) and everyone should fold. right?

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
so until the blinds become more significant, utg should push any 2 (assuming he believes his opponents have figured this out) and everyone should fold. right?

[/ QUOTE ]

It works in theory, but how many people do you think fold AA in that spot?

[Big Limpin']

I will keep this in mind next time i enter a satellite with this payout structure. Where would i find these?

"I just need to place in 87 of these in a row and I'll have my WSOP ticket" /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[gumpzilla]

He just said it was 10 handed, he didn't say it started 10 handed.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so until the blinds become more significant, utg should push any 2 (assuming he believes his opponents have figured this out) and everyone should fold. right?

[/ QUOTE ]

It works in theory, but how many people do you think fold AA in that spot?

[/ QUOTE ]

i dunno... i mostly just wanted to make sure i was thinking about it right.

i've been folding pretty big hands when it got down to 3 players in a mini-step (top 2 go on) using similar thinking.

[gumpzilla]

I'm pretty sure the argument you put forth, counter-intuitive as it is, is probably correct.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
10 handed, 9 seats. everyone has 10k, blinds are 50/100. utg pushes. BB has AA.

if he folds, he's ~90% to get a seat. if he calls, he's closer to 80-85%. so it's an easy fold. everyone else should fold AA by the same reasoning.

so until the blinds become more significant, utg should push any 2 (assuming he believes his opponents have figured this out) and everyone should fold. right?

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming that people are going to act rationally, as if they fully understood all the variables present, and are playing solely to max their EV.

In real life & poker, people don't always act rationally, and they don't always make the max EV play even when they know what it is (or what it probably is). Pushing any random two is a pretty big -EV play in this spot IMO, because you will get called my some premium hands, and your benefit is very small.

If you knew all 9 players would fold even if they had AA, then yes, it goes without saying that the best play is to push.