TD2-7: am I being too predictable?

[MarkGritter]

I've been tangling HU with the guy to my right all night, since he's somewhat loose and will limp in (letting me raise to isolate) or else will defend his blind with any two cards.

If I have position with a strong one-card draw (say, 7532) the action from the first draw on will often go something like this:

1st draw: Villian draws 2-3, Hero draws 1 and pairs a 5.

Villian checks, Hero bets, Villian calls (or folds if he's still drawing 2.)

2nd draw: Villian draws 1, Hero draws 1 and gets a Q.

Villian checks, Hero checks.

3rd draw: Villian stands pat (often with a 9 or rough 8), hero draws 1.

Villian bets...

Now, I don't mind this line too much because it puts me in win maximum/loose minimum mode for the last draw. He's giving me a free card when I miss my second draw, and obligingly betting so I can raise him (and he usually calls) after the last draw, or just fold if I pair again.

Should I be thinking about mixing up my play a bit here? By predictably checking after the second draw I'm letting him stand pat with hands he might otherwise break (or even fold.) He's gone as high as a T this way.

(It was great position tonight--- this guy on my right and Chris Daddy Cool on my left. Of course, it didn't help the times I was drawing dead against CDC...)

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

If you are drawing to a seven, I think you do need to mix it up a little more after the seven. If he has limped or is defending his blind, he was likely drawing a lot rougher than you.

Of course, he may still call you on the 2nd draw and stand pat with a rough 8 or a 9. Then your draw will still have him betting at you in the last round and it will have cost you an extra bet. Do you think he would break this kind of hand (or fold) if you bet? Typically, at low stakes, I think he breaks a 10 or worse, but calls, stands pat, and bets out after you draw with any 8 or 9.

[fnord_too]

I have to think about this. I am plenty used to people staying pat with a T or J and one draw left if they think I am drawing, but I am certainly not used to the auto bet.

What does he do if you bet? What does he break? If he would bet an 8 or 7 here, but check a made 9 or T (I'm guessing he never keeps a J?), but break either of those if you bet, I think betting is clear a most of the time. I would have do some math, but if he is breaking a 9 or T (or I think even a J) there, that is a coup for you, even if you draw since you will be a dog drawing if he stays pat. Also, if he breaks and you miss, you can mix it up on the river by sometimes bettng (a lot of people just can't pull the trigger on calling with something like K high or a small pair).

I think you need to take the line you are some, but I think you should mix it up, too. Throw in the occasional stand pat and bet if he breaks and checks. (If he has gotten fed up to the point of looking you up some with busted draws this will really screw with his head if he looks you up with a hand worse than a Q.)

Unless he starts getting tricky and doing things like bluff check raising, you should have a little fun and experiment with different lines.

The biggest advantage of him expecting the line you have been taking is that you don't really have to fear getting check raised, and can value bet some marginal hands on the turn. (For instance, he checks you bet a smooth 9. You are not looking at losing more than 1BB even if he stands pat. You just stand pat behind him and check behind on the river. Someone like me will occasionally check call with a made hand or a bluff and lead the river there, but only against certain opponents and in the case of a pure bluff extremely rarely).