Ready for 10/20 after 50k hands at 5/10 SH? (stats post)

[marand]

I am currently playing 5/10 SH at Party (4-tabling).
My bankroll is big enough for 10/20 SH (about 23k), but I am not sure I am ready to move up yet.
I am fairly comfortable with the swings at 5/10, but I have not had any really big downswings yet. Think the biggest is about 130BB.

After 50k hands I can be 99% sure I am a winning player at 5/10, but my real winrate could be far from my current value.

Do you think I am ready to move up?

Feel free to comment on the following stats.

I am guessing most will say something like:
You are too tight, both pre-flop and post flop.
Play more hands in the SB against a steal raise.
Raise more from the BB.
Play more aggressively on the river.
Check/raise more.

------ Stats from General Tab more detail ------
Total hands: 51720
VPIP: 20.55%
VPIP from SB: 27.25%
Saw Flop: 27.56%
Saw Flop Not a Blind: 17.64%
Folded SB To Steal: 89.89%
Folded BB To Steal: 63.94%
Fold BB To Steal HU: 58.26%
Att. To Steal Blinds: 29.51%

Won $ When Saw Flop: 38.27%
Winrate 1.97 BB/100
Went To Showdown: 33.98%
Won $ At SD: 57.58%
Raised Pre-flop: 14.29%
Limp/Call Reraise PF: 0%

First Action On Flop After A Pre-flop Raise:
Raise: 7.96%
Bet: 63.69%
Call: 5.86%
Check: 6.25%
Check/Raise: 0.89%
Fold: 5.10%
No Flop/No Action: 10.26%

Actions- Raise% Bet% Call% Check% Fold% AggrFactor
Pre-flop: 14.25 ----- _8.30 _8.37 69.09 1.72
Flop____: _7.65 35.19 12.79 24.64 19.73 3.35
Turn____: _4.70 28.87 14.15 34.42 17.86 2.37
River___: _3.63 25.46 22.41 36.99 11.52 1.30
Total___: 10.75 13.23 11.15 17.51 47.35 2.15


When Bet/Raised/Check-Raised
Actions: Ww/oSD% Fold% WSD% W$SD%
Pre-flop: 31.66 27.29 41.05 59.00
Flop____: 29.34 24.60 46.06 57.86
Turn____: 28.73 _9.23 62.04 62.11
River___: 25.00 _0.43 74.57 84.98

When Just Called
Actions: Ww/oSD Fold% WSD% W$SD%
Pre-flop: 11.39 62.12 26.49 56.41
Flop____: _9.81 39.77 50.42 62.90
Turn____: _3.60 17.64 78.76 51.80
River___: _0.00 _0.84 99.16 35.54

Folded To River Bet: 36.92% (837 times out of 2267)

When Folds Hand:
No Fold: 16.62%
Pre-flop: 70.34%
Flop: 7.31%
Turn: 4.07%
River: 1.66%

Check Raises:
% of Possible Actions: 1.58
Flop%: 61.22
Turn%: 33.17
River%: 5.61

------ Position Stats ----------------------------
Pos Hands VP$IP CC% Win% WSF% BBwon WentSD% WonSD% PFR% RFI%
BUT 9684 22.21 0.38 11.37 46.90 0.15 42.62 60.50 18.81 _9.80
CO_ 9283 20.31 0.11 10.54 47.16 0.10 42.01 56.06 18.71 12.54
MP_ 8268 18.47 0.04 _9.82 48.18 0.10 44.01 59.37 17.84 15.30
UTG 4838 14.41 0.00 _7.48 47.96 0.08 46.24 62.37 14.28 14.24
BB_ 9772 17.33 0.00 22.13 29.30 -0.19 25.63 55.01 _5.59
SB_ 9803 27.25 0.00 11.46 39.41 -0.08 33.51 57.74 11.36 5.4

[Jeff W]

Why don't you just move up and try it out? Nothing in life is certain.

[og5]

I would take a shot after that many hands. A few things I see

VPIP: 20.55%
I think 25-27 is ideal, maybe this isn't reasonable since you 4 table.

Folded SB To Steal: 89.89%
not sure what's best but this is too high
Raised Pre-flop: 14.29%
this could be a few points higher

Att. To Steal Blinds: 29.51%
Mine is even lower than yours but I think it's been said it should be 35-40% in 6 max (this sounds absurdly high so I don't know)

Good luck!

[PassiveCaller]

People that aren't sure and have some sort of lingering doubt shouldn't move up until they deal with that.

I think dealing with the psychology and thinking it through logically is much better then making a post with your stats that no one wants to read. (I didnt)

[King Yao]

This is odd. Almost everyone I know have the exact opposite problem. For the most part, people move up in limits too fast. You have the opposite problem. You aren't moving up at all. I can't tell you the exact time to move up, how many hands you need or how much you need to have won...but it just seems obvious that you should at least check it out a bit.

[TStoneMBD]

move to 10/20 and log 100 hands at at least 10 different tables. see how many fish you think there are. if you think that the play is much more solid than at 5/10 then its very unlikely your hourly earn will increase.

[Victor]

move up but just play 2tables. if u feel u are beating the game and outplaying ppl then keep playing and add more tables as you are comfortable.

[billyjex]

You are too tight, both pre-flop and post flop.
Play more hands in the SB against a steal raise.
Raise more from the BB.
Play more aggressively on the river.
Check/raise more.

[marand]

[ QUOTE ]
You are too tight, both pre-flop and post flop.
Play more hands in the SB against a steal raise.
Raise more from the BB.
Play more aggressively on the river.
Check/raise more.

[/ QUOTE ]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
I am fairly comfortable with the swings at 5/10, but I have not had any really big downswings yet. Think the biggest is about 130BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This will maybe be a problem. You will, soner or later, have a 300BB dowsnwing at 10/20. In $ that will about 5 times more then you ever lost. This is not easy to handle if you are unsure if u can beat the level at all.

[helpmeout]

Solid enough though you'd want to have a higer VPIP because it'll drop further at 10/20.

[climber]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am fairly comfortable with the swings at 5/10, but I have not had any really big downswings yet. Think the biggest is about 130BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This will maybe be a problem. You will, soner or later, have a 300BB dowsnwing at 10/20. In $ that will about 5 times more then you ever lost. This is not easy to handle if you are unsure if u can beat the level at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Both you and El Diablo have referred to 300BB downswings at 10/20 6MAX as a certainty. Is there any math to back this up. Does the SD go up enough to make the 300 BB -very low ROR assumption incorrect at this level.

Or is it something more like you and a couple people you know experienced 300 BB downswings at this level. In that case maybe we could say something more like "you have a decent chance of having a 300 BB downswing." Obviously the idea scares me. I moved to this level at 7K or 350BB so losing 300 isn't really an option for me. I have run well so I'd be alright now but that'd still suck pretty bad.

Whats the minimum expected "X BB downswing" to look for in the 15/30 game?

[IlliniRyRy]

I don't have my PT stats handy at the moment, but I think we are nearly identical, and your mentality/style is really similar to mine as well. I'm definitely on the tighter side PF (VPIP 20%) and my PFR is 14.8 I think. I have over double your BR and still won't play 10-20, for whatever that's worth, I guess to let you know you're not alone in your reluctance to move up. I'm extremely risk averse, despite being virutally certain I'm beating the 5/10 SH. I've been under 2 BB/100 for long streaks of hands but after various adjustments over time, I've been doing well and staying above 2 over the last 30k hands or so. I made a post pretty similar to yours last week, you can search for it if you want.

[marand]

I think I will continue with 5/10 while datamining 10/20 and probably move up in june. If I feel I can't handle the swings or that I am not fairly sure I am beating the game I will move down again.

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
This will maybe be a problem. You will, soner or later, have a 300BB dowsnwing at 10/20. In $ that will about 5 times more then you ever lost. This is not easy to handle if you are unsure if u can beat the level at all.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you are saying that he shouldn't move up to $10/20 until he has lost a lot of money playing $5/10? I don't think that makes sense.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
if you think that the play is much more solid than at 5/10 then its very unlikely your hourly earn will increase.

[/ QUOTE ]

unless playing in a tougher game makes you focus on improving your game instead of putting in hours.

[kiddo]

There are maths to back it up, look in the archive.

My first 75K at 10/20 I never lost more then 180BB so its not like it happens every day. 200K hands at 5/10 I had two really ugly downswings. I play worse when I have a ugly downswing, if u arent maybe u can stop downswing a bit earlier, but most people play worse when they are running bad.

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
So you are saying that he shouldn't move up to $10/20 until he has lost a lot of money playing $5/10? I don't think that makes sense.


[/ QUOTE ]

There are a ton of players thinking like you. Saying it makes no sense to stay at level just because you been running good. If you got the money and a decent winrate why not try a higher level?

Sooner or later you will run into a really ugly bad run.

If you never lost more then $1300 before running good again maybe you aint prepared for losing $6000? This was what I said in my post.

I got a friend who didnt have one losing week in his pokerlife untill he lost +400BB at 15/30. Before that he had played for 7 months making +$80K so of course he could afford +$12K. But if you never lost more then $3K before it can be very hard to keep up your normal game when this happen.

Yes, you can go down one or two levels and start over again. But some people dont, they stay at the higher level because they were doing so great there before so they know for a fact that this is just a bad run. But the fact is that their winrate is so small that they will have enourmous swings that probably will kill them. And some of them will blow their entire bankroll in a few months.

If you are a bit unsure about these things you should play +100K hands at one level and win +2BB/100 before you move up.

[climber]

[ QUOTE ]
There are maths to back it up, look in the archive.

My first 75K at 10/20 I never lost more then 180BB so its not like it happens every day. 200K hands at 5/10 I had two really ugly downswings. I play worse when I have a ugly downswing, if u arent maybe u can stop downswing a bit earlier, but most people play worse when they are running bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the reply

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
But some people dont, they stay at the higher level because they were doing so great there before so they know for a fact that this is just a bad run.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the problem here. It's not that people should wait until they run really bad before moving up. It's that they aren't willing to move back down when necessary.