Value bet this river?

[Malachii]

My friend sent me this hand, and I wanted to get some feedback on it... Villain is a reasonably solid player...

Party Poker 100$ No-Limit Hold'em, 1$ BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($188.88)
MP2 ($28.75)
CO ($114.8)
Button ($107.55)
SB ($187.8)
BB ($54.65)
UTG ($109.7)
UTG+1 ($194.43)

Preflop: Hero is with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif, K /images/graemlins/club.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises to 4$, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: ($16.50) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(8 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $10, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: ($36.50) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($36.50) J/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333"> Hero...</font>,

Does he bet here? If so, how much? What's the plan if he gets checkraised?

[TheWorstPlayer]

I would much rather check the flop and bet the turn than vice versa. After betting the flop, I am certainly betting the turn. And yes, bet the river, probably fold to a check/raise but I might call. I probably bet 20. It seems like you have missed so there is no reason to expect you to bet so it would be a very weird place for villain to check/raise a good hand. If he has a hand with showdown value, he should check/call.

[the machine]

id say since you didnt bet the turn, which i dont understand, you dont bet this river. its not impractical to think he could have raised with a9 or even hit 2 pair with kj. some people fall in love with these hands regardless of position. it just seems by this river there are too many possibilities that could beat you. he may even have a hand like aa and thinks you have the king which is why he flat called you on the flop but is checking with the intention of calling all bets. since you didnt bet the turn you have no idea where you stand and i dont see how a river bet could be profitable here, unless for flush representation... qj or j10 of clubs is all you could make him put you on which i dont think he would.

[xcrack999]

[ QUOTE ]
I would much rather check the flop and bet the turn than vice versa.

[/ QUOTE ]
Can you explain this line to me? You are a much better player than I am, and I don't quite understand the logic behind this. Why you would want to check and give everyone a free card? And what are you going to do if someone bets on the turn? Do you raise or call? Thanks.

[TheWorstPlayer]

This is probably the most perfect example of way ahead/way behind (WA/WB) possible. What free cards can possibly hurt you? If you are ahead, the most outs anyone can have is 4 (gutshot straight draw). But much more likely would be 3 (e.g. KQ/KJ) or 2 (e.g. QQ/JJ). So there is little danger in giving a free card. And if you are behind you have something like 2 outs (e.g. AA/9T) or no outs (KK/99). So there is no reason for you to bet/raise in this hand for protection. And this is obvious to your solid playing opponent, too. So he is not going to call a lot with a hand worse than yours because it is so obvious what you are likely to have and he is drawing so slim against that. Therefore, a check on the flop is good because it gives some deception to your hand and it costs you very little in terms of hand protection. Put yourself in villain's shoes with QQ. How do you play against me if I check the flop?

That thought exercise also tells you how to play the turn and river if bet into. You should call if he bets. If he checks, I would bet against most people hoping to get a call from a lower pair (putting you on AQ or an even lower pair depending on what they have) but I would only do that if I could easily fold to a check/raise. If I was playing someone whom I thought was capable of check/raise bluffing the river then I would check behind and take my cheap showdown. Does that make sense? I'm not sure I explained it that great, but if you search for "way ahead" or "way behind" maybe you can find someone else explaining it better somewhere on here.

[xcrack999]

Thanks for the explanation. It was perfect.

[Malachii]

Betting/checking/ is my standard line in this situation.

If you check and he has trips, you saved yourself a bet, and he'll probably bet less on the river cuz he doesn't want to lose you.

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]
I would much rather check the flop and bet the turn than vice versa. After betting the flop, I am certainly betting the turn. And yes, bet the river, probably fold to a check/raise but I might call. I probably bet 20. It seems like you have missed so there is no reason to expect you to bet so it would be a very weird place for villain to check/raise a good hand. If he has a hand with showdown value, he should check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't really like this line against three other people. Against one, I think this would be a great spot to check it, for the reasons you listed. But I think a bet is in order on the flop to chase out QJ or any pocket pair, given the number of players against me. What if someone has pocket fives and the next card off is a five? He would've folded to a flop bet, and now he's in position to win a lot of money from my friend. Granted it's a long shot, but free cards in NL are so dangerous.

PS: Thanks for the post!

[TheWorstPlayer]

If pocket fives will always call a pot sized bet unimproved on the turn if you check the flop and you will always lose your stack when they spike a five on the turn, you should be willing to take that bet. But you won't always lose your stack when they hit because you will have to be worried about a 9. And they won't always push to the max even when they hit because they might fear KK. And a hand like AQ is drawing completely dead against you but might take a stab on the turn.

I think that if it were against 9 opponents, I would bet for the simple reason that one of them is likely to call me with a worse hand and I want value. But against three it is hardly more than heads up and I am checking here almost 100% of the time on the flop. The same money goes in if you check flop and bet turn as if you bet flop and check turn like you did, so your line doesnt save you any money. And they are more likely to call with worse hands if you check the flop than they are if you come out firing right away. And by checking on the flop you might induce a bluff (or even two). I really don't see how betting the flop is good at all except to mix it up (something almost completely worthless at SSNL). Protecting against a two outer (or even two 2-outers) at the risk of putting in more money when behind and losing the value of inducing bluffs/calls from weaker hands on the turn just doesn't seem worth it to me.

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]
And they are more likely to call with worse hands if you check the flop than they are if you come out firing right away. Protecting against a two outer (or even two 2-outers) at the risk of putting in more money when behind and losing the value of inducing bluffs/calls from weaker hands on the turn just doesn't seem worth it to me.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. Thanks for explaining.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You're welcome! /images/graemlins/smile.gif Also, I think this is an interesting hand and a bit of a tricky spot, so I would certainly like to hear from other people on this. What I've posted is just how I have reasoned it out, and it makes sense to me, but doesn't mean it's the only view of course.