Appling your read. Calling an all-in with nothing

[FreakDaddy]

Villian is super fish who will call with any suited cards and likes to gamble. He'd made some gambles while I was at the table and built his stackup to 5x the buy-in, then proceeded to lose it all back. Wish I had a nickle for everytime I've seen that. I placed him firmly on flush draw and called. How many other people make this call? Why/why not?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP2 ($17.7)
MP3 ($41.05)
CO ($53.65)
Button ($20.8)
SB ($16.55)
BB ($36.65)
UTG ($7.47)
UTG+1 ($34.95)
<font color="#C00000">UTG+2 ($23.69)</font>
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($72.05)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls $0.25, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $2, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls $1.75.

Flop: ($6.35) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, CO folds, UTG+2 calls $21.69 (All-In), Hero calls $16.69.

Turn: ($49.73) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($49.73) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $49.73

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG+2 has Js 2s (flush, king high).
Hero has Kd As (two pair, kings and threes).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins $49.73. </font>

[TheCat]

He's a super fish so he could have anything, why did you think he had a flush draw?

[PITTM]

why not just wait until you have ANYTHING? its pretty easy to suck out on someone who has nothing.

rj

[Bukem_]

Who plays a 3 or 55 like this? It's almost always a flush draw or 64.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Who plays a 3 or 55 like this? It's almost always a flush draw or 64.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactely why I called.

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
why not just wait until you have ANYTHING? its pretty easy to suck out on someone who has nothing.

rj

[/ QUOTE ]

I would typically agree with you, but doesn't the play scream flush draw to you, or is it just me? If it does, I'm more 2:1. I think those are pretty good odds here. Even a super fish isn't going all-in with a made hand.

Here are the facts as I see them. 1) He knows I'm a decent/good player. 2) It's HU 3) Who doesn't just call here with a made hand, someone who's playing poker for the first time? 4) He's made this play before
All facts considered, why does he take the risk of scaring me off the hand with the board that way it is?
Conclusion: Flush draw
I'm more than a 2:1 favorite, seems like good odds.

Interesting, I just put it in poker stove and I'm not as big a favorite as I thought. It's 55%/45%.

[swolfe]

"fish" don't check-raise semi-bluff

[the machine]

you dont have a made hand yet. if he has a 3 youre hurtin and id make that push with a 3 to protect against a flush draw if you had one. if he were to flat call with a 3 in his hand then you bet the turn strong he has no choice to fold. but since he is a fish then he probably had a draw which he did but i still dont call an all in with it. you have nothing and if you dont think he had a pp then your only a slight fav preflop and 3 to 1 post flop if he has no pair and no draw. the pot isnt giving you 3 to 1 so i fold

[joewatch]

Although you had odds to call here, (according to poker calculator, you are a 52.7% favorite), sometimes you have to fold the best hand, even when you are a slight favorite. Would you ever call an all-in preflop with 55 if you were sure your opponent had AK? In that case you would be a 54.6% favorite. It's definitely gambling, but I prefer better odds than that.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you ever call an all-in preflop with 55 if you were sure your opponent had AK? In that case you would be a 54.6% favorite. It's definitely gambling, but I prefer better odds than that.

[/ QUOTE ]
If he shows you AK I am calling every day and twice on Sunday. Why would I give up a guaranteed edge?? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[boondockst]

I don't like it...His jack and 2 are live outs...If he really plays this ridiculous i'm sure you can find another hand soon to crush him

or GAMBOOOL which usually loses

[joewatch]

I'm not saying that taking this race is a mistake (I see the pros do it all the time on TV). I'm saying that I personally would not do it with 50 bb or more in a cash game. There will be plenty of opportunities with better overlay.

[TheWorstPlayer]

You see the pros playing cash games on TV? Because tournaments are quite different in this regard (since they don't have time to wait for a better spot often). And if you aren't willing to take a 55% edge for 50bbs you are playing too high for your roll. You are giving up 5bbs in expectation by folding. That is 25-50 hands worth of profit!

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Although you had odds to call here, (according to poker calculator, you are a 52.7% favorite), sometimes you have to fold the best hand, even when you are a slight favorite. Would you ever call an all-in preflop with 55 if you were sure your opponent had AK? In that case you would be a 54.6% favorite. It's definitely gambling, but I prefer better odds than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uhhhhhhh.... uhhhh... I'd call it everytime if I knew that was the case. /images/graemlins/smile.gif And laugh and smile my way to the bank.

[joewatch]

OK, maybe the AK vs 55 wasn't the best example. Anyway, if anybody has Theory of Poker, take a look at page 106 in the chapter "Defense against the semibluff" to see why folding is correct even if you think you have a slight edge. If you still disagree, we'll have to ask D. Sklansky to step in!

[FreakDaddy]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, maybe the AK vs 55 wasn't the best example. Anyway, if anybody has Theory of Poker, take a look at page 106 in the chapter "Defense against the semibluff" to see why folding is correct even if you think you have a slight edge. If you still disagree, we'll have to ask D. Sklansky to step in!

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I'm 55/45 in this situation, and I thought I was 65/35 when I called, so if I had to do it again, knowing the exact cards I'd fold. Another major reason I called was because I knew the player was on tilt and could even possibly have jack crap.

[PoBoy321]

I know it's been stated before but I think I can put it pretty succinctly.

The reason that the call is bad is because even if you're ahead, you're likely only very slightly ahead. If he has Kx /images/graemlins/spade.gif, you're in the best possibly position and you're still only 60/40. Given your read, it's more likely, as was the case, you're against 2 live cards and a flush draw and are only a 55% favorite. Given the possibility that he has a PP or connected with the board in any way at all, you're a big dog and are VERY wrong to make the call.

That said, this is an easy fold because you're likely only slightly ahead or way behind.

[joewatch]

Well, at least somebody agrees with me! LOL