KQs blind defense

[BottlesOf]

villain is unknown

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, Button calls.

Final Pot: 15.25 BB

[Wynton]

How about check-raising the turn?

[BottlesOf]

Didn't seem like a spot I wanted to put 3 bets in...

[King Yao]

You should definitely check-raise the Turn. Maybe it will cost you money if he has a strong hand, but you have a ton of possible outs. This is a good time to use the semi-bluff. Sometimes it will back-fire, but giving yourself a chance to win the pot on the Turn has great value.

[Roy6]

[ QUOTE ]
You should definitely check-raise the Turn. Maybe it will cost you money if he has a strong hand, but you have a ton of possible outs. This is a good time to use the semi-bluff. Sometimes it will back-fire, but giving yourself a chance to win the pot on the Turn has great value.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you C/R turn and he calls, do you bet a river brick if checked to?

[Kasumeat]

How many capping hands are folding this turn? I think you win this hand with a turn checkraise less than one in a hundred times.

I really see absolutely no value in raising the turn.

I think river is okay without a read.

[Joe826]

this is exactly how i would play it.

i wouldn't rule out bluff check/raising the turn but i'd damn sure need a read to do it. i'd need to know that my opponent could fold 99-KK here in order to make it worthwhile. heads up against an unknown, i don't like my chances.

[arkady]

Disagreed. Button capping preflop is something to note here and that A is not a scare card for him. Even if he has something like 88-JJ, he wont fold it anyway. This semi-bluff turn raise has no folding equity and is a chip spewing move.

River cap is fine, i doubt Button is putting JBB on a RR flush. Kinda seems like AA or 88, but the range is massive so the cap is right.

[Danenania]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if he has something like 88-JJ, he wont fold it anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the key. Semi-bluffs like that just don't work in the 10/20 game without very specific reads.

I play this hand the same. I always consider not capping the river then always do it anyway.

[Jeff W]

[ QUOTE ]
How about check-raising the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

No one ever folds.

[BottlesOf]

Bitch had 88 /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[PassiveCaller]

I think this hand is more interesting then the posts but... This seems more like a bad beat post then anything else reading the OP responses.

[KidPokerX]

I agree. Sounds like an attempt to get something in return for your beat. Or someone simply crying out for some sympathy.
The question you need to ask yourself, Boom Boom, will any of this advice change your play. I bet on No.

[BottlesOf]

Are you serious? I posted this because I thought there were interesting decisions on multiple streets. I called him a bitch in a semi-jocular way. That's just my nature. Anyone who knows me would know I'd not post just a stupid bad beat post. I think my 2 year, 5,000 post history here proves that.

[hypermegachi]

how about betting the turn? i really don't like getting 3-bet here so i don't like the check-raise. your overcard outs could not be good, so really you're only drawing to the flush.

if they call the turn, they might fold the river fearing you have an ace.

[BottlesOf]

And will any of what change my play? There isn't really a consensus on the correct way to play it. I think the majority of ppl agree with how I played it. Your post is borderline bunny/pancake material.

[KidPokerX]

i am not attacking you or your exceptional post numbers. im simply criticizing the way you play cards.

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]

I agree. Sounds like an attempt to get something in return for your beat. Or someone simply crying out for some sympathy.
The question you need to ask yourself, Boom Boom, will any of this advice change your play. I bet on No.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

i am not attacking you or your exceptional post numbers. im simply criticizing the way you play cards.

[/ QUOTE ]


Really? Show me where you offer any constructive critique on how I played the hand. I can't seem to find it.

[Evan]

Stop being an idiot.

[King Yao]

The Hero is first to act. If you check-raised the Turn and the Hero calls, you'd have to bet again regardless of the card that comes out. By that time, the pot is so big, even if you don't make anything, its worth a bluff on the River.

As for the statements about "no one ever folds" and "semi-bluffs just don't work in shorthanded games" and "no pre-Flop capper would ever fold" and "even 88 wouldn't fold" - I disagree with those statements. They do work (but not always), and people do fold (but not always). I think they do work enough, and people do fold enough of the time with middling pairs for it to make sense (given the pot size). However, I can't prove it....and I don't think anyone can prove their point to be right either (if you can prove it, it would be interesting to see it). We can come up with a "probability that the button will fold" to see where the breakeven point is for raising or calling...but even if we came up with that number, people will still argue "they fold less than that %" or "they fold more than that %". FWIW, my crude, rough attempt at that breakeven probability is 23%.

This is one of those questions where it would be great to have all the hand history information of an entire site. Say you ran Party Poker and had the technical ability to see what players do fold to semi-bluffs in hands like this - that would be valuable info.

[King Yao]

I think this was a great hand to think about. Thanks for posting it. Even though I like check-raising on the Turn, I can see the reasons for just calling too. Its a good mental exercise for shorthanded games. Thanks.

[arkady]

I will bite, even though my replies were referred to as "someone".

If you were the button and you had 88-JJ on that turn facing a raise against a BB defender, do you fold? Do you think it is a right fold?

Since the answer is probably no, what makes you think anyone else will fold? On top of that there is a risk of getting 3-bet turning the entire situation into a mess.

The pros: You do not get 3-bet
Cons: You **might** force an incorrect fold, but the chance of that happening is not high enough to offset the possiblity of getting 3-bet.

Button capping hand: AA-99(88 maybe), AK-AT(o/s), KQs; How ahead do you think you are of those people? How often do you think that bluff raise needs to work to be profitable?

Board: 3d 3s 7c Ac
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 22.6836 % [ 00.21 00.02 ] { KcQc }
Hand 2: 77.3164 % [ 00.76 00.02 ] { AA-88, AKs-ATs, KQs, AKo-ATo }

Does that paint a more vivid picture?


P.S. For the two people accusing JBB of posting this as a bad beat post need:
1) To acquire reading comprehension
2) Refrain from replying in order to criticize.

[Michael Davis]

"If you were the button and you had 88-JJ on that turn facing a raise against a BB defender, do you fold? Do you think it is a right fold?"

If I bet the turn once the ace dropped it would definitely be with the intention of folding to a checkraise.

-Michael

[King Yao]

[ QUOTE ]
I will bite, even though my replies were referred to as "someone".

[/ QUOTE ]

no offense meant to you or others. from my reads of the posts, it seemed there were several who disagreed with me. I was too lazy to put all the names down...and too lazy to post replies to each post...and instead put my response all in one post.

[ QUOTE ]
If you were the button and you had 88-JJ on that turn facing a raise against a BB defender, do you fold? Do you think it is a right fold?

Since the answer is probably no....

[/ QUOTE ]

The answer is not no.

The big blind wasn't just defending his blind. He three-bet his blind. How likely is it that the big blind three bet me pre-Flop, and then check-raised me on the Turn without an Ace but with a flush draw instead? We're assuming I, as the button, has 88-JJ. The flush draw is unlikely, this is not a scenario where I think semi-bluffs come often, it seems much more like a made hand, especially considering the Flop...which makes the semi-bluff a stronger play than when there appears to be a semi-bluff opportunity. I think this is a scenario where AK, AQ is much more likely than a bluff or semi-bluff. More likely in fact, that I fold 88-JJ. There's 9 big bets in the pot, and I'm going to have to call 2 big bets to win 10 big bets (assuming a bet on river). With 88-JJ, is there a 17% chance I win this hand? I think its lower than that. I'm not saying I'd fold because I want to save two bets. I'm saying I'd fold because I think the chances of 88-JJ is lower than the effective pot odds are offering me given the situation.

In my mind, there are two things to debate now:
1. Is my decision to fold, if I was the button, correct? (I'm guessing you don't think its correct)
2. Even if it is correct, it doesn't tell us how many other people would fold. That we still don't know.

So I think we are still in the same place...not knowing exactly what percentage of the time a player would fold 88-JJ-KK.

You made a great argument and a great question. If I had answered "No, I wouldn't fold if I was on the button", then you would have proven your point to me. And I did seriously think about it, I didn't answer your question just to try to back up my original point.

Thanks arkady...I look forward to your follow-up post.

[Stormwolf]

If a 'semibluff' on the turn works, there was a good chance the king was the best hand anyway

[Wynton]

It appears to me that those discouraging the turn check/raise are making two assumptions. First, they assume the pf cap by the button means he has a big hand. But isn't it possible that he raised initially on a steal, then decided to cap because he suspected a "resteal," and then felt committed to continuing the steal attempt post-flop. In that case, I think he could fold to the check/raise on the turn.

Alternatively, even if the button had a pretty decent hand, perhaps pocket 10s, people seem to be assuming he wouldn't lay the hand down when the Ace falls, despite all the action. Is this assumption really merited?

Actually, what this discussion has taught me is that it's a bad idea to get into a war with an unknown player, who may or may not be raising on a pure steal.

[MAxx]

i thin you played the hand fine.

however, i would not cap the river 3bet.

i am new to 10/20 as well, and aware of the perception of turn checkraises as a semibluf dont work.

i also would have probably played the turn same as you.

i also don't think you can totally discount the value of a turn semibluff to 0. i think you get many 88's to fold here to a turn c/r in this spot. if i am naive about the nature of 10/20 still and 88 never folds here, well word up on that news too... as that says checkraising turns with the goods gets paid in full.