big draw against a bunch of donks

[stinkypete]

they're donks. that's all i need to say in terms of reads.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Button calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Button calls.

River: (11 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

Final Pot: 12 BB

[Roy6]

Are donks capable of folding mid pairs and weak kings?

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
Are donks capable of folding mid pairs and weak kings?

[/ QUOTE ]

i think weak kings are irrelevant. they're holding something much, much weaker way more than 1 in 12 times. they've shown no strength at all.

[Kimpan]

but you have nothing...?

[Joe826]

man, that turn play is just no good.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
man, that turn play is just no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

explain

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
but you have nothing...?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is the point.

[Joe826]

oh, oops. i missed the fact that you had a double gutshot as well as a spade draw. this actually looks good to me, although i probably wouldn't follow through with a river bet if BB hadn't folded.

[waffle]

If each of your opponents folds 1 in 12 times, you are still in trouble, because they will both fold only 1 in 144 times.
You need both opponents to fold. The probability of that happening is Probability of opponent A folding * Probability of opponent B folding. So you can only make this bet if you think each opponent will fold about 1 in 3.46 times or 1:2.46 folds:calls.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
If each of your opponents folds 1 in 12 times, you are still in trouble, because they will both fold only 1 in 144 times.
You need both opponents to fold. The probability of that happening is Probability of opponent A folding * Probability of opponent B folding. So you can only make this bet if you think each opponent will fold about 1 in 3.46 times or 1:2.46 folds:calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is true. it's what makes the river bet interesting. if they each had to fold 1 in 12 times it would be automatic. i figured they'd fold quite a bit more often than this.

[waffle]

I can't quantify this, but my feeling is that I don't think you have the odds against two donks who love to call. I'd c/f

[emonrad87]

[ QUOTE ]
this is true. it's what makes the river bet interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]


No, It's what makes this river bet a wasted bet.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is true. it's what makes the river bet interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]


No, It's what makes this river bet a wasted bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, donk.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this is true. it's what makes the river bet interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]


No, It's what makes this river bet a wasted bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

okay, donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your river play sucks. Frankly I don't even like the turn play. You don't make money at 5/10 by running crappy bluffs on the river. For christ sakes you have 2 opponents. Give up.

Krishan

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

Your river play sucks. Frankly I don't even like the turn play. You don't make money at 5/10 by running crappy bluffs on the river. For christ sakes you have 2 opponents. Give up.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

the river play is obviously entirely read dependent, and i realize now that i should have left it out, as it wasn't the reason i posted the hand. given the opponents there's no doubt at all in my mind that it's the correct play, and i have no clue how anyone can claim to be so sure about it without much of a read.

if i could still edit my post i'd take the river out.. really i'm just curious about the flop and turn play.

[PassiveCaller]

Not in love with any street here really. I think every single decision was debatable including betting the flop.

The turn and river were simply the worst decisions.

[KidPokerX]

No no, turn was worst decision ... bluffing the river was pure genious!! /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
He'll figure it out someday.

[PassiveCaller]

.

[zephed56]

[ QUOTE ]
they're donks.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you're saying they called your flop bet, a turn bet and then a raise, and they will BOTH fold the river for one bet?
Ha, right, then these guys aren't loose passive calling stations.


I don't see any hand they will fold now that the pot has grown big.

However, it looks like they both folded on the river. (posting tells)

NH

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
they're donks.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you're saying they called your flop bet, a turn bet and then a raise, and they will BOTH fold the river for one bet?
Ha, right, then these guys aren't loose passive calling stations.

[/ QUOTE ]

if the definition of "donks" around here is "loose passive calling stations", i have to take back that part of my post. by donks i simply meant "bad players".

[zephed56]

I think the turn play is interesting.

You've got 15 clean outs. (presumably no one has a higher flush draw). Very slim chance any of your pair outs are good, I wouldn't count them. Maybe in a HU game/pot.

46 cards to come. 31 bad:15 good= ~2:1.

Did you check to possibly get a free card? If so, I like it, usually though you will get one bet to you. That's ok, it's usually +EV to get a bet in on this street, 2 people call here a majority of the time. And bonus those rare times you get a free card.

When the bet comes from your left and the other 2 opponents call, you raised to trap them for another bet. +EV play.

First bet on the turn was at 3:1, the raise at 2:1. In total, it was a 2.5:1 getting 2:1 odds.

You also gain some fold equity for the river. I like the turn. I'm a big puss so I'd give up on the river, they'll call with anything, maybe A high.

[zephed56]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
they're donks.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you're saying they called your flop bet, a turn bet and then a raise, and they will BOTH fold the river for one bet?
Ha, right, then these guys aren't loose passive calling stations.

[/ QUOTE ]

if the definition of "donks" around here is "loose passive calling stations", i have to take back that part of my post. by donks i simply meant "bad players".

[/ QUOTE ]
I just assumed a bad player is one who plays too many hands and goes too far with them. Especially by making stupid calls. Maybe I missed the official definition for donk. If so, I apologize.

For them to fold for one bet on the river, they've got to be a somewhat thinking player. A total fish is just thinking "I've got a pair, gotta keep him honest".

The player who folds his pair is thinking "what range of hands does he likely have? I'm pretty sure I'm beat because he's putting in so many bets."

Or you come across the truly awful player who is chasing a gutshot or no pair undercards, and they fold for one bet because they didn't catch anything. So is this the player we've got here?

If they are a bad player who folds too much, I think you should state that for people like me who just use terms without knowing what they mean. I'm a dork like that.

[Joe826]

[ QUOTE ]
Not in love with any street here really. I think every single decision was debatable including betting the flop.

The turn and river were simply the worst decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks for the analysis.

i don't know if you guys have something against the OP or if you just like to be asses but the hand really isn't that bad. atleast give some reasons why you think the hand is bad if you disagree.

the river bluff is debatable but i seriously think it's very close to +EV against bad players. there are ALOT of bad players that will just chase any draw or any overcards trying to make a pair by the river. if they miss, they'll fold. look at all the busted draws out and the size of the pot then rethink the situation.

i don't think it's hugely +EV or -EV either way.

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

Did you check to possibly get a free card? If so, I like it, usually though you will get one bet to you. That's ok, it's usually +EV to get a bet in on this street, 2 people call here a majority of the time. And bonus those rare times you get a free card.


[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't like betting the turn because getting raised and having 2 people fold sucks. i wasn't intending to checkraise either... in fact, having the player to my left bet and be called by both of the other players is the only situation in which i'd even consider checkraising the turn. i figured my turn raise would get at least about 2.5 callers on average so it should be +EV even when considering the possibility of there being another flush draw (by my rough estimates). what i'm not sure of on the turn is how much i hould devalue my flush outs...

also, the turn bettor was somewhat passive, so i figured he wouldn't be reraising... against an aggro player i'd be less inclined to raise.

[ QUOTE ]

You also gain some fold equity for the river. I like the turn. I'm a big puss so I'd give up on the river, they'll call with anything, maybe A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

i definitely wasn't thinking about fold equity, since there's no way i would have bet the river if the turn bettor hadn't folded.

[stinkypete]

and for the record, when i say it's read dependent, i mean it's probably a bet unless both players happen to be of the type that won't fold ace high or any pair.

[zephed56]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Did you check to possibly get a free card? If so, I like it, usually though you will get one bet to you. That's ok, it's usually +EV to get a bet in on this street, 2 people call here a majority of the time. And bonus those rare times you get a free card.


[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't like betting the turn because getting raised and having 2 people fold sucks. i wasn't intending to checkraise either... in fact, having the player to my left bet and be called by both of the other players is the only situation in which i'd even consider checkraising the turn. i figured my turn raise would get at least about 2.5 callers on average so it should be +EV even when considering the possibility of there being another flush draw (by my rough estimates). what i'm not sure of on the turn is how much i hould devalue my flush outs...

also, the turn bettor was somewhat passive, so i figured he wouldn't be reraising... against an aggro player i'd be less inclined to raise.

[ QUOTE ]

You also gain some fold equity for the river. I like the turn. I'm a big puss so I'd give up on the river, they'll call with anything, maybe A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

i definitely wasn't thinking about fold equity, since there's no way i would have bet the river if the turn bettor hadn't folded.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your plan for the turn is sound. When you read a HH, it looks like you planned the whole street in advance. I think everyone else thought you planned that checkraise.

I NEVER discount my flush outs unless it's a 3 flush board.

[arkady]

As much as I have to frown upon trying to bluff out two people, you are trying to win a decent sized pot and betting is the only way.

At the very worst case this play will enhane your image as people might think you are a bit nuts.

Well played, the turn raise is very good as it is a raise for value and you might very well get people to fold middle holdings allowing you to win w/a rivered 6 or 8. You only need 2 of the 3 callers to break even on that call anyway and the possibility of someone dumping a better hand on the turn is now pretty big. Looks like you just woke up with a monster. If people call they might be calling w/picked up draws (diamonds) thus the river bet is almost a must /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Well played.

[Surfbullet]

I like the turn c/r, especially because it wasn't your intent and kind of fell into your lap - most of the time everyone will come along so it is + ev.


[ QUOTE ]
also, the turn bettor was somewhat passive, so i figured he wouldn't be reraising...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is good, in that you can safely pump your draw.

However, what is a somewhat passive player betting on the turn that he will fold for 1 bet on the river? Almost nothing. If a passive player bets into a multiway pot it's b/c he's got a weak king or just hit his 9. Either way, you're not folding him on the river.

Surf

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]

However, what is a somewhat passive player betting on the turn that he will fold for 1 bet on the river? Almost nothing. If a passive player bets into a multiway pot it's b/c he's got a weak king or just hit his 9. Either way, you're not folding him on the river.


[/ QUOTE ]

no, he won't fold the river... but that's because he already folded to my turn raise. his turn play made no sense at all, but that's fine with me.

[Michael Davis]

"no, he won't fold the river... but that's because he already folded to my turn raise. his turn play made no sense at all, but that's fine with me."

He just got checkraised in a double-protected pot, there are lots of hands he could reasonably fold.

-Michael

[stinkypete]

[ QUOTE ]
"no, he won't fold the river... but that's because he already folded to my turn raise. his turn play made no sense at all, but that's fine with me."

He just got checkraised in a double-protected pot, there are lots of hands he could reasonably fold.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

i suppose you are right. what's a double-protected pot?

[Michael Davis]

"double-protected pot?"

I guess the same as a protected pot, but there's a lot of protection since if you are running some junk the bettor knows you've got to push out two others instead of just one. The percentage of times somebody has a hand such as yours is incredibly small. Folding a garbage K would be automatic for me here.

-Michael

[Sadat X]

11-1 on the river bet - I don't think it's that bad of a play.

[ALL1N]

I think you played this hand perfectly. There are a ton of draws out on that turn, and I think you may get a pair of 4s to fold too.

[Noodles]

i like the turn play ,he has 15 outs or something,ok not all are clean but it also looks like he might have 2 pair or something which which also increases his chance of bluffing the pot on the end.

he may as well fire out on the river,no other way to win the pot,by checking he gives up any chance of winning it,checking the river would be useless

[Bluffoon]

[ QUOTE ]
they're donks. that's all i need to say in terms of reads.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, Button calls.

Turn: (4 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG calls, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, UTG calls, Button calls.

River: (11 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

Final Pot: 12 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

I have mixed feelings about this river bet. I think at best it is EV neutral long-term. You are counting on not one but two players that will call all the way with little or nothing and then suddenly get tight and fold. I think one of them will usually show up at the river with some kind of pair to show down.

Is it worth it for your image to bet and show your hand? I think that a check fold helps your image too but that betting may get you some extra calls in later hands. So maybe if you plan to be at this table for a while or especially if there are opponents you play with regularly at the table I would bet.