Early look at NYJ (+7) @ OAK

[Clarkmeister]

This is the Monday Night Football game next week. Anyone think that this one will move in either direction? I think the Jets at 7 offer exceptional value but I don't want to get in if its going to go up. Thoughts appreciated.

[Wildbill]

A key number and a team that will be seen as a potential live dog due to recent form means its not likely to get much better, although in this case half a point would be a compelling move for you. If it does go up it probably will be late action as the public gets in on the game. I am guessing they will be split with maybe a little bias on the favorite.

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/wink.gif gr8 pix again you 5-1??how did you know minn would care enuf to come back?...non conf g laying more than 7 not smart i know...gl /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[Clarkmeister]

*sigh*

Went to 6 already. I hate it when I see a bad line and don't jump on it because I get greedy.

If you loved it at 7, you should still like it at 6, you weren't expecting the jets to lose by 6 were you?

[Clarkmeister]

The words are "value" and "edge". Look them up.

listen, I've seen enough of your picks to know you have a keen eye for value and edge when it comes to pro games. Maybe if you would of placed your bet instead of posting your nonsense on this site you could have had the jets +7.

Did you expect the jets to lose by 6 - that was your lock?

I think I'll wait for Craig R.'s picks to come out this week, if your backing off your pick when it drops one point. You can always play the teazer's if your that afraid of the line.

/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif raiders -6 the nuts...why...jets last played bills...every team this year has lost sr8 up and ats...the week after playing mighty buffalo...

scalf sez lock city..oakland -6...a bet against the team who played the bills the week before...gl /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

[Clarkmeister]

I still lean towards the Jets at 6 scalfie, but its a no play for me there, not enough value.

[Wildbill]

I do have to agree with the earlier post Clark. I can't ever remember saying a game looked very good with lots of value at 7 and then passing it because the number went to 6. Doing something like that just plain looks bad Clark, value and edge are one thing but every bet you make should have a lot more than 1 point of edge. Sometimes a point does make a difference in deciding a bet, but I would suggest entering it with a different approach. If you see a number at 6 and say, well takes 7 to make me feel there is enough value to back it is one thing. Playing it backwards doesn't make sense and you are just talking yourself out of what you thought was a good play. In the end playing like this and you are just opening yourself up to all kinds of problems in terms of pulling the trigger and making strong plays, leading to hesitation and annyoing (and possibly detrimental) losing streaks.

In this particular case maybe you are right to back off, I don't know, its possible that you have created a sense of confusion for yourself that might make it worthwhile just to forget this one matchup, but going forward I think you need to approach the games with a more pro-active stance and tying "strong" and "value" to the play at the same time, but only when the number is there and to your liking to the point where you pull the trigger and back it.

I'm saving this post, wild Bill finally agreed with something I said, maybe my logic is reaching the masses. good luck this weekend with all your picks.

[Clarkmeister]

Bill,

Moving from 7 to 6 costs me 6% of games that would have been pushes becoming losers and 4% of games that would have been winners become pushes. These aren't exactly insignificant numbers. In fact, they are huge chunks of EV dissolving away. I pegged a bad line with tremendous value, and the value disappeared. Oh well, on to the next game.

For someone who frequently posts about playing or not playing a side based on whether or not he gets an extra hook on a 3, I am surprised that you think laying off a game because of a move off of 7 down a full point is poor strategy.

If the move was from 5 to 4 I would agree with you, but this move is off a key number by a full point. As much as I respect your opinion, I simply must disagree with you on this one.

[Wildbill]

Its 3% because half your plays won't matter (Jets win by 7). I just don't buy it Clark. You really are going to tell me you make plays that are that borderline? My plays that I list here I am making an educated guess that I have about 2.5 points of value. Sure the exact numbers you use do matter, but its still more than a 1 point differential. I can understand you saying that a play goes from being excellent to only being good, but going from excellent to unplayable seems implausible. Key numbers do matter, but only to some degree. I really only pay a lot of attention to 3 and try to work around that, but even at that I find plays that are off by a couple of points and I will just ignore the 3 factor. This is the NFL where games are generally around 40 points so if I have what I feel is a 2-3 point edge then I am not going to mess around too much with key numbers. If you find me getting worried about key numbers then it means I am probably trying to hard to create a play. Just was a constructive piece for you Clark. Agree or not on this game, I think its crucial to be aggressive on plays and be ready to jump on them, even if it means going against what is thought to be "smart" money or what you think could be a crucial number. Don't take it too far, but still give yourself leeway to start with and then go strong to the window, so to speak. Its just how I play all sports I guess. Just my two cents...

[Clarkmeister]

"You weren't expecting the Jets to lose by 6 were you?"

uhhhhhhhh.....yes???