Bluff

[Elektrik]

Party $215

Thoughts?

RoJoSox ( $1075 )
Seat 4: nomormrncguy ( $2010 )
Seat 5: WoWTheChets ( $900 )
Seat 6: XDsGrrrr ( $1120 )
Seat 7: Game_50 ( $2475 )
Seat 9: GramiHiaus ( $2420 )
Trny:12019466 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to GramiHiaus [ 7c Jc ]
WoWTheChets folds.
XDsGrrrr folds.
Game_50 has been reconnected and has 20 seconds to act.
Game_50 folds.
GramiHiaus raises [250].
RoJoSox folds.
nomormrncguy calls [150].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Ac, 3c, 9s ]
nomormrncguy checks.
GramiHiaus bets [375].
nomormrncguy calls [375].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
nomormrncguy checks.
GramiHiaus checks.
** Dealing River ** [ Ah ]
nomormrncguy bets [500].
GramiHiaus raises [1700]

[pergesu]

I think you're probably in a world of hurt. He calls a decent preflop bet out of position, then calls a strong bet on the flop as well. I don't think your turn check induced him to bet on the river - he either had a strong hand and was going for a check-raise, or more likely had an A without much of a kicker. When you checked the turn and made trips, he had to figure he was good.

I don't play this high, and don't know the opponents, so I've got no clue what this guy would be capable of. That's all just what it looks like to me.

[Elektrik]

FWIW, most players at the $215's do have some sort of thought process going on (not that it's necessarily good).

I thought at the time my opponent was reasonable and would be willing to lay down a 9 or mid PP here. He proved me wrong later, but that's another story.

[Michael C.]

I'll give this one a shot, and I'd love to hear where my analysis is wrong, since it probably is. :-)

If he has any ace at all, of course he has to call your raise. It's unlikely you have a good ace or had a set, because if you did, why would you have checked the turn with a flush draw out there? You wouldn't have wanted to give him a free draw, and you wouldn't have wanted him to fold at the end. So if I were him I'd put you on a pocket pair or draw yourself. If he had a pocket pair, though, would it make sense for him to bet at the end? Only if it's a very high one. Because otherwise the only way you call him is if you beat him. In other cases I think it would make more sense for him to check and call. So what could he have that would make his bet fit the hand? A broken draw himself, or a real good hand he was waiting to check raise the turn on. Maybe he does have a high pocket pair or maybe he is a bad player, so I guess those are possibilities too. So I wouldn't have reraised him in that spot like you did.

OK, so what happened, and where is my analysis off. ;-)

[stripsqueez]

my first thought is that i dont like to steal on the button when 5+ handed

i know the BB - he plays lots of 10/20, 15/30 6 max limit - he is not good but not bad at that game - my second thought is that he knows what a dodgy looking line looks like and he plainly has you beat

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Elektrik]

Villain thought for a long time, and folded.

I'm not saying my line was correct or even sane for that matter, hence the reason behind this post.

It is interesting to note, however, that this IS how I would play it if I had an A. If the BB has a club draw and it comes through, good for him; however, I let him bluff the river with a lot of things here and take him off it here most of the time.

Another factor is the A out there. Villain is getting terrible reverse implied odds call with Ax, which could potentially lessen the chance of that hand, but again I could be wrong.

To me, villain's bet of 500 into the 1300 looked weak - he either had a weak hand that wanted a cheap showdown or was bluffing back after I checked the turn.