Overpair, whats my turn action?

[JrJordan]

One more from tonight. SB is everyone's favorite player. Has seen every flop except for one that was capped when it came to him VPIP 95, PFR 14. Here's the beauty. Calling station post flop to a fault. Any raise and I'd probably fold top pair in a heads up battle against him. BB is a lot more solid. Pretty tight and a little passive preflop, but more aggressive postflop when senses weakness. Neither has been very tricky so far.

Hand: Preflop standard. On the flop these guys are getting 9:1 already if I raise, so I decide to smooth call and raise a non-scary turn. Turn card comes... whats your play?

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero...

[ALL1N]

Raise and fold to a 3-bet.

[JrJordan]

Okay, good so far...

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB calls.

River: (10.50 BB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, Hero...

Do we chop here 1 in 4 times to make a call +EV?

[ArturiusX]

This may sound insane, but do you think SB might fold to a raise? Would that make the play ev+?

[kurosh]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop these guys are getting 9:1 already if I raise

[/ QUOTE ]
Wtf? Raise the flop.

[Danenania]

Flop should be raised for value, not protection.

I like the raise and fold to a 3-bet plan on the turn. The river is a fold I think based on your read of SB.

[Cactus Cactus]

whoever said that you should raise the flop should read the section in the 2+2 book, Small Stakes holdem about why to wait to raise with TT on the turn and to raise AA on the flop. Correct play is to raise on the turn and fold to a 3 bet which was already said

[kurosh]

Maybe you should try understanding that section.

[ArturiusX]

[ QUOTE ]
whoever said that you should raise the flop should read the section in the 2+2 book, Small Stakes holdem about why to wait to raise with TT on the turn and to raise AA on the flop. Correct play is to raise on the turn and fold to a 3 bet which was already said

[/ QUOTE ]

How many safe cards would you estimate we have?

[Cactus Cactus]

I feel that there is some question to why to wait to raise the TT. It is the same principle as if you have top pair and someone bets into you and you think there is a good chance that he is on the flush draw, you wait to see what the turn is before you make your raise, if it does not come you raise, if it does, you call down. If you raise and the draw comes and he checks it to you. You are in a difficult situation. So with the TT example since there are overcards, if nothing is scary you can raise on the turn. But if the turn brings a cards to which you're opponent might have hit, then you call down

[kurosh]

You are completely misapplying and mixing together several different concepts.

[Cactus Cactus]

example to me how that does not relate?

[kurosh]

I'm about to go to bed and your english is hard to understand but -

In the TT example, there are, I believe, 5 opponents. The point of the example is your equity is much lower, that's why you don't raise. Their collective outs are a favorite against you. In this hand, there are only two opponents. Thus, your equity is much higher and you should raise for value.

The way you're advocating playing is weak-tight and passive. You might win, but not nearly as much as you could.

[Cactus Cactus]

Ya know, I'll have to agree with you there. Good point, sorry about my bad english, i just returned from the bars and don't feel like re reading the thing

[billyjex]

I could never see folding this river. We are easily good 1 in 4 times.

[JrJordan]

Good discussion on protection vs. value on the flop. I'm rethinking my line a bit now with this debate going on. Here's my thoughts. I agree that a flop raise would be better here, but not because of equity reasons. Certainly the raise on the flop is +EV but raising a safe turn could bring in an even higher equity due to the big bet and the fact that there's only one card to come for the draw instead of two. My bigger reason for the flop raise is because I misunderestimated the number of scare cards I would have to deal with on the turn. To some extent, any 3, 4, 8, 9, Q, K, or A could act as a scare card and make it much harder for me to comfortably raise the turn. If I had a higher overpair such as KK or AA, I'd be more inclined to wait until a safe turn to raise, simply because there are a lot more turn cards that I'd like.

Regarding the river call, the SB was a very passive player postflop, making it very tempting to find a fold. But I still think a call is ok.

Results: SB has K8, BB has Q4. On the flop I was actually a slight dog with so many draw cards available, so the turn raise for equity actually would've been better here. Obviously not trying to be results oriented though, so I would like to continue the discussion on the equity we could get by raising this flop, vs. the increased equity we could get by raising a safe turn (lets assume I have a higher overpair to reduce the number of scare cards). Is this a case where I could make more by waiting until the turn?