How good is PokerProphecy in helping you with table selection?

[AA suited]

for $20, i'll usually buy it just to try it.

but i really dont want to give this guy any $ due to the way he's spamming.

but if it helps me make $, then sure /images/graemlins/smile.gif

how helpful is the program in table selection for multi-tablers?

THX

[TStokes]

I think it depends on the level you are going to play at. I know a lot of people have it, but I also know that it isnt completely accurate. I think it is more accurate for people who have been playing a long time because it doesnt record every tournament, so if you are playing higher limits with people who have been playing longer I am sure it will help you out more then if you are playing at lower limits with new players.

[Messy_Jesse]

OK- dont hate for this but....

PokerProphecy has already paid for itself, IMO. It lets me know who the good players are- I respect their raises, I steal their blinds, I stay away from them when I can. It lets me know who the fish are. I dont bluff them, I raise on them, and I let them bluff at me. Atleast three times I've called all-ins first hand against them with AQ and JJ- things I would never do normally. Each time, they flipped over something like 77, AJ, or even KT (KT soooted, though /images/graemlins/wink.gif ) Lately, the data collection has been so shitty- they haven't picked up any of my games lately. However, they do get a sufficiently large sample size that does have some merits. IMO, it has paid for itself, and I actually enjoy looking people up and seeing how they do. Thats all.

Jess

[AA suited]

$50+5

I'm asking about how useful it is for table section BEFORE you join the table.

and what do you mean you use it to call an all-in at the early rounds? how does it help you in that situation?

[TStokes]

A lot of people fold their big hands early to all ins but if PP says that the player who went all in is a bad player many might go ahead and make the call.

[Atto]

I have found that I like Poker Edge a lot with table selection. It is constantly updating, and has some great features that I don't believe Poker Prophesy has.

[iluzion]

can someone give me links to these pieces of software? what exactly do they do?

[microbet]

I don't have a big sample, but PokerProphecy is off by over 10% on me now.

[TStokes]

PP (http://www.pokerprophecy.com)

[beeyjay]

ill take the contrarian opinion to the rest of the board and say i do use the program and am not completely disapointed with it. Yes, they spam about it which I have no respect for and yes, they have had a couple empty promises as far as when stuff will get done, but by and large they seem to be chugging along and will eventually get to the point that they claim.

However like you said it really comes down to an issue of will it help you make money and i think the answer to this is yes. You know as well as I that often in 55s a person goes all in early and turns over something ridiculous when called. Unsurprisingly these are the players with the 10% itm on prophecy. I have called these with less than aa or kk on multiple occasions that pre-prophecy i would have laid them down and been pleasantly surprised. While most of the players you see regularly are probably winners you can identify those that are just killing the game and avoid tables with them. Not to mention I kind of have fun with it just checking people itm. If i see an odd play out of someone ill check to see how they do. in the rare case theyre a winning player i can maybe pick up a new idea or two.

[Degen]

[ QUOTE ]

and what do you mean you use it to call an all-in at the early rounds? how does it help you in that situation?

[/ QUOTE ]

You make it 60 to go in the first round with JJ and somebody behind you makes it 300 to go, or more. You look him up, says he's logged over 400 tourneys w/ ITM over 39%...you can be pretty sure you're beat or a coin-flip if you're lucky. Muck it. The flip side, you run him and it says he has 20 tourneys logged and an ITM of 21%...auto-call.

My $30 has paid for itself over and over and over with good reads in this type of situation.


Andre

[Blarg]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't have a big sample, but PokerProphecy is off by over 10% on me now.

[/ QUOTE ]

From my first games to the over 500 I've played now, they've consistently missed 1/3 to half or more of my games. Right now they're about about half my games. They've never posted me as less than a far greater winner than I really am.

[Degen]

Doesn't matter if they miss half, over a big enuff sample it'll still be an accurate depiction of your ITM. Its a statistical/research axiom called 'Random Sampling'.


Andre

[Blarg]

Though it sounds like it may surprise you, this concept is clearly not beyond anyone's ken, so the prowess of your observation here is a little less than stunning.

It doesn't matter if they have half your games or all of them, if the depiction of your ITM is not accurate. Which, as my post noted, it was not. Not even close, after more than 500 games.

[AJ_Rider]

I play the $55s and $109s. I got Prophecy recently. It has already more than paid for itself.

To answer your question, only once have I left a table before it started because I saw 2 other pros sit down with me. Usually, it is simply useful for what many others have said. I know how to play against various players. I know when to fold bottom 2-pair to that pro overbetting, I know when to reraise AJo to the LAG raise. Yeah, it doesn't catch every game, but generally if I see a player with over 100 games recorded I take that as a reasonable head-start into a line on his play.

Worthwhile purchase, IMO.

I have no comparison to Poker Edge, which I've never used.

[AA suited]

dymb question, but pokerprophecy works on all party skins right?

(their website says they are working on a release for Empire???)

[Blarg]

All skins have the same customers and tables, except for the MTT's.

[AJ_Rider]

It works for all skins, but the table overlay only works on Party. (I don't like the table overlay anyway, as it doesn't show you how many games they've played [i.e. how accurate the stats are] and the graphics for it are buggy.)

[Skipbidder]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't matter if they miss half, over a big enuff sample it'll still be an accurate depiction of your ITM. Its a statistical/research axiom called 'Random Sampling'.

[/ QUOTE ]

The amount by which they are off for multiple posters suggests that there may be a systematic error rather than simply random sampling.