Giant pot turn decision, 10/20 6 max

[geormiet]

2 limpers, I limp KT spades on button, sb calls, bb checks. BB is very erratic, very loose.

Flop comes QJ9, 2 hearts. BB bets, utg raises, utg+1 3 bets, I cap, BB and everyone else call.

TUrn is the 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB bets again, utg and utg+1 call. I raise...

?

[spamuell]

I think this is good post-flop because you're getting 3:1 immediate odds on your turn bet and only UTG is likely to have a flush, so your straight will be good enough of the time.

But why didn't you raise pre-flop?

[geormiet]

why is only utg likely to have a flush?

[Joe826]

flop/turn is completely standard. i also think you should raise preflop.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
why is only utg likely to have a flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it seems unlikely the other players would try to call/reraise their flushes, although possible.

[jfresh]

i dunno, 3 other people going nuts on the flop, and the flush comes... i figure there's gotta be someone with it, especially with all that strength shown on the flop and BB bets out again nevertheless.

maybe weak tight thinking. but i'd like to see the river and the action there before putting any extra bets in the pot.

[geormiet]

I was going to fold to any 3 bet on the turn.

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
I was going to fold to any 3 bet on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

This would be a terrible fold.

[spamuell]

maybe weak tight thinking. but i'd like to see the river and the action there before putting any extra bets in the pot.

If they're calling the turn, it's fairly likely they have a heart (probably a reasonably high one). Why would you want to wait till the river where they won't call with their missed draw?

[geormiet]

It would be a terrible fold why?

If you call a 3 bet, you're also calling a riverbet. Given that ridiculous flop action, plus the turn 3 bet, you think someone doesn't havea a flush more than 1/8 times? (didn't count up the pot exactly but close to that)

I think someone would have a flush more like 19 out of 20 times.

[jfresh]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe weak tight thinking. but i'd like to see the river and the action there before putting any extra bets in the pot.

If they're calling the turn, it's fairly likely they have a heart (probably a reasonably high one). Why would you want to wait till the river where they won't call with their missed draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

its fairly likely they have a high heart, but i think its also very likely someone's already got a flush. raising opens you up to getting 3bet... and i want to see showdown here, unless the river gets real ugly.

[BottlesOf]

[ QUOTE ]

flop/turn is completely standard. i also think you should raise preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

[spamuell]

its fairly likely they have a high heart, but i think its also very likely someone's already got a flush.

Why would you think this? Because there was lots of action on the flop? It was a QJ9 flop! Of course there was a lot of action. Only one bet has gone in on the turn. To think that someone has a flush because of this is ridiculous.

[geormiet]

[ QUOTE ]
its fairly likely they have a high heart, but i think its also very likely someone's already got a flush.

Why would you think this? Because there was lots of action on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the flop action is quite indicative that there is a flush out there....not ridiculous at all.

[jfresh]

[ QUOTE ]
its fairly likely they have a high heart, but i think its also very likely someone's already got a flush.

Why would you think this? Because there was lots of action on the flop? It was a QJ9 flop! Of course there was a lot of action. Only one bet has gone in on the turn. To think that someone has a flush because of this is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

not only because of the bet/raise/3bet/cap flop, but on the turn, the BB once again bets out, against 3 players who CAPPED his original bet. If this was checked to OP, i would say bet. but how could you not think there is not a very high chance there is a flush out there with the turn action?

now this depends highly on the BB, but i'd say if he wasn't a maniac its highly likely he has a flush.

[Surfbullet]

BB is very erratic, and very loose (from OP). his turn lead could be any 2 pair, any made straight, he could have just picked up 2 pair with Q3, who knows, maybe a set of 3s or 9s.

there are lots of hands he would lead again here, and UTG and UTG+1 seem very unlikely to have a flush because they would have raised the turn in this huge pot. This is a clear raise for value.

Surf

[sthief09]

why aren't you raising preflop? why are you even considering folding to a 3-bet?

[geormiet]

pf - sometimes I raise KTs in this situation, sometimes I don't. If my table image is crappy and I have less bluffing equity, I'd more often not raise. Do you think it makes a difference? Cause I don't...

Regarding the turn 3 bet - you're right, I misspoke. I would not fold to an utg 3 bet, since he is a semi maniac. I would fold to anyone else's 3 bet.

[Wynton]

I, for one, do not think this is an automatic raise pf.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Raise preflop.

If three-bet on the turn, think seriously about calling this one down unless the others tell you more clearly that there are flushes out there.

[TBag]

I'm only folding the turn if I raise, it's reraised, and one of the limpers reraises and types "I have the flush." in the chatbox.