Study Reveals Baseball's Great Clutch Hitters

[Dead]

The question has been answered:

link (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=96&ncid=96&e=3&u=/space/20050505/sc_space/studyrevealsbaseballsgreatclutchhitters)



LiveScience Staff

LiveScience.com Thu May 5, 6:27 PM ET

A baseball fan and statistics buff has proven that clutch hitters really do exist, putting statistics behind the obvious.

The new study, by math and economics student Elan Fuld of the University of Pennsylvania, was announced by the university Thursday.

Fuld defined a clutch hitter as one who hits better at more important moments. He studied stats on 1,075 Major League players in the 1974-1992 seasons.

Factors determining a clutch hit: how many bases were occupied, the score at the time, the inning, and how many outs. He also counted sacrifice flies, in which a runner scores but no hit is recorded.

"What I found was that, when I included sacrifice flys in the analysis, there was overwhelming evidence that there were clutch hitters," Fuld said.

So who were the greatest under pressure? Frank Duffy, Eddie Murray and Luis Gomez stood out.

Bill Buckner, known as a choke artist for his Game 6
World Series error in 1986 that many remember as costing Boston the championship, was statistically proven to be a clutch hitter, too.

Fans and players have always known there's a lot of psychology to hitting.

"Once situational importance rose to around at least a certain level," Fuld explained, "the player would start to think this is very important and start doing something that makes him hit better, if he's clutch, or panics and does something that makes him hit worse, if he's a choke hitter."

[J.R.]

Eddie haters abound but his play never gets enough respect.

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />

Fuld defined a clutch hitter as one who hits better at more important moments.

[/ QUOTE ]

but why exactly does he do so? is it a statistical coincidence? just variance? yes.

this article proves nothing.

[Voltron87]

This has always been an oxymoron. The point of clutch hitters and players is that you can't measure their contributions to the team in numbers.

[istewart]

[ QUOTE ]
student Elan Fuld of the University of Pennsylvania

[/ QUOTE ]

As much as I would like to agree, I can't see anything revealing about this article or study. Sample size pwns him.

And I haven't heard anything about this study here /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Paluka]

The only way to prove clutch hitting is to see if it predictive- going over the past and seeing if players behaved as if they were clutch hitters is stupid.

[bisonbison]

The only way to prove clutch hitting is to see if it predictive- going over the past and seeing if players behaved as if they were clutch hitters is stupid.

ding.

[pryor15]

haven't read the article yet, but there's a new one by everyone's favorite geek, bill james, on this very issue, available here (http://www.sabr.org/cmsfiles/underestimating.PDF)

it's a link to a pdf, just so you know.

[Dead]

Bill James makes my head hurt.

I resent the fact that he has turned baseball into such a mathematical game.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
Bill James makes my head hurt.

I resent the fact that he has turned baseball into such a mathematical game.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have the greatest GM of all time, Branch Rickey, to blame for that.

[pryor15]

livescience.com provides zero data that i can find on the webpage, so i'm not so sure i'm convinced. does he have some sort of minimum filter for plate appearances?

but, we do have a nice photo of bill buckner, so that's something.

what does this study tell us? that eddie murray hit well in the clutch? i'm not sure this answers any questions.

a better study: find a reliable way to predict who will hit better in the clutch. that'd be something.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
Bill James makes my head hurt.

I resent the fact that he has turned baseball into such a mathematical game.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't turn it into a such a matematical game. The numbers are there to be studied. This is akin to cursing Newton for using mathematics and inventing the calculus to study the universe.

[DeezNuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Bill James makes my head hurt.

I resent the fact that he has turned baseball into such a mathematical game.

[/ QUOTE ]

He didn't "turn" it into anything. It was already there.

DN

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
Fuld defined a clutch hitter as one who hits better at more important moments.

[/ QUOTE ] so, what he did was use data and applly it to his definition of a clutch hitter.

How did this crap even get printed?

[jason_t]

It's ironic that you post a link to a mathematical study to support a belief that you have but later in the thread say you don't like the mathematical aspect of the game.

[Dead]

I just posted it because I knew it was going to get posted anyway, and there have been a ton of threads about "clutch" hitters.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I just posted it because I knew it was going to get posted anyway, and there have been a ton of threads about "clutch" hitters.

[/ QUOTE ]

With your psychic powers you should be crushing 0.01/0.02 game.

[Dead]

When I play poker, I play Stars .25/.50, and I do quite well at it. I've never had to reload, at least.

[Voltron87]

what are you up for the week, 50$?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
When I play poker, I play Stars .25/.50, and I do quite well at it. I've never had to reload, at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you played as often as you post I doubt that this would be the case.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
what are you up for the week, 50$?

[/ QUOTE ]

About $100 in 12 hours of play.

I figure that my long term BB/100 at it is probably about 5.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When I play poker, I play Stars .25/.50, and I do quite well at it. I've never had to reload, at least.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you played as often as you post I doubt that this would be the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

I post a lot while I play.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what are you up for the week, 50$?

[/ QUOTE ]

About $100 in 12 hours of play.

I figure that my long term BB/100 at it is probably about 5.

[/ QUOTE ]

http://i3.photobucket.com/albums/y73/jason_t712/bs.jpg

[Dead]

I have no reason to lie. And I never said that I am a great poker player. I am playing only .25/.50, after all. Then again, I am in college, and have no plans of making poker playing a career. It is simply a hobby.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what are you up for the week, 50$?

[/ QUOTE ]

About $100 in 12 hours of play.

I figure that my long term BB/100 at it is probably about 5.

[/ QUOTE ]is this over 1000 hands? if so, you pwn.

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what are you up for the week, 50$?

[/ QUOTE ]

About $100 in 12 hours of play.

I figure that my long term BB/100 at it is probably about 5.

[/ QUOTE ]is this over 1000 hands? if so, you pwn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's not over 1000 hands.

I play 300 hands an hour, on average, 5-tabling, so that's about 3600 hands.

Why is that so unbelievable? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[jstnrgrs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Fuld defined a clutch hitter as one who hits better at more important moments.

[/ QUOTE ]

but why exactly does he do so? is it a statistical coincidence? just variance? yes.

this article proves nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course this article proves nothing. Like all atricals about studies, it only includes the results of the study. To "prove" anything, all the math involved would be included.

I suspect that this statistiacl analysis demonstrates that there is a very low probability that this is just a statistical coincidence, or variance, but without the details of the study, I can't prove it (and I probably wouldn't understand it anyway.)

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what are you up for the week, 50$?

[/ QUOTE ]

About $100 in 12 hours of play.

I figure that my long term BB/100 at it is probably about 5.

[/ QUOTE ]is this over 1000 hands? if so, you pwn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's not over 1000 hands.

I play 300 hands an hour, on average, 5-tabling, so that's about 3600 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]so your long term is 3700 hands?

[Dead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what are you up for the week, 50$?

[/ QUOTE ]

About $100 in 12 hours of play.

I figure that my long term BB/100 at it is probably about 5.

[/ QUOTE ]is this over 1000 hands? if so, you pwn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course it's not over 1000 hands.

I play 300 hands an hour, on average, 5-tabling, so that's about 3600 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]so your long term is 3700 hands?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, my long term is 24k hands. I know that I have sample size issues.

[tbach24]

This thread is:

http://img142.echo.cx/img142/8093/foamrs1yt.jpg

Keep the poker [censored] out of OOT

[Dead]

Jason brought it up.

[ThaSaltCracka]

this thread is what?

[Dead]

S-O-A-P-Y.

[jstnrgrs]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fuld defined a clutch hitter as one who hits better at more important moments.

[/ QUOTE ] so, what he did was use data and applly it to his definition of a clutch hitter.

How did this crap even get printed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there another,generally accepted, defination that you would prefer?

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
this thread is what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Gay. A lot of people mentioned on how the hot tub was getting old, so I decided this would be a good substitute. Me = wrong?

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fuld defined a clutch hitter as one who hits better at more important moments.

[/ QUOTE ] so, what he did was use data and applly it to his definition of a clutch hitter.

How did this crap even get printed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there another,generally accepted, defination that you would prefer?

[/ QUOTE ]how about we use a definition which that doesn't rely on completely objective situations to define it?

[Voltron87]

yes. it just isn't in the same league as the hot tub.

[jstnrgrs]

It would be kinda hard to do a statistical analysis with a subjective definition. I wonder how many people back in the 1800's said "Some moron has decided taht cretain situations count as at bats, and other cituations ount as hits, and he has created a statistic called batting avereage based on his own definitons. How does this crap even get printed?"

[tbach24]

[ QUOTE ]
yes. it just isn't in the same league as the hot tub.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fine, I'll continue my quest for a new one. The point remains in tact though, posting about poker in OOT = the gay.

[ThaSaltCracka]

your example is horrible. One can easily define what an at bat is, and what a hit is. Defining what a big moment is, is simply ridiculous. two people could have completely different definitions for a big moment.

[jstnrgrs]

and onw might just as well define an at-bat as any plate appearance; one might say that a FC should count as a hit; one could say that a walk should count as a hit. The people who invented that batting average statistic just picked what they thought was dest and went with it. The same can be done for clutch situations.

[Jim Kuhn]

'Clutch hitting is a matter of interpretation'. You can not measure 'clutch hitting' because it it objective. Two people could develop formulas and derive completely different results. It does make for great discussion though!

Thank you,

Jim Kuhn
Catfish4u
/images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[CallMeIshmael]

Clutch exists.

I think it is absurd to assume that every MLB player handles stressful situtions equally.

Much like the rest of us, when presented with a tough situation (like bottom of the 9th, with 2 outs) some players will handle the stress better than others.

But:

A) This probably means very little... as they all probably handle stressful baseball situations quite well.

B) It is essentially impossible to measure, as true hitting rates are impossible to determine because of sample size limitations

C) Anyone who cant see why this article proves nothing has some major problems

[ThaSaltCracka]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is absurd to assume that every MLB player handles stressful situtions equally.

[/ QUOTE ] sure, some people stay calm during stressful situations and some crack. But that does not mean one will perform better at something as highly skilled as hitting in the majors just because stress doesn't get to him. In all goes back to the law of averages and statistics. Good players are more likely to get hits, ergo they are more likely to get hits in "clutch" situations. This doesn't make him clutch, rather it is simply a reinforcement that they are a good players because their likelihood of getting a hit is 50 to 60 points(BA-wise)higher than the average player in the league. All of these arguments otherwise are so incredibly stupid, so please stop it.

[daryn]

pocket jacks is a clutch hand in no limit texas holdem tournament poker.

it seems like every time my tournament life is on the line, and i have jacks, i win. not all the time, just more often than not.. but especially when my tournament life is on the line.

pocket jacks is a clutch hand.