50 NL Downswing?

[ace_in_the_hole]

How big of a downswing, 4 tabling 50NL at party, could one see before being alarmed. All of my stats in PT look great and this is around 50k hands of data. By the way MY current swing is around 7 buyins over 12,000 hands. However I have had 400 in bonuses to keep me profitable over this time.

Basically the bonuses helped me cope with this downswing but wanted to make sure I wasn't just happy playing losing poker. Thanks.

[poboy]

I could be way off here but I'd be a little worried. If I have a 7 buy-in downswing over a couple hundred or even thousand hands, I don't worry because it could just be variance. With 10k+ though I might start suspecting some leaks in my game, this seems like a large enough sample to smooth out any bad beats. I am just basing this on my own personal experience of not having a downswing last that long, and as I said I may be completely off base. JMO

[ace_in_the_hole]

Thanks for the response. I have started to examine my game very closely. I seem to play solid but one big suckout will break me. Should I be putting my money into the middle as a 4-1 favorite on the flop? or am i wrong in my thinking?

I really hope this is a bad run nightmare but if not we'll find out soon enough cause im going to be putting in 35k-40k hands this month. At this rate i'll be down about 1300 so i'll give up at that point. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[TrailofTears]

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Should I be putting my money into the middle as a 4-1 favorite on the flop?

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This gets my vote as the worst question asked on here so far this year.

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At this rate i'll be down about 1300 so i'll give up at that point.

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Don't give up, just get some help and find your leaks. They are out there, and they aren't impossible to find if you make the effort (I'm not implying that you aren't, btw.)

-T

[ace_in_the_hole]

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Should I be putting my money into the middle as a 4-1 favorite on the flop?



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There was a hint of sracasm in that question. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
Thanks for the support though and I am working on fixing my leaks, also do you know of any quick tips on common leaks found in the 50NL game?

[excession]

do you know of any quick tips on common leaks found in the 50NL game

tilt
bluffing bad players
chasing draws
being too weak-tight
over-focusing on one bad player
calling all-ins from bad players who hit junk flops
playing junk hands and marginals from bad positions
fancy play syndrome (esp slowplaying on danger boards)
not using GT+/PV
not taking time to select tables
overplaying trap hands
moving up too soon and being uncomfortable

and I managed a 28 buy-in downswing once on the old Party $25's - and yes it was tilt/lousy play..

[ace_in_the_hole]

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and I managed a 28 buy-in downswing once on the old Party $25's - and yes it was tilt/lousy play..


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Yeah i know 3 of my buyins were getting all in preflop with KK against AA when I knew the guy probably had AA.

Thanks for the list.

I also thought of another one: Spending too much time posting on 2+2 while playing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jkkkk]

the only one off that list that i am guilty(?) of is table selection, is there really any need in the SS? i just pick the juiciest games and play them, taking note of my beautiful numbers.

[tree_stump]

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I also thought of another one: Spending too much time posting on 2+2 while playing. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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You laugh, but you may actually be on to something too... I find that I invariably experience a 2 to 3 buy-in downswing right after reading a book - takes some time to internalize the information and integrate it into my game, and I just don't play as well until I've done so.

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
How big of a downswing, 4 tabling 50NL at party, could one see before being alarmed. All of my stats in PT look great and this is around 50k hands of data. By the way MY current swing is around 7 buyins over 12,000 hands. However I have had 400 in bonuses to keep me profitable over this time.

Basically the bonuses helped me cope with this downswing but wanted to make sure I wasn't just happy playing losing poker. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be taking this very seriously if i was you. 7 buy in over 12K hands is not a down swing, its a losing trend.

if it was 7 buy ins over 1000 hands, I wouldnt be worried, but 12K hands is way too many hands to be slowly bleeding like that.

You said you have 50K hands before that. What was your win rate during those hands?

Limit players have extended losing streaks, but good NL players should not be losing for extended periods like this.

I lost 8 buy ins over 4 days one time ( 2 years ago) when I got real unlucky and then tilted away a couple buy ins.

Since that time, I have never lost more than 4 buy ins. I went about 2 weeks of breakeven play once and even that was enough to drive me crazy. If you are better than the people you are playing, you should be a on a constant steady uptrend with an occasional short but sometimes steep spike down when you hit a losing streak.

When its a slow down trend like this, you really need to find out why.

[ace_in_the_hole]

over the last 50,000 my win rate was 6bb/100.

[ace_in_the_hole]

I have been not been using gametieme+ or doing any table selection so I am going to start that and see what happens.

[-Skeme-]

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Should I be putting my money into the middle as a 4-1 favorite on the flop? or am i wrong in my thinking?

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No. Not even preflop either, so fold Aces.