Am I spewing here?

[chopper77]

I've been doing allright at Party lately, but these last couple days I've felt a little bit off. Lots of busted draws and whiffed overcards. Commentary on this hand would be really helpful, I've been in a lot of situations like this lately.

Loose table (55% VPIP.)
SB is 50/21/3.00
MP1 is 70/3/0.4

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (18 SB) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP1 calls, Hero calls, Button folds.

A scary board and there are lots of ways to beat me here. Looking at it again I'm thinking it would probably be better to raise this to buy the button, get some more information and maybe get a free card. This pot is huge and I'd rather not dump my hand just yet. I have maybe 4 outs, so calling isn't awful is it? Am I chasing? If I'm drawing dead I'm probably getting re-raised and I can get the hell out.

Turn: (11.50 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, MP1 calls.

Now I don't know about this raise. Open ended straight draw gives me some more outs, maybe now I have about 9 or 10 outs, the pot is big so I'd rather be aggressive. Is this spewing?

River: (17.50 BB) 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ????

I get checked to, it's a very big pot but I have nothing. I'm thinking I should probably bet here because passive MP1 is going to fold and SB will probably fold this 1 in 16 times if he's got nothing. Is this line of thinking correct?

Any feedback is very helpful. Time to go read the Playing Overcards section of SSHE again.

[davelin]

Don't raise the turn. Certainly don't bet that river.

[AngelicPenguin]

This hand seems backwards. If you're going to raise, it's probably best to raise the flop and buy a free turn card, rather than raise the turn when you have a small chance to improve. I might also cap PF thinking my equity and SBs are better than the other 4 players, so get them to keep putting money in. I probably cap PF, raise the flop, check/call the turn, and check/fold the river UI.

[cold_cash]

I don't like the turn raise. You just open up the action to the SB again, who seems capable of 3-betting with lots of hands, and all you have is a draw.

Against the regular crew I'm not betting the river. It's true that someone might fold Ace high, but the chance that someone actually HAS Ace high and will fold, compared to the chance that someone has 88, etc., and will call, makes me think this bet is a loser.

[Wetdog]

It is spewing a bit on the turn. You will only make 2 additional bets on your raise on a drawing hand. Nobody's going to run from one bet in a pot this big.

River, check. Nobody's going anywhere, least of all you.

[chopper77]

[ QUOTE ]
Don't raise the turn. Certainly don't bet that river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So do you fold the turn?

Raise the flop?

In retrospect I wouldn't think the river bet would so awful. Basically betting $1 at 17.50:1 that they both fold. If I check through I lost 95% of the time. If I'm raised I fold because I can't win any showdowns.

[gharp]

pre-flop: don't have a problem with anything there

flop: Normally I'd think pretty hard about folding this b/c of the threat of being dominated by SB. But his 21% pfr makes me think peeling one off here is good. I definitely wouldn't raise the whole field.

turn: With one card to come, I think I just call here. I don't think you had the equity to raise. Given that you did...

river: I'd bet, for the logic you gave. Good chance MP1 is on a flush draw and SB has an unimproved A.

Overall, FWIW, I think I like everything but the turn raise...

[chopper77]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand seems backwards. If you're going to raise, it's probably best to raise the flop and buy a free turn card, rather than raise the turn when you have a small chance to improve. I might also cap PF thinking my equity and SBs are better than the other 4 players, so get them to keep putting money in. I probably cap PF, raise the flop, check/call the turn, and check/fold the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

This line makes sense to me. Capping PF makes sense to me, and I wish I'd have raised the flop.

[davelin]

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Don't raise the turn. Certainly don't bet that river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So do you fold the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a third option...

[davelin]

[ QUOTE ]
In retrospect I wouldn't think the river bet would so awful. Basically betting $1 at 17.50:1 that they both fold. If I check through I lost 95% of the time. If I'm raised I fold because I can't win any showdowns.

[/ QUOTE ]

I put the chance you get both to fold at about 1 in 50.

[chopper77]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Don't raise the turn. Certainly don't bet that river.

[/ QUOTE ]

So do you fold the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a third option...

[/ QUOTE ]

Ha!

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
So do you fold the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dear God, no.

[chopper77]

[ QUOTE ]
I put the chance you get both to fold at about 1 in 50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then I got lucky. That was my biggest question, the chance that they both would fold.

Hero bets [$1].
SB folds.
MP1 folds.
Hero does not show cards.
Hero wins $17.75

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
I probably cap PF, raise the flop, check/call the turn, and check/fold the river UI.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not capping KQo against a 3-bet from SB in a multi-way pot.

[AngelicPenguin]

You don't think our equity is worth more than we're putting in with 4 others in the pot who have shown nothing? I know KQ isn't a monster multiway, but I figured with the sorta hands you see people play that it would be worth more than they have. I'm not 100% SB has a better hand even.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think our equity is worth more than we're putting in with 4 others in the pot who have shown nothing? I know KQ isn't a monster multiway, but I figured with the sorta hands you see people play that it would be worth more than they have. I'm not 100% SB has a better hand even.

[/ QUOTE ]

KQo is not as strong a hand as you think, as the chance you win unimproved is slim to none (granted, A high rarely wins also, but at least you have a much better chance of being ahead with A high than K high as so many people play Ax). I consider a raise on the flop and on the turn very chip spewy. Nobody is folding in a pot this big (this also holds true for your river bet). Check/call, check/call, check/fold in this hand is very appropriate.

[scotty34]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think our equity is worth more than we're putting in with 4 others in the pot who have shown nothing? I know KQ isn't a monster multiway, but I figured with the sorta hands you see people play that it would be worth more than they have. I'm not 100% SB has a better hand even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even at 50/21, what do you think SB's range of 3-betting hands are? I would say A8s+, ATo+, KJs+, 99+, KQo. How many of these are we beating? Not many. KQo is good against a bunch of random hands, but once you are 3-bet, proceed with caution, even if the raiser is very LAG. Especially with Button cold calling, BB calling 2, and UTG and MP1 calling 2 more. I can't imagine our equity is good here.

[AngelicPenguin]

Interesting...I was considering our equity vs the 4 other opponents though. You don't think if I make them put in another bet each, that my equity is more than I'm putting in. I was thinking in terms of something like (just off the top of my head) 30% equity SB, 20% equity hero, 12% everyone else, so I would be putting in less than my share. I'm guessing this isn't correct. What about something like KJs...seems like that would be reasonable.

[imported_Reaction]

[ QUOTE ]
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I put the chance you get both to fold at about 1 in 50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then I got lucky. That was my biggest question, the chance that they both would fold.

Hero bets [$1].
SB folds.
MP1 folds.
Hero does not show cards.
Hero wins $17.75

[/ QUOTE ]

There is always something to be said for the ol'parlayed facade /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[chopper77]

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I put the chance you get both to fold at about 1 in 50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then I got lucky. That was my biggest question, the chance that they both would fold.

Hero bets [$1].
SB folds.
MP1 folds.
Hero does not show cards.
Hero wins $17.75

[/ QUOTE ]

There is always something to be said for the ol'parlayed facade /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'll take it! I'll think twice about making the play again though, I can't believe they both folded in such a big pot.

For once I'm on the other side of the old "Call a river bet even in a big pot even if you suspect strongly you are beaten, as small stakes opponents will constantly surprise you with their bizarre holdings."

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]
I put the chance you get both to fold at about 1 in 50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well then I got lucky. That was my biggest question, the chance that they both would fold.

Hero bets [$1].
SB folds.
MP1 folds.
Hero does not show cards.
Hero wins $17.75

[/ QUOTE ]

There is always something to be said for the ol'parlayed facade /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I'll take it! I'll think twice about making the play again though, I can't believe they both folded in such a big pot.

For once I'm on the other side of the old "Call a river bet even in a big pot even if you suspect strongly you are beaten, as small stakes opponents will constantly surprise you with their bizarre holdings."

[/ QUOTE ]

Guess they were both chasing the same flush and missed.

[martinimagic]

Great hand to post. These hands have been the difference in my game. Took me forever to answer this.. flim-flamming the whole way.

Good raise PF. Not worried about SB 3-bet with the read given.

I am going to screw this up, but here it goes. The pot is getting big so raise and maybe you will knock some hands out... if not give the perception you have a big PP.

Raise the turn you have many outs.

Bet the river and pray for the folds. Wouldn't be surprise if MP1 has a J and is just calling down.

Ok. Now tear me up!!

[martinimagic]

I have been running into a lot of players that fold to bets here lately.. having a good read on them helps a lot. I will try to post some of my hands like this in the next few days. Knowing how to play these hands make a huge difference IMHO.

[NateDog]

Call the turn duder.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think our equity is worth more than we're putting in with 4 others in the pot who have shown nothing? I know KQ isn't a monster multiway, but I figured with the sorta hands you see people play that it would be worth more than they have. I'm not 100% SB has a better hand even.

[/ QUOTE ]

You might be ahead of SB, but it's hard to know. I'm not really looking at this from an equity point of view, but from a strategic point of view. You're almost certainly not going to win this hand unimproved and you're very likely going to have to ditch your hand if an ace falls. The pot is large enough that unless something explodes, I'm going to have odds to see the turn with overcards. Therefore, I would rather take a flop and have the option of raising SB's inevitable flop bet and getting players stuck *AFTER* I make my hand (it's *VERY* likely he's leading almost any flop, and if he checks, I'm worried that he flopped a set).

Preflop equity considerations have value, but pot-building should really be saved for those times when nobody has shown aggression or you have a true monster. Your edge is much more in question against a preflop 3-bet. You may be dominated by AK, AQ, and be in trouble against AA, KK, QQ and you usually won't be able to get away from your hand, making these costly. If everyone limped in, the liklihood of this disaster is greatly diminished.

[oreogod]

[ QUOTE ]
Great hand to post. These hands have been the difference in my game. Took me forever to answer this.. flim-flamming the whole way.

Good raise PF. Not worried about SB 3-bet with the read given.

I am going to screw this up, but here it goes. The pot is getting big so raise and maybe you will knock some hands out... if not give the perception you have a big PP.

Raise the turn you have many outs.

Bet the river and pray for the folds. Wouldn't be surprise if MP1 has a J and is just calling down.

Ok. Now tear me up!!

[/ QUOTE ]

If one of your table moves is depending on God (who I dont believe in) to pixie dust up your miracle cards, by all means follow this advice.

This kind of advise goes in the trash. Look at your outs, look what you are up against.


On the turn u have at the most 9 outs (7 for the straight because one out is tainted, 1.5 for a K, .5 - 1 out for a Q). But u are most definitly sweating a flush draw, your straight draw is tainted, your overcards may or may not be good...your equity at most is a little under 20 percent, which is break even with the number of players in the pot. And the likely hood of being up against a better hand is pretty well...not to mention the flush draw still drawing very live.

Yeah, that turn raise would be real bad. OP got very lucky in this hand, most...make that 98 percent of the time he is not going to win this hand.

Edit: 98 percent is probably the wrong figure here.

[oreogod]

heres some numbers,

I was a little off, if u are up against what I think u might be u lose 75 percent of the time. A5s (spades) takes it down 75 percent of the time

QTs takes it 79.55 of the time. If u are up against lower draws such as 98s or 75s or 67s the equity on the turn is in your favor. But I think an ace high is likely.