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Shakespeare
05-06-2005, 03:11 PM
So I have I understood the lesson or am I still missing the point of fold equity?

NL Hold'em $30
Total number of players : 4

Seat 3: 2nd_in_chips ( $2120 )
Seat 6: Last_in_chips ( $1300 )
Seat 1: Folding_hero ( $2920 )
Seat 9: All_in_villan ( $1660 )

Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Folding_hero [ Qh Kh ]
Last_in_chips folds.
All_in_villan is all-In.
Folding_hero folds.
2nd_in_chips calls [1260].

** Dealing Flop ** [ 4h, 6h, 3c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8c ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8d ]

2nd_in_chips shows [ Kc, Qd ] a pair of eights.
All_in_villan shows [ 9d, 9s ] two pairs, nines and eights.
All_in_villan wins 3520 chips from the main pot with two pairs, nines and eights.

A couple of weeks ago I would have made this call, however I have read some articles here that have changed my way of thinking (or maybe I have misunderstood and should be calling this?). The reason I took this example is that I have a good hand in the SB and the BB has nearly the same strength hand.

After this hand the BB is now the short stack, he has moved from a position of relative strength to desperation. The next hand he will post 200 in the SB leaving him with 660 chips (440 if he completes).

Thanks and keep those lessons comming.

beeyjay
05-06-2005, 03:20 PM
this is a clear fold for you.
however its kind of a reverse fold equity example. The pusher is using fold equity to increase the strength of his holding. his hand gains strength thru the fact that you will fold kq.

You need to then apply this fold equity when you are in the position to open the pot with a push. Your hand's EV goes up the more likely it is for those remaining to act behind u will fold.

tminus
05-06-2005, 03:32 PM
i agree
the fact that it's suited or connected doesnt help that much at this point because your odds of hitting flush or straight are quite small, you still hold two undercards to an ace or any pair

the only way Id push that hand is from the sb when bb is super tight and i havent exhibited any weak cards

bubble play is so hard for me, i tend to wait around for a great moment to push often times losing my blinds and feeling quite confused as to whether others are stealing or not

UMTerp
05-06-2005, 03:40 PM
[ QUOTE ]
the only way Id push that hand is from the sb when bb is super tight and i havent exhibited any weak cards

[/ QUOTE ]

This is bad advice. Any of those four players should push that hand if they are the first one in the pot. You could make an argument that any of the four players should push any two cards if they are the first one in.

tminus
05-06-2005, 04:05 PM
maybe youre right
but here's my thinking behind this

in this particular situation his stack is in good shape and the hand preflop is:
41% if 3 people call (unlikely)
49% if 2 people call (might happen)
62% if 1 person calls (most likely)
100% if nobody calls (might happen and you would increase your stack by 50%)

in this way it is a coinflip to me
what are your thoughts on this logic ?

UMTerp
05-06-2005, 04:09 PM
You're overestimating how often you'll get a caller here. It's just as common, if not moreso, that you'll steal the blinds than you'll get a caller. It's -$EV for your opponents to call with all but the best of hands, though most opponents at lower buy-ins don't understand this concept. Being first in is a huge advantage.

tminus
05-06-2005, 04:22 PM
i see your point, but it assumes that people understand that you need a better hand to call with than you do to open

this brings me to a point that ive been meaning to make,
i have a difficult time employing advanced strategies like this in a chaotic environment. i play the $10/1 and $5/1 SNG's and I usually see people calling huge raises with questionable hands and I try to adapt by playing tighter.
another example of this is blind stealing at lower levels which wont always work when people are super loose. Ive played a few $30 tables and find that its a completely different game.

so im in this spot where i have to consider whether the advice that i find out here is applcable to the games im playing.

im going to have to think about this one for a bit...

Nottom
05-06-2005, 04:29 PM
This isn't really any example of folding equity, unless you are talkng about it for the button becasue hes making you lay down KQ.

Don't be so quick to toss that KQs next time. If the button is a decent player his pushing range is large enough that its a pretty clear call. Obviously you are behind all the aces, but as soon as he starts pushing lessor broadways and connectors you get most of that EV back.

Phil Van Sexton
05-06-2005, 04:39 PM
[ QUOTE ]
This isn't really any example of folding equity, unless you are talkng about it for the button becasue hes making you lay down KQ.

Don't be so quick to toss that KQs next time. If the button is a decent player his pushing range is large enough that its a pretty clear call. Obviously you are behind all the aces, but as soon as he starts pushing lessor broadways and connectors you get most of that EV back.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. This is much closer to a playable than the OP thinks. If you push, the BB is going to fold like 95% of the time if he has a brain.

Since last_in_chips is about to post the blinds, I have to put the raiser on pretty good hand, and therefore I'll lay this down. I doubt he's raising 86o here with the shortstack about to eat the blinds.

If the shortstack had pushed, I push KQs here.

Scuba Chuck
05-06-2005, 05:12 PM
I haven't done an ICM calc long hand in a while, and I always fold KQ here, even from the BB. This will probably be a good exercise for me.

I'll use actual hands for one anlaysis, and then put villain back on a HR and rerun again.

$EV Analysis (ICM)
Folding (BB-folds) = 30% of the equity prize pool
Folding (BB-calls&L) = 32%
Folding (BB-calls&W) = 34%

I did the above analysis for myself, and thought the results to be interesting to report. Very wide range folding is.

Call and win = 41.6% of the equity prize pool
Call and lose = 19.7%

KQs v 99
47.4% card equity

KQs v HR (T) - 77, AT+, KJ+, QJs
43.6% card equity
KQs v HR (L) - any pair, any A, any two broadway, and a couple of broadway+9
50.2%

KQs v 99
Calling = (.197)(.526)+(.416)(.474) = .3007
Calling = 30%

KQs v HR(T)
Calling = (.197)(.564)+(.416)(.436) = .2925
Calling = 29.25%

KQs v HR(L)
Calling = (.197)(.498) + (.416)(.502) = .3069
Calling = 30.1%

Conclusion
For me, I think I'll keep folding KQ here. Especially considering the fact that BB is still left to act. Any assumptions on including a probability that BB calls makes this an easy fold, IMO.

tminus
05-06-2005, 06:22 PM
hey scuba, whats "HR(T)" ?
cant find it in the 'abbreviation section'
much obliged

spentrent
05-06-2005, 06:58 PM
I'm guessing he means Hand Range (Tight)...

[ QUOTE ]

KQs v HR (T) - 77, AT+, KJ+, QJs


[/ QUOTE ]

...as opposed to Hand Range (Loose)...

[ QUOTE ]

KQs v HR (L) - any pair, any A, any two broadway, and a couple of broadway+9


[/ QUOTE ]

tminus
05-06-2005, 07:13 PM
aha !

Scuba Chuck
05-06-2005, 08:59 PM
One thing I was thinking about including/discussin in this post is that we should consider this in the context of pot odds.

In this scenario, the pot odds are 1.54:1

With some better pot odds, say 1.75+:1, this coinflip might be a smarter move. Any thoughts?

Nottom
05-06-2005, 10:03 PM
[ QUOTE ]
One thing I was thinking about including/discussin in this post is that we should consider this in the context of pot odds.

In this scenario, the pot odds are 1.54:1

With some better pot odds, say 1.75+:1, this coinflip might be a smarter move. Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, if you swap the two small stacks and have the 1300 guy pushing instead of the 1600 guy this is almost an autocall.

Scuba Chuck
05-07-2005, 12:36 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Of course, if you swap the two small stacks and have the 1300 guy pushing instead of the 1600 guy this is almost an autocall.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if shorty pushes, I think you can for sure put him the looser hand range, which would definately make this a much easier call.