Pot odds + Ace + Sooted, what to do

[Phil Van Sexton]

I wanted to post a hand today. This is most interesting I can find without looking too hard.

This is 50/5. Several hands after the 86 hand (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=2325956&page=1&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1).

The villian has been pretty passive. He had limped and min-raised a few times in levels 1-3. He pretty much folded through level 4.

A few hands earlier on level 5 (100/200), he limped from MP with only 405 left. He then bet his remaining 205 on the flop and everyone folded.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP (t2480)
CO (t2310)
Button (t1375)
Hero (t1745)
BB (t1610)
UTG (t480)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t480 (All-In)</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

[Tilt]

I vote fold, since you dont close the action and your hand is not all that great.

Smooth calling is a bad idea unless your BB opponent would read a smooth call as a monster and fold. Pretty rare that you can assume such higher thinking among internet opponents. If you do a shutout reraise, you will be risking alot to get into a situation where you are pretty unlikely to be a big favorite over anything UTG holds and are quite possibly dominated by him.

So Id fold and pull a PVS next hand.

[rohjoh]

I push here, the big blind will fold all but the best hands, and UTG is pushing with any two because he is about to be blinded down to 180 chips if he does not. If UTG doubles up, he will be an easy target next hand for you to steal his blinds.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
I push here, the big blind will fold all but the best hands, and UTG is pushing with any two because he is about to be blinded down to 180 chips if he does not. If UTG doubles up, he will be an easy target next hand for you to steal his blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I probably push here too, but I'm not sure that we can take for granted that UTG is pushing with any two OR that BB will only call us with monsters. However, if BB folds most of the time, I think that's good enough, as we're getting just about enough in pot odds to deal with cases where UTG is holding A7, 88, etc., and this doesn't even take into the account that any broadway is almost certainly in his range here (and probably some weaker holdings, but I'm still not sold on any 2), which we'd love to see.

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
I push here, the big blind will fold all but the best hands, and UTG is pushing with any two because he is about to be blinded down to 180 chips if he does not. If UTG doubles up, he will be an easy target next hand for you to steal his blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes i agree that this is a push. Even if UTG has been passive so far he will probably realise that he is about to be blinded out and need to make a move with pretty bad hands here. I don't think he will be pushing any two though.

[Newt_Buggs]

I would have folded before reading this thread, now I'm thinking push. Anyone who isnt in lecture right now want to work out the math? It looks like you are getting 3:1 on your money if the BB folds

[Shakespeare]

I used to push, however I now fold and take my chances pushing when I am first into the pot.

[jah0550]

Not pushing any two?
I dont get that at all. The villian has 480 chips. You are in the BB posting 200. So, it's 280 to get 960. I call this with a 23o.

[Tilt]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have folded before reading this thread, now I'm thinking push. Anyone who isnt in lecture right now want to work out the math? It looks like you are getting 3:1 on your money if the BB folds

[/ QUOTE ]

But what is the BB getting when you push if he is holding something like AJs?

You are risking your tourney life for a shot at a marginally EV situation. What range will BB call with? Top 10% of hands? The 10% risk isn't worth it.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]
Not pushing any two?
I dont get that at all. The villian has 480 chips. You are in the BB posting 200. So, it's 280 to get 960. I call this with a 23o.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a highly confusing reply.

He's not talking about PVS pushing any two, but UTG.

PVS is in the SB, not the BB, which makes a pretty substantial difference in the odds he's getting, though they're still fairly juicy. (EDIT: It also looks to me like you're including the 280 you put in in what you can win and ignoring the SB, both of which are no-nos when calculating your odds. For somebody who was ranting about another player being a fish (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=singletable&amp;Number=2323251 &amp;Forum=,All_Forums,&amp;Words=&amp;Searchpage=0&amp;Limit=25&amp;M ain=2322910&amp;Search=true&amp;where=&amp;Name=15829&amp;daterang e=&amp;newerval=&amp;newertype=&amp;olderval=&amp;oldertype=&amp;bodyp rev=#Post2323251) the other day, you sure do seem to show a lack of ability to get anything about this hand right.)

There's a player to act behind you, which you better take into consideration before smoothcalling this with 32o.

[pokerlaw]

If you just call, i feel BB will certainly call. Therefore, I would push to isolate...you prob have a comparable hand to UTG, so the pot odds make it worthwhile i feel.

[TStokes]

What is a PVS?

[zaphod]

Another factor that needs to be consider is that you have to show your hand, so a push here could influence future FE. Don't know if this is good or bad though..

[J-Lo]

[ QUOTE ]
What is a PVS?

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil Van Sexton

[the shadow]

Fold. If villian has any pair, you're behind. If villian has Ax (x&gt;5), you're behind. You're ahead only if villian is pushing broadway or lower.

The Shadow (who suggests that instead of pushing, you call -- as in , calling All-in Anonymous for some help).

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to push, however I now fold and take my chances pushing when I am first into the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too. I don't care very much about a) knocking him out or b) winning his 480 chips. I'd rather fold, let the BB take him on, and push a different hand.

[ilya]

Looks like a push to me, unless you think UTG's pushing range is even tighter than something like "AA-88, AKs-A8s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A8o." Your equity if you fold is around 17%; as long as you're at least 37% or so against UTG's range, you gain equity by pushing - as long as the BB always folds to your push. I suppose the BB will occasionally call, and you'll probably be in real trouble when that happens, so to be on the safe side you probably don't want to push unless you figure to be at least 39% or so against UTG's range. So just put him on something looser than the sample range I gave, and you're good to go.

I'm sorry I initially slandered your 86o push. I should have given you the benefit of the doubt and done some calcs before going off on you.

[Dan Mezick]

The main question is do you have to call here?

You are 3rd of 6 in chips presently.

If you call and win you will narrowly be the first chip lead.

If you call and lose you will be sitting 5th of 6.

Do you have to call ?

No.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
The main question is do you have to call here?

You are 3rd of 6 in chips presently.

If you call and win you will narrowly be the first chip lead.

If you call and lose you will be sitting 5th of 6.

Do you have to call ?

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to call if you have AA either. But obviously it's hugely profitable. So why is whether you have to call the main question?

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. If villian has any pair, you're behind. If villian has Ax (x&gt;5), you're behind. You're ahead only if villian is pushing broadway or lower.

The Shadow (who suggests that instead of pushing, you call -- as in , calling All-in Anonymous for some help).

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty clear what he's ahead of and behind to. Put UTG on a range of hands instead. Even if UTG has been playing passive, there's a good chance he's pushing a wide range because of the incoming blinds. This includes all pairs and aces, but also a lot of weak broadway hands and perhaps suited connectors.

Your analysis also ignored the odds hero is getting in the hand, and the equity he has when he pushes and the BB folds. It seems Ilya has already done the calculations, so I won't be redundant. I'll just say that there's more to a poker hand than hands you're behind and hands you're ahead of.

-Phoenix

[the shadow]

Phoenix, I agree entirely that there's more to a poker hand than figuring out what's you're ahead of or behind.

You're also right that my post didn't mention the pot odds. It wouldn't be correct, however, to suggest that I didn't consider it.

I'm not in love with calling a push for nearly a quarter of my stack when I'm likely a 60/40 or 66/34 dog. You can pay me to do it, but I'd like a little more than t300 to do so. Heck I can get that, with less risk, by stealing the blinds once. Maybe if there were a limper or bigger blinds, so there were more dead money, or maybe if I were risking only 10% of my stack, I'd take the gamble, but not here.

I'm sure you'll agree, but there's also more to playing a poker hand -- especially a SNG -- than just pot odds.

The Shadow (who always appreciates someone pointing out something he got wrong or missed)

P.S. adanthar wrote a good post -- "I am only a coinflip, so I fold" (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Board=singletable&amp;Number=216 3968&amp;fpart=&amp;PHPSESSID=) -- on the same point you were making.

P.P.S. I wonder how many posters would be suggesting calling the push if the hand weren't sooted.

[curtains]

I believe I'd fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

Good post. Amazing no one has approached this from the right direction. There has only been a small discussion on hand ranges. Furthermore, no one has applied any math to this. Sigh.

Scuba
who's next to positive that pushing this hand is +$EV, but probably still folds.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post. Amazing no one has approached this from the right direction. There has only been a small discussion on hand ranges. Furthermore, no one has applied any math to this. Sigh.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey now. I did the math.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Good post. Amazing no one has approached this from the right direction. There has only been a small discussion on hand ranges. Furthermore, no one has applied any math to this. Sigh.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Hey now. I did the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol, my message was not meant for you smarty pants. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
Looks like a push to me, unless you think UTG's pushing range is even tighter than something like "AA-88, AKs-A8s, KQs-KJs, AKo-A8o." Your equity if you fold is around 17%; as long as you're at least 37% or so against UTG's range, you gain equity by pushing - as long as the BB always folds to your push. I suppose the BB will occasionally call, and you'll probably be in real trouble when that happens, so to be on the safe side you probably don't want to push unless you figure to be at least 39% or so against UTG's range. So just put him on something looser than the sample range I gave, and you're good to go.

I'm sorry I initially slandered your 86o push. I should have given you the benefit of the doubt and done some calcs before going off on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes even a passive UTG will wake up here i think. I think he is pushing way more hands than your thight example, something like:
-Any pair
-Any ace or king
-possibly some suited connectors and a few queens.

[ilya]

Btw, how come you still fold?

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Btw, how come you still fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Primarily because this is a $55, and I think BB is smart enough to call with most hands. I'd rather gain by either his tournament finish via BB, or have him win, and have a likely good blind stealing opp.

[Newt_Buggs]

bah, i scribbled down the math and figured out that it was very positive EV to push, but was too lazy to figure out what i had written down and turn it into a coherent post. I guess Scuba's post made me realize I really am a lazy bastad and should have posted this earlier today:

assuming that you push and the BB folds, you are investing 380 to win 1160. I put UTG on any pair, A, K, or Q. Yes, loose, but can you really say what he is pushing with here?
you will beat UTG 54% of the time on this range.
win the pot (.54)(1160)=+626.4
lose the pot: (.46)(380)=-174.8
net: +451.6 against UTG
however, I put the BB on a tight range, or AQ+,10+ which I think is accurate for most good players (dont know how competant he is though, personally I might fold AQ in his position)
A5s will beat this matchup 31.2%
you will lose 1610 chips (.69)=-1110
you will win 1610 (.31)= 499
net -610.9
there is only a 4% chance he will call: (.04)-610.9=-25
The problem with this? I don't know how to calculate 3 way all ins given hand ranged. Can this be done with SnG Power tools and if not anyone want to tell me how else?

451-25= +426

Assuming that I did the math correctly, this is no small edge.

Problems with my calculations:
1. As said before calculating in the BB calling is incomplete, but unless you think that he is calling with a wider range of hands this is almost meaningless anyway.
2. As always, showing down this push w A5s will look reckless and cause negative FE later, especially if you lose and double up the short stack pissing off all of the fish. The BB will be more wary of you as well.
3. The hand ranges are optimistic. 426 +EV is very large though and I would expect that you can narrow the UTG pushing range and increase the BB calling range significantly before this number becomes marginal.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Btw, how come you still fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Primarily because this is a $55, and I think BB is smart enough to call with most hands. I'd rather gain by either his tournament finish via BB, or have him win, and have a likely good blind stealing opp.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figured that into my math. I did 20% BB folds, 35% BB wins, 45% BB loses. It still looked like a push if UTG's range is not tighter than the one I specified.

[curtains]

Yeah ok I take it back, I would move allin.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah ok I take it back, I would move allin.


[/ QUOTE ]

You can't change your mind! Oh, are you a woman?

[curtains]

What can I do, I was wrong.

[viennagreen]

i haven't read all the responses, but it seems like people are saying push or fold---- and i don't think that either are correct.

i think that most people think that you have correct pot odds to call, but you don't want the BB to come along which a call would certainly provoke.

and pushing into a BB who quite possibly could wake up with a monster doesn't seem worthwile either, considering you really only want to be in the hand with the UTG player.

so why not min-raise here (btw, i normally think min-raises are almost all the time wrong)? BB will be suspicious, only get involved with premium hands, and you get to isolate the raiser....

[Phoenix1010]

[ QUOTE ]
and pushing into a BB who quite possibly could wake up with a monster doesn't seem worthwile either, considering you really only want to be in the hand with the UTG player.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a problem you're going to encounter every time you're heads up in the blinds after level 4. You can't be afraid to push because the BB might wake up with a monster.

[ QUOTE ]
so why not min-raise here (btw, i normally think min-raises are almost all the time wrong)? BB will be suspicious, only get involved with premium hands, and you get to isolate the raiser....

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems you're suggesting minraising more than half of your stack, and then folding to a reraise. If you're not suggesting folding to a reraise, then why not push? If you're suggesting that minraising affords you more FE than pushing, you're assuming too much about what average players will think.

-Phoenix

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah ok I take it back, I would move allin.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



You can't change your mind! Oh, are you a woman?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


What can I do, I was wrong.



[/ QUOTE ]

I missed this before, didn't mean to be so harsh. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Rosencrantz1]

[ QUOTE ]

assuming that you push and the BB folds, you are investing 380 to win 1160.

[/ QUOTE ]

SB = $100
BB = $200
UTG = $480
Total= $780
Our $380 call (which, assuming we push and BB folds is really what this is) means we're only getting 2:1 on our money, right?

I like folding it and waiting for something better.