$11: QQ in the BB vs. aggressive SB (first hand of the game)

[spentrent]

Sorry no history. I figured I did the right thing but it's been on my mind.

Party $10+1
10 players, all at 800
Blinds 10/15

- SB opens for 35.

- Hero sees QQ and raises to 125.

- SB reraises all-in to 800.

Hero wants to fold, thinking he can play a 675 early stack just fine. However, Hero decides that Villain has 88-JJ|AT+|KQ often enough to make a call correct. This is the first hand of a $10+1 after all.

[McBandit]

At the 10+1 I call everytime. I agree that I will get seen too may hands I dominate to fold it. That said, I will always run a player like this thru pokerprophecy to see if they are good. If they kill the game, I MIGHT just fold it.

McBandit

[Karak567]

I find al ot of times I run into hands that dominate me, however, last night, for example, I ran into 5Ts in the exact same situation.

I had KK in the BB and had 3 all-ins ahead of me on the FIRST HAND last night too. I decided to call and the villains had KJ, KQ, AT and 88.

My kings held and I took out 4 players on the first hand.

The fish will often push with a dominated hand just to "gamble it up." They don't seem to care about money.

I can't ever see myself laying down QQ PF in a 10 + 1.

[Iamafish]

Those people can make you or break you.

Id probably fold, but it depends on what Im feeling at that time. I also play 1500 stacks so...its a bit different. If your good at working short stacks, if your good overall, fold.

[hummusx]

Call every time. It sucks when it's KK or AA, but more often than not it's someone that decided that AQ is worth playing for all your chips in the first hand.

[Iamafish]

[ QUOTE ]
but more often than not it's someone that decided that AQ is worth playing for all your chips in the first hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is why I think its a bit of a feel thing. I can't explain it.

[The Student]

I think calling here is a very EV+ move. I don't have any math to back it up, but here's my thinking:

3 situations:
1. you're facing an underpair, making you 4.5:1 to win and double up on the hand
2. you're facing two undercards, making you about 5:1 to win and double up
3. you're facing one over/one undercard (a hand like A/Js), making you about 2.5:1 fave to win and double up
4. you're facing two overs (A/K), making you slightly better than a flip
5. you're facing an overpair, making you a 4.5:1 dog

at the $11s i think the chances of facing situations 1 - 3 are so enormously greater than #5, that you have to make this call and be happy with the result or move on. #4 is probably the most common situation you'll see (although you'll see this often enough with A/Q too), to still slightly motivate you to call here. Bottom line is that you'll be a huge favorite and stand to double up (which is very EV+) much, much more often than you'll be a dog to an overpair.

assuming that it's been folded around to the SB, you also have to think about the possibility that the SB might have a good, but not hand (mid PP) and might put you on a steal, so his push might not indicate the strength that such a move would represent from a MP player.


gotta call this every time against unknown $11 players.

ts-

[multifast1]

Easy call for me. I just can't see AA or KK making that little raise. A monster would just limp and hope you catcha piece of the flop. AK is slightly possible but I doubt it. Most likely a middle pair or Ax.. but decent chance of just about any naked big card too.

Here's my estimations:
Call & win = 80% ITM
Call & lose = 0% ITM
Fold = 30% ITM (Assuming you're a 40% ITM player)

Even if you assume you're on average a 60/40 favorite here... that means you're ITM 50% of the time by calling and 30% of the time folding. That's a big edge.