MLB 5/6

[MHoydilla]

I bet 2 games for tommorrow 1 unit each and a 2 teamer:

Tex - 1.5 runs +155 vrs Clev
Bost - 1.5 runs +140 vrs Seattle

2 Team parlay Tex -1.5 +155
Bost -1.5 +140
1 unit to win 5.12 units

Cle and Seattle have both been poor offensivly their last 7-8 games. Both Boston and Texas have powerfull offenses, that preform really well at home. Neither Boston nor Texas wins many games by 1 at home, I think these games are closer to 50/50 games then 60/40. Anyone have any thoughts on those games or others? I will also bet TB +1.5 Runs if they get up to +140 or more (currently +120).

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone have any thoughts on those games or others?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate laying runs. I just don't think the math adds up well for you here. Cleveland wins or loses by a run 74% of the time this season and Texas wins by 2 or more only 34% of the time. At +155 I think you are giving up some decent edge here. Plus Lee has been okay lately for Cleveland.

Boston only wins by 2 or more 39% of the time so far and Seattle has won or lost by one 60% of the time. Once again I see you giving up edges here.

Based on just the arithemetic I don't care for these plays. Doesn't mean they won't both come in I just don't think you are getting any value on these plays. Home field may skew it a bit (I haven't dug deeply yet) but in my experience laying runs typically means giving up lots of value.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/blush.gif..but what is the %cover of -1.5 when a team is -150 or worse; just lumping the whole year %cover of run lines does not seem reasonable to me

gl

/images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
just lumping the whole year %cover of run lines does not seem reasonable to me


[/ QUOTE ]

It does to me. But for example I just looked real close at the TEX/CLE matchup as far as this is concerned. As a +120 or greater dog Indians are 8-2 getting the runs. As favorites of -120 or better Texas is 4-7 giving the runs. I still don't like it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

If you really dig into the numbers you will find that giving runs is almost always a bad deal.

[mrbaseball]

I took a look at the other one too. Seattle as a dog of +120 or more is 3-3 getting the runs. Boston as a -120 favorite or better is 6-11 giving the runs. Unless you can squeeze lots of edge out of the specific matchups they don't look like they have any value at all.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif..ok...ok

thanks..

you know the whole strategy of baseball' at least in the last 2-3 innings is to win by one run...so really; your numbers make some sense; just thinking out loud' but..

does that mean that +1.5 is generally a winner???

gl

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
does that mean that +1.5 is generally a winner???

[/ QUOTE ]

In short, YES! Last season only the lowly KC Royals were sub .500 when getting the runs. Most teams plus the runs are well over .500 On the other side of the page when giving runs all teams were under .500 except for Boston who was dead on .500

I think the psychology is that people like the favs but don't like laying the juice and underestimate the power of the 1.5 runs. The lines almost always favor taking rather than giving the runs. About 70% of my play is on runlines, taking the runs.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif gr8 analysis mr. b

ya know everyone has in their minds...big powerfull teams winning 15-3, but mostly winning the one run games determines championships..

gl

thanks

/images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
... Seattle as a dog of +120 or more is 3-3 getting the runs. ...

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you use for looking this info up?

[mrbaseball]

link (http://www.jimfeist.com/MLBStats/FastFacts.aspx)

Go to this site (Jimfeist,com) in the baseball fastfacts section and then click on the team you want to look at. It will show the result and closing line of all their games. Not sure how accurate the lines are but I'm sure they are ballpark.

This fastfact website is my first look site and lets me know what I'm interested into looking into deeper. It has a lot of good info.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/confused.gif hey mr. bb

as long as you are in a giving mood; and thanks by the way..

what about pitcher rematches...happens more than ya might think..

i used to have a data base that showed a starting pitcher who pitched a decent g against teama and starter a; then next start again is matched against starter a and team a...go with pitcher who lost..

tia

gl

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[mrbaseball]

Good question /images/graemlins/smile.gif This does happen frequently. Typically I lean to the guy/team who performed better last time, especially if on the dog side.

Then again I have never tracked my results (or any results) on this oft happening occurance. My gut feel on these games is that I'm usually wrong and the team/pitcher that performed best (won) first time around inverts on the second try. But like I say I haven't tracked it. Just seems to me I typically lean towards last winner and it feels like this is wrong more often than not. I try to look at each game on it's own merits. But when I see so and so pitched a 3 hitter last week and his opponent got schooled and we have the same matchup today it makes it hard for me to lay off so and so if I feel the price is right.

I'd be interested in seeing long term results on this because the way the schedules are set this seems to happen a lot. It's just one of those things thats tough to look up. And I'm kinda uncertian about what kind of solutions you could draw?

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif the underlying psychological ploy is that someone who is a pro; who lost even though he performed well, will bear down a little more ; whereas the guy who won, and his team, may take it a little lightly...

of course, there could be a confidence factor of beating the pitcher and team before.. that could counteract this;

but the guy who thought it up; he was into karma, and felt "luck would even out in rematch /images/graemlins/smirk.gif