Middle pair, weak kicker with flush draw - flop decision

[chadplusplus]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif. CO posts a blind of $0.5.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (7 SB) J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero?</font>

Ok, so at this point, I can either raise, to protect my lousy bottom pair or just call and hope the others follow suit to get as much money in the pot in case my flush hits.

How would you guys play this?

Is it practical to try to do an EV for this? Because I started to try and realized it might take all night, but here's a simplistic estimation (perhaps too simplistic).

Simple EV Calc:

If I raise and assume everyone folds but the better.

I will improve by the river approximately 55% of the time (9 hearts, 3 7s, and 2 8s).

And heads up, I expect to win a considerable amount of time if I improve (90% too high?).

And I'll count one more betting round assuming the better will check to me most of the time, so if I improve, I will bet, and he will probably call as most .50/1.00 players will.

EV = (48%)(7.00 BB) - (52%)(1.0 BB) ~ <font color="red">3.00</font> + a negligible amount that I could win if unimproved.

Now if I just call...

This gets complicated, so bear with me and I'm open to all comments:

I can expect at least one of the blinds to stick around (just going by experience here).

So that gets 4.5 BB in the pot after the flop betting.

And I can expect the flop better to bet out again on the turn and I'll call. For this calculation, I also have to assume that the remaining blind sticks around.

So that puts 7.5 BB in the pot.

And If I improve, I'll bet out on the river and hope for a caller or two.

So total pot would be about 9 BB. And I have to assume I win most of the time with the flush (85%?) or trips (with no other draws out there), about 50% of the time with my low two pair, and about 5% unimproved.

So, EV = (35% + 6%)(85%)(9) + (50%)(12%)(9) + (5%)(9) - (54%)(2.5BB) = <font color="red">2.79</font>.

So its pretty close based upon these lousy calculations.

Thanks in advance for comments.

[scotty34]

I would say just call. There is a pretty good chance that your 8 is not good against UTG's bet. I dont think there is any reason to try and protect this. A pair of 8's just seems to marginal. Hope the blinds calls and your flush hits. If UTG shows aggression throughout, I may even fold the river if the pot is not very large and I don't hit my flush or two pair/trips. That may depend on if the cards to come are overcards or not.

[i wanna be me]

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I would say just call. There is a pretty good chance that your 8 is not good against UTG's bet. I dont think there is any reason to try and protect this. A pair of 8's just seems to marginal. Hope the blinds calls and your flush hits. If UTG shows aggression throughout, I may even fold the river if the pot is not very large and I don't hit my flush or two pair/trips. That may depend on if the cards to come are overcards or not.

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what he said

[McGahee]

Protect your middle pair? /images/graemlins/blush.gif
Go for overcalls dude.
Edit: if you have a LAG read on UTG, raising is fine.

[kapw7]

I would try to protect if I had Ah instead of 7h. With 7h it is too marginal I guess.

[Grail]

I call. Your hand is stong multiway so you want to induce callers to build to pot for a possible big hand.

This is almost the same as betting into 4-5 people with a strong flush draw. Your 1p makes if even stronger as an 8 will hold up often if your flush doesn't hit, and a 7 will let you win more than 25% of the time (against 4 other players)

With just the flush draw I almsot never raise here, but your extra 5 outs means a raise is probubly profitable, but I still think a call might be more so. Either way it's probubly close.

I a 8 falls on the river you may want to start pushing people out, and if a 7 comes you REALLY want people to go home. When the flush hits you want to do whatever you think will get the most money into the pot.

[string4]

*blind response, critique welcome*

Didn't take the time to check all of your math, but great job in taking the time to break it down like this. I've been doing this more and more and you learn so much just by thinking on these levels.

Regarding the post, I'm raising the flop. One of the things I always try to remember about protecting your hand through actions like this is that it often will force folds on players that have mediocre hands that might wind up outdrawing you (example: guy holding 9h, 9d and a the board turns four to the flush by the river). The other good thing about the flop raise is that it might give you alot of good info about what others are holding.

[aK13]

I call. I think our hand is not strong enough to win the pot unimproved, so I'd rather not blast away the field here, and keep people around to pump the pot when we do hit.

[Wetdog]

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And heads up, I expect to win a considerable amount of time if I improve (90% too high?).

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I think that is high. UTG could be on QJo or T9s or a very passive JJ. Maybe a couple bigger hearts, so 90% is a bit high.

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<font color="red">EV = (48%)(7.00 BB) - (52%)(1.0 BB) </font>

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OK, this is because I'm dumb but where does 48% &amp; 52% come from.

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And I can expect the flop better to bet out again on the turn and I'll call.

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I assume this is if UI? Because if I improve I'm raising UTG. But if UI:

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For this calculation, I also have to assume that the remaining blind sticks around.

So that puts 7.5 BB in the pot.

And If I improve, I'll bet out on the river and hope for a caller or two.

So total pot would be about 9 BB. And I have to assume I win most of the time with the flush (85%?) or trips (with no other draws out there), about 50% of the time with my low two pair, and about 5% unimproved.

So, EV = (35% + 6%)(85%)(9) + (50%)(12%)(9) + (5%)(9) - (54%)(2.5BB) = <font color="red">2.79</font>.

So its pretty close based upon these lousy calculations.

Thanks in advance for comments.

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Well, I think that on the flop you are getting 8:1 from UTG for your 4flush and pair. OTOH if you raise, you take 4:1 and possibly push the blinds out, leaving only 1 to pay you off on the more expensive streets if you hit the set or flush. I'm for calling here and calling on the turn if UI (still 4 or 5 to 1 pot odds vs about 3.5:1) or gunning it on the turn and river if you make trips/flush. Hit a 7 and I check down vs a possible straight.