Bad result good decision just off bubble with AQ?

[mojolang]

PokerStars Game #1645045012: Tournament #7652819, Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2005/05/05 - 23:18:22 (ET)
Table '7652819 1' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Citizendick (3840 in chips)
Seat 3: Qattick (2775 in chips)
Seat 5: chasiu (2335 in chips)
Seat 8: mojo99 (2190 in chips)
Seat 9: duman (2360 in chips)
chasiu: posts small blind 50
mojo99: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mojo99 [As Qh]
duman: folds
Citizendick: raises 200 to 300
Qattick: folds
chasiu: folds
mojo99: raises 1890 to 2190 and is all-in
Citizendick: calls 1890
mojo99 said, "gg guys"
*** FLOP *** [6c 5s 3h]
*** TURN *** [6c 5s 3h] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [6c 5s 3h Qd] [7d]
chasiu said, "gg mojo"
duman said, "gg"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
mojo99: shows [As Qh] (a pair of Queens)
Citizendick: shows [Kh Kd] (a pair of Kings)
mojo99 said, "blech"
Citizendick said, "gg"
mojo99 said, "bad play"
Citizendick collected 4430 from pot

I talked to a few players about this hand. The button was a pretty solid not terribly out of line. That said, given his chip stack and position, I felt like AQ was the best hand, given his range.

So I have 3 options:

1) Call and see a flop and check and fold if I don't hit
2) Reraise to like 600 and call an AI
3) Same but fold to AI
4) All in, my play?

Most people I talked to said that AIPF was the +EV play, tho if I get called I could be in bad shape

My friend said
"Yes, and if you go all in and don't win, you lose 100% of the time. You had other options, you may of been low, but the blinds were still relatively low. Second of all you still would've still had like 1500 chips if you didn't hit and AQ is nowhere near a great hand"

That said, as far as I can tell, AI was the best play. Schneids agreed. What you say?

[DasLeben]

I might consider calling to see a flop here, but more often than not, I won't play AQo behind a raise with 22xBB. And no, I don't consider all-in preflop to be +EV considering the deepish stacks. I could be wrong though.

[mojolang]

you are going to fold to a raise from the cutoff who is the chip leader in a 5 handed game with approx equal stacks? I think that might be a little weak.

Peace,

Joe

[curtains]

Folding is very weak. You can either call or raise. If he raised on the button I'm raising, the hand is just too strong. It's still very strong facing a cutoff raise, but not quite as much.

I think calling and raising are both very reasonable, and I'd lean towards raising. However if I feel I have great control of the table, I might just call and try to be the first aggressor later if things don't work out on the flop.

[DasLeben]

Sorry, I agree that folding this is very weak 5-handed. I didn't notice how many people were in the game. My bad.

[pergesu]

Eww eww eww

First of all, decide whether you think this is a good play or not. In your chat, you said, "blech. bad play." Were you just disatisfied with the result? Or did you correctly believe that pushing in there was bad?

I think that pushing is the worst play you can make there. He's got 300 invested, a healthy stack, a decent lead, and you're making him call another 1800? He's only going to call with hands that OWN you. AA-QQ and AK. Might make the call with underpairs. But take a look at that - you're a huge dog to win any time he calls. The 500 in the pot isn't going to do a whole lot for your stack.

Some of you guys are saying that folding is weak...newsflash: with 22 BB and stacks even with the rest of the guys, IT'S OKAY TO BE WEAK. If this was level one, people would say, "Call and see the flop. Pushing is for donks." Well what makes this different? Nothing.

AQ is a fine looking hand, until a solid player who can bust you raises from UTG. Then it becomes marginal at best. So why would you want to push in with it?

Calling and seeing a flop is fine. It's probably better than folding, in fact. I don't like raising because any decent raise essentially pot commits you, so you should be pushing anyway. And as I said, pushing there is bad. So look at a flop here.

Check out http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=2319689 &page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1 It's some good commentary on how you should approach the middle levels...and with your stack, you can coast into the blind stealing stages, no prob.

Don't risk your stack on a marginal hand when an opponent has showed aggression from a vulnerable position, and on top of that has the ability to bust you.

[curtains]

Very bad advice. Also if you are going to be so adamant about your position, please try to get the facts right. The raiser was first in from the CUTOFF in a 5 handed game, not from UTG.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
Eww eww eww

First of all, decide whether you think this is a good play or not. In your chat, you said, "blech. bad play." Were you just disatisfied with the result? Or did you correctly believe that pushing in there was bad?

I think that pushing is the worst play you can make there. He's got 300 invested, a healthy stack, a decent lead, and you're making him call another 1800? He's only going to call with hands that OWN you. AA-QQ and AK. Might make the call with underpairs. But take a look at that - you're a huge dog to win any time he calls. The 500 in the pot isn't going to do a whole lot for your stack.

Some of you guys are saying that folding is weak...newsflash: with 22 BB and stacks even with the rest of the guys, IT'S OKAY TO BE WEAK. If this was level one, people would say, "Call and see the flop. Pushing is for donks." Well what makes this different? Nothing.

AQ is a fine looking hand, until a solid player who can bust you raises from UTG. Then it becomes marginal at best. So why would you want to push in with it?

Calling and seeing a flop is fine. It's probably better than folding, in fact. I don't like raising because any decent raise essentially pot commits you, so you should be pushing anyway. And as I said, pushing there is bad. So look at a flop here.

Check out http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=2319689 &page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1 It's some good commentary on how you should approach the middle levels...and with your stack, you can coast into the blind stealing stages, no prob.

Don't risk your stack on a marginal hand when an opponent has showed aggression from a vulnerable position, and on top of that has the ability to bust you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Other reasons why this is bad advice:

You mention that you will be called only if you are dominated. This actually makes it a very easy raise, as the liklihood that your opponent has a dominating hand, is not very high, and sometimes youll win even then.

You can't just look at the range of hands they will call an allin with and decide they are all dominating you so you should fold. You have to look at how likely it is for them to actually have those hands, which is something you made no attempt whatsoever to do.


(I would just call here preflop a lot, but I'm pretty sure folding is worse than allin. If I'm wrong about this somehow, then it's not for the reasons stated above.

[curtains]

btw one last note....I am pretty solid, yet my raising range from the cutoff there is incredibly large, especially if my opponents have shown themselves to be tight.

[pergesu]

When he doesn't have a hand that beats you, you make 450 chips. What does that do to your chances of cashing or winning overall? Improves it, but not by a whole lot, considering you guys are all at similar stacks, comfortable compared to the BB.

What happens when he has a hand that your'e a huge dog to? You bust. It's true, some of the time you'll win, and someone here can use one of those nifty calculators to find out your chances of winning vs AA-QQ and AK. Most of the time you bust, making your chances of cashing obviously fall to zero.

I'm not going to get into the math (which I'm sure curtains can do a lot better than me anyway), because I've got three tourney's going right now. But basically, when you push and steal, you don't improve your chances of cashing very much. When you push and he calls, you're almost guaranteed that you don't cash.

It's the exact same principle as Harrington talks about somewhere in the book, about pushing with QQ early in a tourney. Most of the time people will fold, and you pick up a little bit in blinds. When you do get called though, you usually lose and bust out. And he was only talking about CEV there, not $EV. This is even MORE important in this position, because you're close to cashing.

I'm not failing to consider the range of hands that my opponent has. I'm considering the possible outcomes for each of the range of hands he has. And I think that because pushing here either marginally increases your chances of cashing, or drastically decreases it, pushing is a -EV play.

Hopefully eastbay or one of those other smart people can come in here and do all the cool math.

[curtains]

You are making too many mathemetical mistakes for me to give much credit to your argument. If called you are almost guaranteed not to cash? You've never seen AQ beat AK or KK? If you call odds like that "guaranteed", then you don't have a firm understanding of math.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't just look at the range of hands they will call an allin with and decide they are all dominating you so you should fold. You have to look at how likely it is for them to actually have those hands, which is something you made no attempt whatsoever to do.

[/ QUOTE ]
btw, as I alluded to in my previous post, my thought process goes something like this:
"What is the possible range of hands he has?"
"If I push here, what percentage of hands does he call with?"
"If he calls, how often do I win?"
"How is my overall chance of cashing affected when he folds? When he calls and I win? When he calls and I lose?"

Yeah, I didn't say that in the post, but that's fundamental poker work. Those are the kinds of questions you need to be asking yourself on every hand. I'm not going to explain how to differentiate between a premium hand and absolute trash, either - there are some skills that we assume are put to use any time a player is at a table.

[pergesu]

[ QUOTE ]

You are making too many mathemetical mistakes for me to give much credit to your argument. If called you are almost guaranteed not to cash? You've never seen AQ beat AK or KK? If you call odds like that "guaranteed", then you don't have a firm understanding of math.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course I've seen AQ beat all those hands. I've seen 72o beat AA, you have too. "Guaranteed" is too strong, but losing is definitely "likely."

AA vs AQ = 92/8
KK vs AQ = 72/28
QQ vs AQ = 70/30
AK vs AQ = 74/26

[raptor517]

well, the stars tournaments are a lot more deep stacked than party, and as such, you must play them differently. i like calling and taking a flop. if it comes Q high, well, you lose. folding is the worst play, pushing kinda sucks, but calling i think is goot. holla

[curtains]

Well okay a few notes... I believe that if we had 1500 chips in the BB, then pushing is correct and it's not close. The more chips you have the less attractive it is, but I have a hard time agreeing that it's terrible and by far the worst play, just because we have 600 more chips.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You are making too many mathemetical mistakes for me to give much credit to your argument. If called you are almost guaranteed not to cash? You've never seen AQ beat AK or KK? If you call odds like that "guaranteed", then you don't have a firm understanding of math.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course I've seen AQ beat all those hands. I've seen 72o beat AA, you have too. "Guaranteed" is too strong, but losing is definitely "likely."

AA vs AQ = 92/8
KK vs AQ = 72/28
QQ vs AQ = 70/30
AK vs AQ = 74/26

[/ QUOTE ]

Ridiculous. You think AK, AA-QQ are the only hands that will call you here?

No way. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked to be called with 55. Your advice in this thread is terrible.

[BDarch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

You are making too many mathemetical mistakes for me to give much credit to your argument. If called you are almost guaranteed not to cash? You've never seen AQ beat AK or KK? If you call odds like that "guaranteed", then you don't have a firm understanding of math.

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course I've seen AQ beat all those hands. I've seen 72o beat AA, you have too. "Guaranteed" is too strong, but losing is definitely "likely."

AA vs AQ = 92/8
KK vs AQ = 72/28
QQ vs AQ = 70/30
AK vs AQ = 74/26

[/ QUOTE ]

Ridiculous. You think AK, AA-QQ are the only hands that will call you here?

No way. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked to be called with 55. Your advice in this thread is terrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

aagreed

[curtains]

Well I don't think he ever stated that only AA-QQ and AK would call here. I just don't like folding, however I have no problem with calling preflop, and in many games it may be the best way to play. If you are folding AQ to a cutoff raise with these stack sizes, you will get massacred by aggressive players.

[pergesu]

Alright, to reiterate the point that people have clearly missed.

Calling is far better than pushing, and this is why:

I push and he folds. Big whoop, I get a few more chips.
I push, he calls and I win. Holla, I'm making money.
I push, he calls and I lose. Damn.

Winning a few chips and losing all your chips happen a disproportionate number of times compared to doubling up. Thus there is not much to be gained by pushing here.

I also think that folding is better than pushing, because you don't stand to lose anything. Nobody ever lost a tourney by folding with 22 BB left.

[curtains]

Ok your points are all fine and good, but you could make this argument without looking at your hand. You are basically saying 500 chips is meaningless. So you shouldn't push AK either? Or QQ? I just dont get it.

[pergesu]

You are basically saying that AQ is similar in value to AK and QQ?

There are plenty of times where AQ isn't very strong, especially when faced with a raise. I'm sure I'd push AK and QQ here without a second though. But there are only 6 combinations of hands that put AK in bad shape, compared to 24 combinations of hands that have AQ in bad shape. It's pointless to get into a discussion of the depreciation of hand values - it's simple stuff covered in every poker book, and you know all of it.

I hate pushing with AQ because you have too much to lose, not enough to gain. Simple as that. Anyone wanna gamble it up more, no skin off my back.

[spentrent]

Consider his open-raise range in the CO 5-handed. Broadway connectors (and one-gappers) and 77+? Maybe any suited connectors 45+? Pushing back will make him fold all but the best.

I don't mind calling and seeing a flop but I can't dismiss a push here that increases Hero's stack by ~20% except for those few times Villain happens to have a monster.

[curtains]

No, my main point was that quotes like the following:

"I push and he folds. Big whoop, I get a few more chips"

are not usually indicitive of someone who's playing the right way. This mindset would often be terrible in a multitable tournament, however in a sit and go it's more reasonable. But still you can't discount 450 chips when you have only 2100. They do matter.

Again I also see nothing wrong with calling here. If you had less chips (around 1500-1700), I think calling would be a mistake, and allin would be easily correct. I believe 2100 chips is kind of in a gray area where calling is okay against most opponents. However if your opponent has been aggressive throughout the event, I feel you should be moving allin.

[Cry Me A River]

Call me weak, but, as a matter of policy I make it a rule to play very tight against the big stack unless I have a specific read as they're generally much more likely to make marginal decisions to try and build their stack while busting people out - ie: If I know he's an aggresive stealer who is likely to fold anything but premium hands when played back at. Even then, I really dislike pushing AQ against agression when I'm not in desperation mode.

I don't mind calling here and playing the flop, however I think pushing is way too dangerous and you'd be much better off stealing against the other three 2K stacks. There's just no real reason to be taking coin-flips here. Yeah, you'd love him to call with AJ, but what about TT? Or even KTs? Sure you have a bit of an edge there but I think when you consider all the hands you dominate, plus all the hands which crush you, plus all the coinflips/slight favorites this winds up basically being a coin flip. A coin flip you don't really need.

If you were T1000, then sure, absolutely, push away. Or if this was against one of the other T2000 stacks and he'd been doing some stealing then I'd absolutely play back at him. But doing this against the big stack is way too likely to result in self-destruction.

[Cry Me A River]

[ QUOTE ]

No way. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked to be called with 55. Your advice in this thread is terrible.


[/ QUOTE ]

So you want a coin flip here for all your stack?

Why?

If I do push back here, the hands I want to see calling me are far fewer than the hands I really do not. Particularly if I feel I have any kind of edge against these opponents. If they're all way better than me and I'm going to need to get lucky to win then okay, you have a point. Against typical SNG players you shouldn't need to take such big risks with such small edges.