whats the math on this!!!!

[PoKeRPooT]

5 player sng/ first hand /i am SB/ everyone folds/ battle of the blinds situation.

I bump it up 4x BB with Q8 offsuit to a guy named kingpokerxxx

he calls me flop comes 3d Ks 8c.....I bet the pot well 150

A thought pops into my head a gr8 bluff right here would be to go all in on me..naw he dont have the balls, i raised him and he just called

All of a sudden he is ALL-IN I think about it maybe he kind of slow played KK or was just calling with KQ-9....no way my instincts tell me this is a huge bluff a "macho i'm gunna take charge first hand" type move

I call him purely cuz my instincts are screaming too....... YES he has 2c 6c!!! nothing at all..... I caught him with his hand in the cookie jar all the way down to the elbow!!!!

FINAL BOARD 3d Ks 8c / 7c / Qc....RUNNER RUNNER FLUSH FOR THE BLUFF!!!!
all i could do was laugh I made the right play I think. What do you think???

[DemonDeac]

ok
this needs to stop

[closer2313]

I think the math on this is

C(10,2)/C(45/2) * 100 ~ 4.5%

[etgryphon]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the math on this is

C(10,2)/C(45/2) * 100 ~ 4.5%

[/ QUOTE ]

You are too nice for your own good.

-Gryph

[closer2313]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the math on this is

C(10,2)/C(45/2) * 100 ~ 4.5%

[/ QUOTE ]

You are too nice for your own good.

-Gryph

[/ QUOTE ]

lol thanks /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[deadmoney314]

You are close to the correct answer, but you are making it too complicated. A much easier view of this problem since all running clubs are live is to ask, what is the probability of a club AND another club. (prob of a turn club)-->(9/45) AND-->* (prob of a subsequent river club)-->(8/44) = (9/45) * (8/44) = ~3.6%

[closer2313]

One club on the board, 2 in his opponents hand means there are 10 clubs left
(10/45)*(9/44)~ 4.5%

or C(10,2)/C(45,2) ~ 4.5%

[mostsmooth]

cookie jars dont have elbows