MOHEGAN...5-10 HAND..6TH STREET DECISION

[CJC]

Hello Again All...

I returned to the poker scene last evening after a 3+ week layoff. In general I played well and I did have a very successful session. However, the following hand posed some challenges and I am actually unsure of my play.

Pot was rather large with lots of players contesting on 3rd-5th streets. I will start the description of the action on 6th, as thats where our dillemas start.

There is three of us in on 6th..

OPPONENT 1 (XX)Qs10c8dQc
OPPONENT 2 (XX)Ah5d4h5h
ME -------(8d9d)10d2d6c7s

Opponent 1 bets out for $10 and Opponent 2 raises to $20..

Action to me..

Do I Re-raise to $30.. Just call the $20.. Or fold?

Due to earlier action I have opponent 2 on a split pair of aces to start. Opponent 1 could have a larger range of hands but is still relatively solid.

What would you do?

CJ

[Dynasty]

You make it 3 bets. I don't think this is a difficult spot at all.

It's always helps to provide the 3rd to 5th street action.

[CJC]

Opponent with Ace showing in door raised on 3rd street. Was high the whole way and bet out. ( till 6th when QQ was high )

CJ

[Tom D]

“OPPONENT 1 (XX)Qs10c8dQc
OPPONENT 2 (XX)Ah5d4h5h
ME -------(8d9d)10d2d6c7s

Opponent 1 bets out for $10 and Opponent 2 raises to $20.”


I think if opponents 1 and 2 are capable of thinking, you should fold. Opponent 1 would probably make the same assumption you did that Opponent 2 had split Aces to start, so his (Opp. 1’s) betting out after pairing his door-card Queen into a highly probable Aces-up looks like at least trips.

Opponent 2, knowing Opponent 1 would have put him on Aces to start, and now Aces-up, needs to be full (A,5; A,A; 4,4; or 5,5) to raise.

There is, however, an outside chance that Opponent 2 started with the 2 and 3 of hearts in the hole, in which case you could be throwing away the best hand, but I think Bayes’ Theorem would still suggest you muck.

If Opponent 2 is clueless, you should probably raise.

Tom D

[DoctorK]

I don't know if I agree with the fold here... Is it possible that the Ace is raising with Aces up against what he thinks *might* be Queens up or a straight draw with a pair of Queens... and hoping that the probable flush draw won't call two cold (and possibly have to call a re-raise from the Queens) on a draw?

I think that's a valid play with Aces up there, making at least a call by our hero the correct play. I would be aggressive here and raise my straight+flush redraw.

Doc.

you probably wont get anybody out with a raise and theres too many chances for you to get beat
plus, you might be beat already, im thinking the Qs didnt start with just split Qs and garbage,it was probably a k,q,j,10 with the pair, and two of those are obviously trouble
did you raise on 4th?
have you seen any other Qs? seems like it would take better cards than just a pair to call all the bets against As. if i were rolled in this spot, i wouldnt let anybody know with all the betting thats going on
but then again, the q may just have pocket As
i would need to be there in the hand to get a better feel
i would call, due to lack of info

Seems to me the most likely hand for the queens is either trips or full house. Maybe the split aces was really a big flush draw that hit. Or maybe it was something huge, like rolled, or a five that has filled.

On the other hand, it's possible that the queens was draw or smaller pocket pair with queen kicker, that the aces are simply aces up and that the queens tried a semi-bluff, aces up raised and you have the best hand.

A big pot favors calling. But a solid read that someone is full or has a big flush (note that your flush draw is unlikely to beat the other flush -- even if you catch Ad on river, your next card is only a 10) would cause me to fold. Your hand really can't improve in any meaningful way, and it could be expensive to stay -- if queens are trips or full, they will raise behind you.

Due to the amount of action to come, this is not one of those "I'm probably beat but what the heck, I'll call for the size of the pot for one more bet" situations. It's really a case where you have to read hands and opponents and play some poker!

Dynasty, I think your advice to raise is far off the mark here. No one is dropping and even if CJ has the best hand, he has virtually no redraw while they both do.

[Tom D]

I suppose it’s possible that Opponent 1 would bet Qs with a gut-shot straight draw, but I think it’s a pretty bad play in this spot. The only saving grace for doing that, that I can think of, is that he might have the best hand (Qs or 2 pair), and since he will call a bet anyway, he might as well bet it with reasonable confidence no one will raise his paired door-card. If that’s the case, he stepped into some doo-doo in this hand.

The key for me, however, is that Opponent 2 raised. What is he thinking? In his spot, I would have to think he would think that there was a significant likelihood he was looking at trips, at least, and now needs to hit the river to win.

I can certainly appreciate CJC's dilemma here. The pot is not all that big, and it’s two bets to him with the possibility that he’ll be looking at another two bets when it gets back around to him. Also, you should factor in that even if he does have the best hand on sixth-street, it’s going to lose sometimes.

So…if I had to make a decision right now to either never call or always call (or raise), in this exact situation, I think I would do better never calling.

Having said that, I’ve been known to throw away the best hand, which I don’t like very much. I would be a bit annoyed, for example, if Opponent 1 had bet out with trip Queens or a made Queen-high straight, was raised by Opponent 2 with a wheel, and I mucked.

Tom D

with a large pot and the typical player at that game, which i have played often, there is no way i would fold. calling is not bad. raising is questionable but might be teh best play. although you are putting lots of money in where it is possible you have the worst playing hand, especially if opp2 has a flush already, which is usually what a sixth street raise means, and opp 1 could even have trip queens. given the possibility that opp2 doenst have a flush, which is less likely than he doesnt, and if he does not you have a made straight and a fourflush you should probably raise. i would definitely raise if there was any chance opp 1 had trips but would fold them, and there are players like this.

Pat

Pat, I have to disagree with you that raising is an option. Your flush even if you hit it is very likely to be smaller than opponent's flush. I think this is a call for size of pot or a fold if you are 90% sure you are beat. I can't EVER remember seeing an opponent who would fold trips on sixth street unless they were sure they were against bigger trips. In other words, they will draw to the full here against flush or straight. I guess it's possible there's a scenario where opponent two has aces up, you reraise and opponent one folds trip queens thinking opponent two has trip aces or a bigger full house. But I think it's much more likely you are beat already and will be reraised.

[Zoe's Echo]

Results??

[CJC]

Hello Again Everybody,

I see we have quite a few differing opinions on this one..

Dynasty Wrote....

"You make it 3 bets. I don't think this is a difficult spot at all."

I have to respectfully disagree with you here!! Now granted, I probably should have provided a little more info in the original post, but this hand presents some problems.

1)The paired doorcard Queens are betting right into an (obvious) Aces that just improved.

2)The (obvious) Aces are raising a paired doorcard Queen that has already been calling bets/raises from an Ace.

3)If the Ace who raised,didn't do it with Aces..another very likely holding is a big 3 flush..thereby giving him a flush..beating my made hand.

4)My position in the hand was not optimal.


I'm not saying raising is wrong here...the very concept of raising is why I posted this hand to begin with..

Tom D wrote...

"I think if opponents 1 and 2 are capable of thinking, you should fold"

While the players were actually halfway decent. I wasn't prepared to fold (yet) for that pot. I would have to be much more convinced that my holding is no good for a fold here.

Pat wrote...

"with a large pot and the typical player at that game, which i have played often, there is no way i would fold. calling is not bad. raising is questionable but might be teh best play."

Precisely my thinking Pat....


So in conclusion...

To me it was a choice of whether to flat call or re-raise..
Like I said above, I certainly wasn't prepared to fold yet. ( although I would of had a tough call if it was 2 more bets back to me ). But I was uncertain ( and quite frankly.. still am ) if a Raise was best.

I decided to just flat call. The queens behind me just called the re-raise.

RIVER
------
On the river the Queens LED OUT AGAIN. /forums/images/icons/confused.gif
Other opponent just called.
I just called.

Open Queens did have 3 Queens.( with the bigger straight draw)
Other opponent had Aces-up(with a 4 flush)
I took it down with my straight.

Thanks for the responses,

CJ

[Mason Malmuth]

While more description is needed of the earlier streets, I thinky Dynasty has it right.

MM

If you don't know where you stand, you should raise. If you are fairly sure you are up against a full house or a big flush, you should fold because you are drawing dead. A lot depends on how much is in the pot and how good a read you have on your opponents.

Calling is not horrible, but it's not likely to be the best play, because of what can go wrong on seventh. Keep in mind that you will be last to act on the river. If you just call on sixth, the opponents can easily put you to another tough decision on seventh if the action goes bet-raise to you. If you reraise on sixth, however, this will often slow them down on seventh, and very often it will go all-check or bet-call to you, and your check or call on the river will close the action. It's something akin to raising to get a free card, but the idea here is to minimize the cost of calling with a losing hand on the river, while getting more money in the pot now in case you do have the winner.

Lin