Value bet this river? AJo on the button [Archive]

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bozlax

05-05-2005, 04:09 PM

Villan looks to be TPP, but not enough hands for a solid stats read, and I'm 4-tabling, so I'm not catching individual plays.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP3 calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP3 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls.

River: (8.25 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero ?

This board just kept getting scarier. I've caught a couple of guys today playing like this with just overcards, and been rivered like this with guys staying in with crapboxes. If he had bet out the river, I definitely would have called, but since he checked I figure I'm WA/WB and plan to check. Well?

Niediam

05-05-2005, 04:11 PM

Why wouldn't you bet? You have TPTK and villian has not shown very much aggression.

crownjules

05-05-2005, 04:17 PM

I'd bet it, calling a raise. I doubt villain was betting an 8 on the flop. If he does show overcards, thank him for not charging you as much as he should have.

milesdyson

05-05-2005, 04:21 PM

Value bet this. He has AJ, KJ, QJ, or JT much more than he has any hand with an 8 or a hand that made two pair on this board.

Buddy list UTG+1 and UTG+2 by the way. Limping and folding for one more shows they are exactly the players you want sitting at your table.

chris_a

05-05-2005, 04:25 PM

Considering the possible hands that he would be the flop with, and the fact that he already checked the river, you should bet this for value. More often than check-raising, a player will lead out on a river like this with an 8.

According to HEPFAP, (you are being checked to on the river) you need to be ahead 55% of the time that he'll call you here to justify betting. Considering that he bet the flop and called the turn, you will probably get this 55%.

Also, this is not the condition for a WA/WB play. "WA/WB play" seems to be the hammer for every nail for this month on micro. Do a search on the proper times to apply this.

bozlax

05-05-2005, 04:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Value bet this. He has AJ, KJ, QJ, or JT much more than he has any hand with an 8 or a hand that made two pair on this board.

Buddy list UTG+1 and UTG+2 by the way. Limping and folding for one more shows they are exactly the players you want sitting at your table.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. This reaffirms my analysis of my recent play: in cases like this I'm being too passive, but in cases where I'm actually likely behind (say a K fell on the flop and Villan raised the turn) I'm playing too aggro.

Oh, and the limp/folders already have their seats on the Buddy Boat.

NickRegino

05-05-2005, 04:28 PM

I would bet the river also, top pair with the highest kicker.

Disconnected

05-05-2005, 05:15 PM

You should bet this, don't think you can put him on an 8. If he's tight and passive, what would you put him on to limp pre-flop and bet into a raiser on the flop that has an 8? I would guess he's got a pair, maybe top pair with a worse kicker than you, and he's calling you down.