Bubble play ... yeah another one.

[Nottom]

Party 50+5

Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: nott0m ( $1986 )
Seat 6: EightNOut ( $2370 )
Seat 7: Kirkee ( $1632 )
Seat 8: lifes3ps ( $4012 )
Trny:11937306 Level:6
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to nott0m [ As 7c ]
EightNOut folds.
Kirkee folds.
lifes3ps raises [450].


My action?

I'm not really sure what to think or the psuedo-min raise. He had just knocked out 2 players to take the chip lead and put us on the bubble a few hands ago so I'm not sure how aggressive he is in this spot.

[curtains]

Depends how often you think he will fold. If the answer is never, then you have to fold. If the answer is often, then you should likely push. I find that they fold a lot in this situation, but ok it'd often depend on my read of the opponent. Don't you with the idiot just moved allin to begin with so you wouldnt have to torture yourself?

[Nottom]

What if you think its 50/50 he will fold?

[hummusx]

If I didn't feel like I had a read on this guy, I'd just fold it. You've still got a lot of playing to do, right? If I felt like his raise told me something and I knew what that something was, I might make a play. Otherwise I'm back to, 'You've got lots of chips, just pick a different pot.'

[curtains]

If it's 50-50 he will fold I suspect you should move allin.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
If it's 50-50 he will fold I suspect you should move allin.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if I agree with that. I would think that if it were 60/40 yes, but I don't think 50/50 is right. This hand is very weak.

Nottom, for me I generally fold this. But I have the same dilemma. This looks just like a move where SB completes (where I would definately push this hand). Assuming this is an aggressive player who's stealing blinds, we should figure out what is the minimum hand to push here with. Might spend some time tonight to figure this out.

FWIW, I don't think this hand is strong enough if the probability of folding is just 50/50.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it's 50-50 he will fold I suspect you should move allin.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if I agree with that. I would think that if it were 60/40 yes, but I don't think 50/50 is right. This hand is very weak.

Nottom, for me I generally fold this. But I have the same dilemma. This looks just like a move where SB completes (where I would definately push this hand). Assuming this is an aggressive player who's stealing blinds, we should figure out what is the minimum hand to push here with. Might spend some time tonight to figure this out.

FWIW, I don't think this hand is strong enough if the probability of folding is just 50/50.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree

[ilya]

MIN-RE-RAISE! BWAHAAHAHAHAHAHHAA

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it's 50-50 he will fold I suspect you should move allin.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if I agree with that. I would think that if it were 60/40 yes, but I don't think 50/50 is right. This hand is very weak.

Nottom, for me I generally fold this. But I have the same dilemma. This looks just like a move where SB completes (where I would definately push this hand). Assuming this is an aggressive player who's stealing blinds, we should figure out what is the minimum hand to push here with. Might spend some time tonight to figure this out.

FWIW, I don't think this hand is strong enough if the probability of folding is just 50/50.

[/ QUOTE ]


Obviously A7o headsup isnt a VERY weak hand, the only reason it's weak is because we don't want to gamble for all our chips on the bubble. If this was a winner take all tournament, you'd be an idiot to fold here.

Anyway my rough numbers say that if you your opponent folds 50% and you win 44% of the time that they don't fold, its about break even. I'd lean towards folding now, assuming they will fold to a raise 50% of the time, but I think it's pretty close.

This probably means you should fold to begin with in your hand.

[beeyjay]

i initially thought it was an easy push but his stack is big enough i think you could go either way with it. overall i take that raise as total weakness but the fact he could call you and lose and still have 2g in chips is probably comforting to him here.