Stolzmann-Giang KT v AJ WPT Hand

[Bill Murphy]

Haven't seen any discussion of this one anywhere. IIRC, its headup and Chau has a very slight chip lead. Blinds are high but still relatively small to their stacks. Chau limps w/AJ and John checks w/KT. Flop Q8x, check-check. Turn J, John bets ~pot, Chau calls[?!]. River A, John jumps like he just got struck by lightning then pushes, Chau does a Pacino, then cry-calls.

I dunno if I could fold here, but I think Chau should be able to.

On a related note, there was a similar hand to this one played btwn Scotty & Kevin McBride headup at the '98 WSOP: "[15K-30K-3K, Scotty has slight lead w/3.5KK chips in play]In the hand that breaks McBride's spirit, Kevin for the hundredth time only calls a raise. The flop comes K 7 2. McBride breaks his pattern and checks. This time it's a fatal mistake. The turn is an Ace. Again, Kevin is paralyzed. He checks. The river is a Queen. Everyone in the house knows what Scotty has, except Kevin McBride.

Kevin, in a critical error, has waited too long. He bets $120. Scotty wants so much to bet enough to put Kevin all-in, but is afraid McBride will fold. He decides that 300k is just enough to get a call. The vast experience difference between Scotty Nguyen and Kevin McBride finally pays off for Scotty. Kevin calls the $300,000. Nguyen turns over the nuts. J 10. Kevin has A Q for top two pair."

Also the supreme example of Mike Paulle's lovely habit of ridiculing "rookies" while sucking up to "pros".

[bruce]

I think Chau played the hand poorly. If he raised BTF he wins
the hand on the flop assuming he bets. I will not be giving
an inexperienced player a free look at the flop especially when
he is out of position.

On the turn when Chau pairs up moving all in or a big reraise may have gotten him the pot. John, knowing he is
the dog, may have been willing to gamble with one card to come, but somehow I thing he would have folded.

The river play was horrible by Chau. He looked like the
amateur.

Bruce

[Vincent Lepore]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno if I could fold here, but I think Chau should be able to.


[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? I caught the tail end of this hand. It was obvious from Chau's expression that he was thinking "I don't know if I could fold here but I think Bill Murphy would be able to." then he called. Go figure.

O.K, silliness aside, I am somewhat inclined to agree with you. But it is just an extremely difficult laydown with top two playing heads up. The problem is that Chau let the hand go to where the Ace could give John a smaller 2 pair. Chiau did not want to call but must have thought that John was either on a stone cold bluff or had Aces up smaller than his. What's interesting is that I've heard that Chaiu is one of the best high limit poker players in the world and he makes a fatal (mistake?) call against a novice. Interesting to say the least.

I didn't see the McBride, Scotty hand. But I believe that McBride is no rookie.

Vince

[jba]

IIRC I think you have the board wrong, because Chau kept muttering about T8 or whatever made a smaller straight. he kept wondering if that's what the guy had but didn't seem to want to put him on KT but rather a smaller straight. At least that's what I thought I heard him saying. And I'm pretty sure that there was a lower one or two gap lower straight.

[Pov]

IIRC he has the board correct. T9 would have made a Q-high straight. Chau muttered about both hands (KT being the other one) before calling.

[GuruCane]

Chau seemed to be 50/50 on whether to call or fold. He made a bad call. What I don't understand is why he didn't simply fold b/c of his skill level and overall edge if the game continued from there. The kid wanted big pots and he got one here. I think Chau still has almost 2M left if he mucks and a skill edge. For that reason I fold. I call if I was the kid and it was Chau who makes that bet b/c "I have to win those hands if I am going to win a tournament" against a player like Chau.

What I found very interesting (maybe so b/c of the fact I could see his cards) was the WAY in which the kid bet. He reaches for a stack, does a double take/flinch and says "uh I'm all in." May be reading too much into that but it was noticeable to me.

[Pov]

I agree with your reasoning. I would be very interested in what made Chau play it the way he did. There were several other plays that I didn't think looked appropriate, particularly a couple of all-ins that allowed cheap escapes from the amateur. I am quick to realize I don't have even measurable skill compared to Chau, though, so maybe the answer is obvious and I just don't get it.

[AnyTwoCanLose]

Those are the breaks.

If the slowplay would have induced a bluff it would be hailed as a genius.

The hand wasn't played that poorly. Its always easier for us to say what we would have done after we know the cards that were dealt and the cards in the other guy's hand.

Heads up you can't assume the other guy always has the nuts.

[WriterBoy]

Here's the thing. Chau wassn't looking at the _kid_ at all. He probably didn't even see the chip reach. It looked to me like Chau was seriously steaming, bewildered that this punk kid was putting him in tough spots.

The old fart choked under the pressure, plain and simple.

[sketchy1]

Him fumbling the bet could be a sign of something BESIDES the nuts. He could be thinking with his A8 that he has a monster and that there's no way Chau has aces and eights beat. I question the bet, because it's definitely 50/50 if Chau will call it even with something like a set or the small straight.

His fumbling the bet and stuttering into an all-in could easily be a sign of a bad bluff as well. John didn't look like a deer in the headlights, per se, but it was obvious this was his first time there. NOthing to be ashamed of in the least... I doubt I'd be able to prevent such things from happening if I end up in his shoes.

The only reason I think that Chau should have DEFINITELY folded was how big of an overbet it was. The only hand Chau can beat here is a complete bluff or a smaller two pair. John isn't betting that much with one pair or a baby two pair... he probably has the straight or a set. Chau wasn't worried about the money, so I think he decided to gamble and hoped he had a worse two pair than he did. Nothing wrong with that if you're not exactly overly concerned with the money/title. If he's right, it's all over. If he's wrong, well, pray your next hand holds up.

[GuruCane]

Chau only has 200K left here so it was "all over" for both. I agree with the rest of what you said, however. This is why physical tells are so difficult to utilize--you don't know what they mean. Always agreat topic for debate.

The fact is, he should have laid it down b/c of his skill edge. I mean the guy can play some serious poker!

To the poster that said Chau was steaming--agree 100%. When the kid check raised him on that one hand he looked like he was ready to give the kid a spanking [insert lewd comment here]. I love when Chau starts cursing--it's awesome!

[TomHimself]

I thought Chao played alrite, there were a couple of times when he overbet the bet the pot too much when he couldve extracted more-checkraise against mizrachi and i think stoltzman had a mid pair-queen and chao had top pair king he reraised stoltzman when he couldve extracted alot more

[GuruCane]

I didn't see the Grinder portion of the episode (although I am happy that that cocky douchebag lose), but I thought the overbet by Chau against Stolzmann was great. Amateur player thinks that an overbet is usually a bluff, Chau knows this so he goes one level up on the TOP psychology scale and overbets. However, seeing how he regarded his opponent he may not have been thinking this at all. He may have thought--"this guy has a piece and is stupid enough to call me." Who knows?

[betgo]

Not raising preflop with AJ was strange. I assume Chau was playing for a checkraise and also mixing up his play. A preflop raise is unlikely to make KT fold heads up.

As for the flat call of the pot sized bet when a jack hits, there was a queen on the board, so Chau didn't know he was ahead.

As for the call when an ace hit, it is hard to fold top two pair heads up.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought the overbet by Chau against Stolzmann was great. Amateur player thinks that an overbet is usually a bluff, Chau knows this so he goes one level up on the TOP psychology scale and overbets

[/ QUOTE ]


That's exactly what I thought.
With an over-bet he can get the kid to think, "this guy is trying to push me around. he knows i'm tight so he'll fold if I push back."

The over-bet was trying to induce a bluff re-raise imo on one of the hands.

I think there was another hand where he just didn't want to give the kid any cheap cards because the board was draw-heavy though....and this was another good spot to over-bet imo.

[Bill Murphy]

My whole point[if you can call it that], is that the pot is small, Chau'll have plenty of chips left he folds, and he has a huge experience and bankroll edge on the kid. And he appeared not to even notice John's jump when the A hit.

Kid ain't bluffing or going all in w/raggy two pair here, not w/that scary a board and over 2KK chips himself. A very tough fold, tho, which is why a 4k-8k player should be able to make it.

IIRC, McBride had playing for about a year before the '98 WSOP. Good interview w/him somewhere in CP's archives. He played the final table OK, he just got tired and Scotty rolled him. '98 WSOP noteable for many reason's: TJ's terrible blunder, first appearance by VVP, etc.

May be in Vegas soon, hope to see ya, Vince.

[Vincent Lepore]

[ QUOTE ]
My whole point[if you can call it that], is that the pot is small, Chau'll have plenty of chips left he folds, and he has a huge experience and bankroll edge on the kid

[/ QUOTE ]

It's hard to argue that you are not correct. I play a lot of SNG's, not that they are simila,r but I do get heads up quite often. I do not see Chau at many final table NLH tournaments. I see him at Bellagio quite often but I very rarely see him play heads up No Limit. It just may be that he was the novice when it comes to Heads up NLH. I'm not claiming that I know how good he is I'm just pointing out that there is a good possiblity that he is not very exeperienced in this type of Poker. I find from my experiencewhen heads up I do not have a great edge over anyone. Although it really is difficult to tell. That said I think that Chau looked confused and unsure when JS raised all-in. In a situation like this the best play might be to err on the side of caution. I guess I agree with you...sort of.

Vince

[RotoJeff]

I thought the call that Chau made on the river was similar in some respects to the one he made against Paul Wolfe in that tournament that was on the Game Show Network. Obviously, the hands were significantly different (Chau flopped a full house but eventually lost when Wolfe drew out quads on the river). He agonized over Wolfe's all-in bet, not willing to believe that he had the only card that would beat him on that hand. Of course, in this case, it wasn't at the final table, and the call knocked him out of the tournament. But the body language and the way he talked out the hand were very similar.

What does this all mean? Probably not a whole lot, but I was drawn by the comparison.

[willie]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought Chao played alrite, there were a couple of times when he overbet the bet the pot too much when he couldve extracted more-checkraise against mizrachi king he reraised stoltzman when he couldve extracted alot more

[/ QUOTE ]

no freakin way The Grinder puts another chip in that pot on the river if he doesn't have Chau beat.


how can you say he should have smooth called the turn agains the grinder when the kid picked up top pair to go with his nut flush draw?


that is an EASY way to go broke slowplayin yourself to death.

[Sully]

I was really surprised to see Chau twitch and jump like he had been poked with a cattle prod on the hand before (I think). He lost all control of his body, and it seemed like he could barely get his hands to fold the cards after the reraise.

Considering the fact that he is considered one of the top money players in the world, it seemed very, very strange. The money doesn't mean that much to him, but when I saw that, I realized that he REALLY wanted that title.

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Chau played the hand poorly. If he raised BTF he wins
the hand on the flop assuming he bets. I will not be giving
an inexperienced player a free look at the flop especially when
he is out of position.

On the turn when Chau pairs up moving all in or a big reraise may have gotten him the pot. John, knowing he is
the dog, may have been willing to gamble with one card to come, but somehow I thing he would have folded.

The river play was horrible by Chau. He looked like the
amateur.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]

huh? You want him to move all-in on the turn w/2nd pair but fold Aces up?

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
Chau seemed to be 50/50 on whether to call or fold. He made a bad call. What I don't understand is why he didn't simply fold b/c of his skill level and overall edge if the game continued from there. The kid wanted big pots and he got one here. I think Chau still has almost 2M left if he mucks and a skill edge. For that reason I fold. I call if I was the kid and it was Chau who makes that bet b/c "I have to win those hands if I am going to win a tournament" against a player like Chau.

What I found very interesting (maybe so b/c of the fact I could see his cards) was the WAY in which the kid bet. He reaches for a stack, does a double take/flinch and says "uh I'm all in." May be reading too much into that but it was noticeable to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Didnt see anyone mention this, but what struck me was Stolzmann's massive overbet on the river when he hits the absolute nuts. Stolzmann has no reason to believe the Ace helped Chau, and obviously he was extremely lucky that it did, but you'd think he'd want to get as much value out of his hand as he could. Before the river, I was hoping for the Ace so I could see how it would play out. I assumed Stolzmann would make a calculated bet, mayb 1/2-2/3 of the pot, and Chau would just feel compelled to raise. At this point, when Stolzmann inevitably raises all-in, I think Chau feels pretty uneasy about it but would be committed by that point, if he didnt just move in with his original raise. I believe the original board was K87, turn J, river A, so Chau was worried about both 9T and KT. I do think you guys are being a bit hard on him, though. It would have been a terrific fold if he'd made it, but he simply has a huge hand heads-up, and its also a very funny looking bet for Stolzmann to make with any hand that beats Chau's, as he has no reason to believe Chau can call an all-in. I think maybe some of you are also overestimating how big a favorite a top player is against a regular winning player like Stolzmann in a Heads Up match with stacks as deep as they were.

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
Not raising preflop with AJ was strange. I assume Chau was playing for a checkraise and also mixing up his play. A preflop raise is unlikely to make KT fold heads up.

As for the flat call of the pot sized bet when a jack hits, there was a queen on the board, so Chau didn't know he was ahead.

As for the call when an ace hit, it is hard to fold top two pair heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

It wasnt top two pair, but its still aces up. Also, Stolzmann actually made a slight overbet on the turn if I remember correctly, which gives further reason as to why Chau may have decided to just call.

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
I was really surprised to see Chau twitch and jump like he had been poked with a cattle prod on the hand before (I think). He lost all control of his body, and it seemed like he could barely get his hands to fold the cards after the reraise.

Considering the fact that he is considered one of the top money players in the world, it seemed very, very strange. The money doesn't mean that much to him, but when I saw that, I realized that he REALLY wanted that title.

[/ QUOTE ]

These guys are obviously really competitive, and they get pumped up or pissed off about winning and losing just like anyone else. Some seem to give a [censored] about keeping it inside and some dont. Its alot of money no matter who you are, but they also just want to win like anybody else.

[MeanGreenTT]

[ QUOTE ]
Didnt see anyone mention this, but what struck me was Stolzmann's massive overbet on the river when he hits the absolute nuts. Stolzmann has no reason to believe the Ace helped Chau, and obviously he was extremely lucky that it did, but you'd think he'd want to get as much value out of his hand as he could.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had the exact same thougts when I was watching, maybe I'm just not thinking on a high enough layer yet. I'd really like to hear from John his reasoning on the River bet.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Chau played the hand poorly. If he raised BTF he wins
the hand on the flop assuming he bets. I will not be giving
an inexperienced player a free look at the flop especially when
he is out of position.

On the turn when Chau pairs up moving all in or a big reraise may have gotten him the pot. John, knowing he is
the dog, may have been willing to gamble with one card to come, but somehow I thing he would have folded.

The river play was horrible by Chau. He looked like the
amateur.

Bruce

[/ QUOTE ]


Realize they show only a fraction of the actual hands on TV. For all we know this was the 5th time Stoltzman moved allin on Chaiu. I just don't get how people repeatedly make such harsh judgements on headsup play without seeing all of the context.

I'd like to know that I can just move allin on people at will, and they will be forced to fold two pair every time because obviously I must have the nuts.

[HelloGoodbye]

From the hands shown, I thought John played tremendous underdog poker. Props to him.