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View Full Version : Is this an easy call?

YKing
05-05-2005, 08:34 AM
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero ($96.5)
MP2 ($73.15)
CO ($87.5)
Button ($81.1)
SB ($216.81)
BB ($98.5)
UTG ($19)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, MP2 calls $3, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $24</font>, MP2 folds, CO raises $79.50 (All-In).

Final Pot: $116

No reads except he seemed decent.
FlipPoker
05-05-2005, 09:01 AM
Easy call for me. I read that the odds against having AA vs KK preflop are 22559:1 (more odds here (http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/texas-holdem-odds-probabilities.htm)). Seems to happen a lot more online, though (probably because I see so many hands). I once get all-in preflop with KK vs KK. He caught 4 more spades on the boards and he won the pot. Oh well, next hand...
YKing
05-05-2005, 09:24 AM
That's heads up, this is seven handed, so when I hold KK he holds AA about 1/37 of the times. Further, when he re-re-raises PF the figures you refer to is no longer relevant.
swolfe
05-05-2005, 09:28 AM
do you like to gambool?

pretty easy fold. this is one reason why you don't put the 3rd raise in with kings. it allows QQ and worse to fold and AA (or someone repping AA) to jam. smooth-call his $8 and flop a set to break his ass.
texasholdemnut
05-05-2005, 09:47 AM
I'm calling. I've seen people push with alot less than AA.
FlipPoker
05-05-2005, 09:58 AM
Absent of any reads, I still think you make this call. At this level, I've seen people make this play with AKo.
YKing
05-05-2005, 11:09 AM
Made a calculation.
With pot odds 1:1.82 I need to win about 35% of the time to make a profit.
If I put him on one of the following hands with a likehood of:
AA 70%
KK 6%
QQ 12%
AK 12%

...I'll win 33.6% &lt; 35% ==&gt; I'll lose in the long run. So if he holds AA more than about 70% of the time, I'll lose more by calling than folding.
swolfe
05-05-2005, 11:17 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Made a calculation.
With pot odds 1:1.82 I need to win about 35% of the time to make a profit.
If I put him on one of the following hands with a likehood of:
AA 70%
KK 6%
QQ 12%
AK 12%

...I'll win 33.6% &lt; 35% ==&gt; I'll lose in the long run. So if he holds AA more than about 70% of the time, I'll lose more by calling than folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

your calculations don't take into account the times you beat AA and the times you lose to AK/QQ, but i think he has AA here at least 90% of the time.
MikeL
05-05-2005, 12:13 PM
[ QUOTE ]
smooth-call his $8 and flop a set to break his ass.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, what you are saying is that you now treat KK like TT if
there is any PF opposition? Seems overly tight/weak to
me.

Maybe this is just a hole in my game, though.

Regards,
Mike L.
spoohunter
05-05-2005, 12:22 PM
You do not play KK for set value in this case. By smooth calling you can now bust QQ or JJ if the flop comes 10 high or lower.
Chicago Kid
05-05-2005, 12:23 PM
Given your read of this guy as being a "decent" player, you can then assume that he's not a terrible newbie player.

Would a decent player re-re-reraise AK? QQ or worse?

I guess it depends on your definition of decent....

This may seem a little tight, but if they player is indeed a decent player, I'd tend to give his hand a little respect here.
Chicago Kid
05-05-2005, 12:26 PM
I also agree with the earlier post recommending just calling the re-raise to $8.
swolfe
05-05-2005, 12:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
So, what you are saying is that you now treat KK like TT if there is any PF opposition? Seems overly tight/weak to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

right, i guess that's what i implied. really you're allowing QQ/JJ to continue thinking that they are best.

i'd call the reraise preflop and lead out on any flop. i might check-raise occassionally if the player is either overly loose with their preflop raises or overly tight (so they'd fold an AA to a big check-raise).
YKing
05-05-2005, 01:43 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Made a calculation.
With pot odds 1:1.82 I need to win about 35% of the time to make a profit.
If I put him on one of the following hands with a likehood of:
AA 70%
KK 6%
QQ 12%
AK 12%

...I'll win 33.6% &lt; 35% ==&gt; I'll lose in the long run. So if he holds AA more than about 70% of the time, I'll lose more by calling than folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

your calculations don't take into account the times you beat AA and the times you lose to AK/QQ, but i think he has AA here at least 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have taken this into account, but I didn't include the calculations here.
YKing
05-05-2005, 01:53 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Given your read of this guy as being a "decent" player, you can then assume that he's not a terrible newbie player.

Would a decent player re-re-reraise AK? QQ or worse?

I guess it depends on your definition of decent....

This may seem a little tight, but if they player is indeed a decent player, I'd tend to give his hand a little respect here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said that he SEEMED decent not that I knew he was. This was mostly because I hadn't seen he made any questionable play so far. In retrospect, looking in PT shows him having VP$IP:30%, PFR:8% for 100+ hands, so he probably IS decent.
gojacketz
05-06-2005, 12:15 PM
That 22,000 number is out of context. That is the odds that any two specific players have aces and kings at the same time - totally irrelevant to this discussion.

One of the criteria is already met in this situation: the player in question already has KK. So the odds of one of the other five players having AA is 1/220 each (I know it is a little greater since two Kings are gone from the deck, but I am lazy) - so the odds of one of the other five players having it is somewhere around 1 in 45 hands 1 - (1/(1 - 1/220))^5 = .0225 = 2.25% = 44-1 or so against someone else having aces.

Remote, but not 1/22,000.

Gojacketz
MarkL444
05-06-2005, 12:20 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Easy call for me. I read that the odds against having AA vs KK preflop are 22559:1 (more odds here (http://www.learn-texas-holdem.com/texas-holdem-odds-probabilities.htm)). Seems to happen a lot more online, though (probably because I see so many hands). I once get all-in preflop with KK vs KK. He caught 4 more spades on the boards and he won the pot. Oh well, next hand...

[/ QUOTE ]

worst attempt at logic i have ever seen
Grinder
05-06-2005, 02:11 PM
happened to me last night right after reading this post.... boy was i discouraged. but i playued on and hit quad nines against nut flush
Publos Nemesis
05-06-2005, 03:23 PM
4 times I got all-in preflop against uber fishes with KK. Twice I lost to aces, and twice I won against junk. I think the only way you get all-in preflop with KK is if you know the guy is an uber fish (VPIP &gt; 50% and pfr &gt;20%).

given your read, you have to put him on AA and call his reraise. Moreover, if you are sure he has AA, you want the other player to call behind you in order to increase your payoff in case you hit your set.