Push or No

[minwoo]

I'm not even thinking about the cards. All I know is that I'm BB next and if SB pushes, I have to fold my trash and I will no longer have FE. Past few days have been very frustrating for me. I've officially moved down to the $33s. I need to figure out how to win without getting a run of awesome cards. Please comment.

Party $33 SNG
Seat 1: Hero (1180) UTG
Seat 3: Dieseldust33 (1060)
Seat 4: commish2k (1200)
Seat 6: billicastell (2510)
Seat 8: Hornacek930 (2050)
billicastell posts small blind (150)
Hornacek930 posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Th, 2s ]
Hero Push or Fold

[Pepsquad]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not even thinking about the cards. All I know is that I'm BB next and if SB pushes, I have to fold my trash and I will no longer have FE. Past few days have been very frustrating for me. I've officially moved down to the $33s. I need to figure out how to win without getting a run of awesome cards. Please comment.

Party $33 SNG
Seat 1: Hero (1180) UTG
Seat 3: Dieseldust33 (1060)
Seat 4: commish2k (1200)
Seat 6: billicastell (2510)
Seat 8: Hornacek930 (2050)
billicastell posts small blind (150)
Hornacek930 posts big blind (300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Th, 2s ]
Hero Push or Fold

[/ QUOTE ]

Fold. I know it's getting late and you can't be too choosey but you're actually not in horrible shape here. 3rd place only has ~20 more chips than you. Pushing crap into the entire field just isn't a great idea. Stay the course. Wait for a quality hand. And I'm not talking about AK - I'm talking about Ax, Kxs, Q9, etc.
You bring up a good point about losing FE after this hand but I don't think that offsets the -EV of pushing here.

[minwoo]

bump...anyone else

[UMTerp]

I'll usually push there, but it's closer than normal since your cards are THAT bad.

[xPuns1her]

FOLD, easy.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I need to figure out how to win without getting a run of awesome cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This issue needs to be addressed before you move up. You will win more and lose less figuring this out before you move up. Hint: FE.

[Scuba Chuck]

This hand is a VERY easy fold. That's why you're not getting any responses.

You need to go back over previous hands to look for opportunities. IMO, you should review the previous ten hands in this game to see what you missed. If any. There's no guarantee there's an opportunity, but if there was, it was before this hand.

Pushing/Betting this hand is very poor.

[minwoo]

Ok,
Points well taken.

So it's correct for me to believe that it's better to lose that fold equity than to push trash like this.

Anyone disagree and what are your arguments? If no more replies, then I'll just realize that I'm the only one stupid enough to push this /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Phil Van Sexton]

Doyle Brunson won 2 WSOPs with this hand AND I beat Voltron with this hand last night to save face.

Therefore, I vote push. Where is Strassa to back me up?

[Costanza]

Disclaimer: I'm following some advice to start posting my thoughts on some of these hands so people can tell me why I'm wrong.


I vote for a fold here also. You're worried about the next hand folding around to the SB and him pushing on you, but you're likely to have a better chance of surviving that with the next two cards you receive than the trash you're holding here. At that point you'll also be getting proper odds to call a push.

Turn that 2 into 8h or any 9 and I think I might change my mind.

I'm interested in the minimum hand people would have to see here before it becomes a borderline to easy push.

[willie]

fold man!

for gods sakes, there is no way you can push this at a 6 handed game or whatever you're at UTG....

i'm slumpin it up too and have dropped a level, but still decisions like this are run of hte mill and you definitely KNOW the correct answer to this.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll just realize that I'm the only one stupid enough to push this

[/ QUOTE ]

Minwoo, do the math. It will answer itself for you.

What are the calling ranges of everyone except the BB? What is the calling range of the BB?

What is the probability of them holding those hands. Then, what is the card equity you have against that range? Plug it into an ICM calculator. I don't know the answer off the top of my head, but I don't think it will look very good.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone disagree and what are your arguments?

[/ QUOTE ]

This comment, to me, tells me a lot.

[minwoo]

Ok time to feel more stupid. I never do the math at such depth. ICM calculator? What the hell is that? Ok, Independent Chip Model. I know what it is. I just never bothered to use it/figure it out. I've done fine through the $33s without such complicated aids. But maybe it's time I start exploring it. Any posts ya'll (yeehaw!~ I'm from Tenneseee) can refer me to that walks through the ICM or any other model would be appreciated.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
Minwoo, do the math. It will answer itself for you.

What are the calling ranges of everyone except the BB? What is the calling range of the BB?

What is the probability of them holding those hands. Then, what is the card equity you have against that range? Plug it into an ICM calculator. I don't know the answer off the top of my head, but I don't think it will look very good.

[/ QUOTE ]


This requires eastbay's calculator or a lot of spare time. I don't have it at work, but maybe someone else can run it.

Note that he will be posting almost 40% of his stack over the next 2 hands. The ICM doesn't account for this, so even a -$EV from ICM doesn't end the argument.

Unless they pay something for 4th place, I'm probably pushing here.

It should go without saying that I would've pushed with any 2 on any of the previous 3 hands if it were folded to me in order to avoid this predicament.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]
It should go without saying that I would've pushed with any 2 on any of the previous 3 hands if it were folded to me in order to avoid this predicament.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the most important thing, really. I think someone said farther up that you should go back through and see which of the last 5 hands you should have pushed instead. If you are going to push T2 from UTG, then wouldn't J6 UTG+1 look better? Sometimes there just doesn't seem to be anything to push, but I know after reading this thread I'm going to remind myself when I'm in the SB and on the button with trash that I can't make it another orbit without pushing SOMETHING.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I've done fine through the $33s without such complicated aids.

[/ QUOTE ]

You sound like me 2 months ago.

ICM (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html)

You will also need pokerstove (google to find page - firewalled for me /images/graemlins/tongue.gif)

Don't buy Eastbays tool until you learn how to do the math long handed, IMO. That would be like using a calculator, but not knowing how to multiply or divide.

Post some hands and try doing the math. My advice is to choose hands that you might consider calling with first. They are more interesting.

[jpg7n16]

[ QUOTE ]
Doyle Brunson won 2 WSOPs with this hand AND I beat Voltron with this hand last night to save face.

Therefore, I vote push. Where is Strassa to back me up?

[/ QUOTE ]

And to quote Doyle himself from SS2...

"... I won the 1976 and 1977 World Championships with trash hands... Of course in a normal ante ring game, I'd rarely play those hands... A major exception is when I play a pot for the sole reason of trying to steal it. Then, it doesn't make any difference what I have."

I fold that crap. ESPECIALLY UTG.

[hummusx]

[ QUOTE ]

And to quote Doyle himself from SS2...

"... I won the 1976 and 1977 World Championships with trash hands... Of course in a normal ante ring game, I'd rarely play those hands... A major exception is when I play a pot for the sole reason of trying to steal it. Then, it doesn't make any difference what I have."

I fold that crap. ESPECIALLY UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

But this ISN'T a ring game and it IS a steal attempt.