Big Pot: Overpair Laydown

[surfdoc]

I have been really reluctant to fold an overpair in this game and really felt like this was the right time. Pot is big, blah,blah. Villian is 25/10/1.5 over 600 hands but they were mined hands and I don't know him. The SB is a total donk at like 80/5/.5 and no threat in the game.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: surfdoc is MP2 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">surfdoc 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, surfdoc calls, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">surfdoc raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, surfdoc calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12.50 BB) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, surfdoc folds

Comments?

[goofball]

I hate it. Yes it sucks that you are probably behind but just call it down. He doesn't have AQs or TT? Even overplayed AK can take that line thus far fro time to time.

[Michael Davis]

Even good players who shouldn't overplay overpairs massively sometimes. The pot's big enough that catching him with QQ or TT makes continuing in this pot worthwhile.

-Michael

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot's big enough that catching him with QQ or TT makes continuing in this pot worthwhile.


[/ QUOTE ]
QQ has me crushed. if TT can cap preflop and bet, 3bet the flop and lead the turn here I think he deserves the pot.

[Michael Davis]

Oh jeez, obviously I completely missed the turn.

-Michael

[jwg152]

I would probably donk call this down if I was in a poor playing mood, but I think folding is the better play. What did you do? My money is on AA.

[surfdoc]

Can I convince myself that a reasonable player will bet into a preflop three bettor, get raised, then 3 bet with AQ having only 2 overs on a rainbow flop?

[patrick_star]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I convince myself that a reasonable player will bet into a preflop three bettor, get raised, then 3 bet with AQ having only 2 overs on a rainbow flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I doubt it.

I don't have any problem with this fold. Villain seems to be fairly reasonable, and thus doesn't seem likely to go apes**t with TT or AK/AQ that missed the flop.

Of course, given SB's crapulence it's likely we'll get to see villain's cards...my money's also on AA.

[adios]

Let me pose a question to you, how often would your overpair have to be ahead on the turn to make calling down +EV in this situation? Certainly if the pot was laying you the right price you'd call even if you were 100% certain that you only had two chances to win. Put another way if this pot was heads up and your opponent turned over cards and showed you JJ and the pot was laying you 30-1 you'd peel off a card. Therefore with some degree of uncertainty there's a price that the pot is laying you in terms of whats in their now and your implied odds. What percentage of time would your two cowboys have to be ahead to make calling down the right play? Put another way, if it was 19-1 against you having the best hand on the turn what is your EV when you call down?

[stoxtrader]

your turn fold is ok

it would be good if you capped the flop and he still bet into you.

[theBruiser500]

AJ, TT