77 in MP with Deep Stacks

[Chief911]

So we are about 30 minutes post-rebuy. Very loose table during the rebuy, and has tightened up considerably. Villian has played solid poker, nothing out of the ordinary.

Villian raises to 3xBB (450) from UTG+2 and has around 10k in chips. I call from MP with about 14k. Flop is 689 with two clubs.

Villian bets 600, and I call, figuring I have a decent shot at his stack if I hit.

Turn is a Qc (Note, I do NOT have a 7c). This could be either good or bad. I'm not sure which. But I have position, so life is good.

He bets 2400. So we know he didnt just make his flush. He bets the pot. With what?

Getting 4:1, I call, realizing I either have 8 outs, or close to 6 outs, and 11 fantasy outs.

River is a 3c.

Villian checks.

Hero?

Chief911

p.s. Does the converter work for PS tourney hands for anyone?

[durron597]

On the river, the pot is 7125. You have 11000 left in your stack, and he has about 8000. Thus there is no reasonable amount you can bet that you can fold to a check-raise. But you may want to bet less than allin to make it look like a value bet, if you decide to bet at all. But if you do lead out, you must call.

I think he has a big pair without a club. I don't think he plays very many other hands this way - does he fire out a third barrel with Ac Kh or something and then not lead the river?

I probably bet 5000 to take it down because of the scare card.

[Stipe_fan]

I think this is a good example of how strong calling can be at times. The check on the river in front seems very weak to me. I would bet out 4K and if he raises you must push. The 4K, to me, seems like you really want a call. If he does have the overpair w/o a club, I don't think he can call. It would appear to him that you were slow-playing a flush to the river and are value betting him. This assuming he is a player that understands the game.

Stipe

[durron597]

I agree with you except:

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet out 4K and if he raises you must push.

[/ QUOTE ]

The stacks aren't deep enough, if he leads out 4k the min-raise from his opponent *is* a push.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
He bets 2400. So we know he didnt just make his flush. He bets the pot. With what?

Getting 4:1, I call,

[/ QUOTE ]

PF = 150+75+450+450=1125
Flop = 1125 +600+600=2325

So if the pot is 2325 on the turn and he bets 2400, how do you figure you are getting 4-1?

I agree with duron that since he bet 1/2 pot on the flop and full pot on turn, he really likes his hand, but hates the clubs.

I think you are behind over 90% of the time here (the only hand he MAY play this way that you beat is AKo no club, not likely), but his river check looks weak. I don't think you called on the turn hoping to show down 77 so you must bet.

SInce you called on the flop and turn your hand can look like you have at least one club, maybe two....

He has 6500 left in his stack and I'd probably put him all in and see if he can call off his whole stack without a club, if he has a big pair without a club and you give him the option of showing down without risking his tourney life, he may take it.

I really don't like the turn call, I don't think you are getting the right price here, especially without a club, I fold to the turn bet.

I may also raise the flop in order to get a free river card and define his hand a little better.

I have started to call a lot more with position in order to bluff on later streets, and it has worked well for me when the oppoenent plays weak on the turn.

With your opponent here playing strong on the turn, he may have decided he's showing down his hand, but is letting you name the price on the river, thinking that if he bets he can't call a raise, so he *may* call here if its less than his stack.

Regards,
Woodguy

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
With your opponent here playing strong on the turn, he may have decided he's showing down his hand, but is letting you name the price on the river, thinking that if he bets he can't call a raise, so he *may* call here if its less than his stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the thought process that I had was that if it was a very very large percentage of his stack he would think that your bet would look more like a value bet than a bluff and thus increase his likelihood of folding. But I see what you're saying too.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, the thought process that I had was that if it was a very very large percentage of his stack he would think that your bet would look more like a value bet than a bluff and thus increase his likelihood of folding. But I see what you're saying too.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll "value bet bluff" when I think my opponenet wasn't very strong to start with. In this case I think he may have been strong and his hand lost value, so he may be "dying" to show it down ("LOOK MA, MY A'S GOT CRACKED AGAIN") so I don't give him the chance to lose to a flush and keep playing, if he shows he has to wager his tourney.

edit: its the $10 rebuy so the villian could be anything from a pro to a 5 assed monkey...who the hell knows what they will be thinking?!?!?!?!!?

Regards,
Woodguy

[Chief911]

First, Woodie, you're right. 3:1ish. Not 4:1.

Here's the thing I alluded to during the hand. He seems to have played this EXACTLY like you would play a big pair. Especially his pot sized bet on the turn. If he had AA, KK, QQ, and had a club, or AKo with a club, he's probably betting less here. IMHO.

I alluded to fantasy outs. In my mind, when I made this call, I counted all the clubs as outs, knowing that if he truly had what it appeared he had, he would have to fold to a club on the river, and I'd win with a made straight on the river.

So here comes the club, and after being strong on the turn, he all of the sudden goes limp on the river, and checks. I LIKE it.

I push, he folds.

I'm still not sure if it was the appropriate call though on the turn. I called getting 3:1 with odds, and having essentially 19 outs. If I do not count clubs as outs, then I have to fold this easily. But if I read his action on the turn as "I sure as hell would hate to see a club on the river" then its worth it.

As a side note. If I had played this hand 30 minutes later with this guy, I might have been more tempted to fold the turn. He was tighter than a virgin on her wedding night. Then again, maybe that's why he laid down his high pocket pair~

Nick

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
So here comes the club, and after being strong on the turn, he all of the sudden goes limp on the river, and checks. I LIKE it.

I push, he folds.

I'm still not sure if it was the appropriate call though on the turn. I called getting 3:1 with odds, and having essentially 19 outs. If I do not count clubs as outs, then I have to fold this easily. But if I read his action on the turn as "I sure as hell would hate to see a club on the river" then its worth it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I think the turn is a little loose but I like the way you played the river.

nh.

Regards,
Woodguy

[bruce]

Excellent river play.

On the turn how can you know that a club is an out for you?
He made a pot sized bet on the turn. If I have red Aces or
black Aces in his spot, I'll at the minimum make a pot sized
bet. I'm more likely with red Aces to make a bigger bet or
to even push, but if your oppponent is super tight he might
bet the same amount regardless of whether he has a club or not.

bruce

[yecul]

This is completely a read based play, so it's hard to discuss as an outsider. But, if you read him for an overpair without a club then that is absolutely the way to play it. Definitely took balls for you to do that.

[bruce]

How can you make this read online? I know I can't. In a B&M
setting yea, on my good days I can make this read.

Bruce

[Scooterdoo]

Hey, Chief. It was well played on the river given your situation. I think the fact that you called on the turn and he checked the river you basically had to push (if you had balls and we all know you do!). That said, I'm not sure where you got your read that he didn't have the club on the turn based on his pot sized bet. For example if he had AK, AA, AJ, KK, JJ, (all with one club or even two), why wouldn't he bet the pot? He has great drawing hands and probably the best hand at that point. He wants to make you pay to draw to a set, straight, two pair, etc., etc., but has the club out if he thinks you don't have the A of club and he does (or if he has the A of clubs and wants to make you pay to draw to a lower club draw). I also think that there is a possibility, in some situations that he actually made the flush on the turn, but doesn't have the nut flush and is worried that you have 1 higher club. This becomes less likely with his preflop raise from early position because what lower flush could he have made and bet 3xbb from that position? Probably none. However, assuming the preflop action went down differently and he had a hand like 9Tc I could see him playing this hand very similar to the way he did.

One other thing to note. Based on your analysis of the hand and the comments we have all made about the correct river play it sure seems like a great move by this guy to check the river if he did have the Ac in order to get the most value out of his hand. Don't you agree? Think about it. Given that he has been betting all along, his check on the river is basically giving you the green light to take a shot at the pot no matter what you have. If he bets you are likely to fold so the check would be a really incredible move on his part to induce you to bluff. Nobody suggested this because it's really a sophisticated move, but it's something to think about if we were in the 'villians' shoes. Thoughts on this?

[locutus2002]

I'm not sure I'm checking the nuts here, its too easy for villain to turn it over if he has a marginal hand (say the 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif).

I think your point is very interesting, and I interpret it as villain should not check this river under any circumstances. I would think he has as much FE here as hero.

[ron dogg]

I think the turn call is a little light. Whats that? A little under 20% of your stack? If the money was deeper, i'd like it more. The perfect card on the river, isn't that great? Also, I don't know what time of hands you like to play, but for someone who likes the suited connector game that flop is murder.

As for the river, I think a all in would make for an easier call. A 4000 "value bet" seems about right to me.

Well played, nice hand.
Ron-

[Scooterdoo]

No. My point was that if the villian had the Ac the standard play would be to bet -- either value bet if he felt the opponent didn't have that much or make a big bet if he felt he would get called. I'm saying that perhaps the best play would be to check the river and force the opponent to bluff at the pot as Chief did. This is because it is just so likely that after leading at every street and having the scare card come on the river that the opponent would likely take a shot at the pot with little if he shut down -- as Chief did and as we all are saying he should do. Make sense? You're saying that you wouldn't check the nuts because it's likely that the opponent would not bet and turn over the 7c. However, if he did have the 7c would he call a major bet? Maybe, maybe not. I'm suggesting that in the long run he may make the most money by checking; sometimes he gets nothing (which he might do anyway if he bet), but many more times the opponent would take a shot at the pot and sometimes (like now) the opponent would push and you get all of his chips.

[Scooterdoo]

The all-in bet is still tough to call given that any club makes you a loser. While the all-in is suspect, it could certainly signify a medium club.

I do like to value-bet bluff though. I really like it when you save a small % of your chips so it looks like it's all-in (e.g., you're ready to play for everything) but you really want a call so you're not going to push.