Settle an arguement I am having with Rojosox

[rohjoh]

We were in Vegas last Sunday through Tuesday, and had the opportunity to play in a live $100 buy in 8 table tourney. Payout structure was as follows: Paid 7 spots, with $2400 to winner, $1450 to second, and $850 for third. I know this is a single table forum, but I post here, and this is a single table situation.
I am going to try to recreate the hand best I can, but I was drinking crown and sevens, and I could be off on the numbers a little.
No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3200(3 handed)


Button (t11,500)
HERO (t10,250)
BB(t3300)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ah,8c
Button (who has not pushed once to this point) Pushes all in.
Hero?

[dfscott]

[ QUOTE ]
We were in Vegas last Sunday through Tuesday, and had the opportunity to play in a live $100 buy in 8 table tourney. Payout structure was as follows: Paid 7 spots, with $2400 to winner, $1450 to second, and $850 for third. I know this is a single table forum, but I post here, and this is a single table situation.
I am going to try to recreate the hand best I can, but I was drinking crown and sevens, and I could be off on the numbers a little.
No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3200(2 handed)


Button (t11,500)
HERO (t10,250)
BB(t3300)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ah,8c
BB (who has not pushed once to this point) Pushes all in.
Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that the BB acted out of turn? Or did you mean the button? Or did you drink one too many crown and sevens...

[Rojosox]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We were in Vegas last Sunday through Tuesday, and had the opportunity to play in a live $100 buy in 8 table tourney. Payout structure was as follows: Paid 7 spots, with $2400 to winner, $1450 to second, and $850 for third. I know this is a single table forum, but I post here, and this is a single table situation.
I am going to try to recreate the hand best I can, but I was drinking crown and sevens, and I could be off on the numbers a little.
No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3200(2 handed)


Button (t11,500)
HERO (t10,250)
BB(t3300)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ah,8c
BB (who has not pushed once to this point) Pushes all in.
Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that the BB acted out of turn? Or did you mean the button? Or did you drink one too many crown and sevens...

[/ QUOTE ]

He's dillusional. He must still be drunk. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[rohjoh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
We were in Vegas last Sunday through Tuesday, and had the opportunity to play in a live $100 buy in 8 table tourney. Payout structure was as follows: Paid 7 spots, with $2400 to winner, $1450 to second, and $850 for third. I know this is a single table forum, but I post here, and this is a single table situation.
I am going to try to recreate the hand best I can, but I was drinking crown and sevens, and I could be off on the numbers a little.
No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3200(2 handed)


Button (t11,500)
HERO (t10,250)
BB(t3300)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ah,8c
BB (who has not pushed once to this point) Pushes all in.
Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you saying that the BB acted out of turn? Or did you mean the button? Or did you drink one too many crown and sevens...

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, still a little slow from Vegas...

[Bigwig]

Are you saying that the BB has 100 chips after posting? If that's the case, I fold.

If not, I probably still fold.

[prepotency]

I dunno man, with the blinds this high I think I'm going all in with any ace. If it WAS the short stack that went all in this has to be a call but if you're talking about the other 11k chipstack then this is a fold. There's no need to risk this because you can wait for another hand that's better than this especially since shortie is going to bust next blind. Be more afraid and call this push if hte shortie doubles up first.

[Rojosox]

He has to call BECAUSE blinds are 1600/3200!!!! And guess what they're moving to 3200/6400 in like 5 minutes do to the stupidity of blind structure. This guy who went all-in was involved in a 4 way preflop all-in earlier with KQs vs AA vs QQ vs 83 (who made trips), and hit his flush. He didn't strike me as a bright player. Anyhow, with blinds being 1/3 to 1/2 your stack, i definitely call here. Feel free to express your opinion.

-Jared

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
He has to call BECAUSE blinds are 1600/3200!!!! And guess what they're moving to 3200/6400 in like 5 minutes do to the stupidity of blind structure. This guy who went all-in was involved in a 4 way preflop all-in earlier with KQs vs AA vs QQ vs 83 (who made trips), and hit his flush. He didn't strike me as a bright player. Anyhow, with blinds being 1/3 to 1/2 your stack, i definitely call here. Feel free to express your opinion.

-Jared

[/ QUOTE ]

But isn't the BB committed to the hand with his 3300 chips? If he sees both players all-in in front, he's going to fold to try and sneak into 3rd. He's going to call for sure (I would hope), so why not lay it down and hopefully wrap up 2nd? If Hero had AT+ I'd call in a flash. I think A8 is a little borderline.

[Rojosox]

A8 3 handed is better than average hand by far, no?

[prepotency]

[ QUOTE ]
A8 3 handed is better than average hand by far, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya but can we get the actual hand straight with correct blind posting and who actually pushed? This makes a difference.

[Rojosox]

if I said to you, someone was going to push before you, if you win this hand you get 1st, do you call with A8? I put the game on the line here, as i clearly think you're favored 90% of the time.

[prepotency]

[ QUOTE ]
if I said to you, someone was going to push before you, if you win this hand you get 1st, do you call with A8? I put the game on the line here, as i clearly think you're favored 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking back at the payouts:
[ QUOTE ]
$2400 to winner, $1450 to second, and $850 for third.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably call because if you win you are getting first and if you loose you will probably get second (I'm assuming that every player is all in including shortie).
So ya, I think I'd go with it. It's pretty close either way I think. You'll probably average 2nd if you fold and average 2nd if you call anyways.

[willie]

folds. edit, just saw the blinds

calls and wishes he didn't.

[rohjoh]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if I said to you, someone was going to push before you, if you win this hand you get 1st, do you call with A8? I put the game on the line here, as i clearly think you're favored 90% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking back at the payouts:
[ QUOTE ]
$2400 to winner, $1450 to second, and $850 for third.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd probably call because if you win you are getting first and if you loose you will probably get second (I'm assuming that every player is all in including shortie).
So ya, I think I'd go with it. It's pretty close either way I think. You'll probably average 2nd if you fold and average 2nd if you call anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are right, Rojosox heckled me from the rail, saying that it was an insta push. Of course the short stack doubled up, and I would have knocked him out with A8 when the 8 hit.

[Rojosox]

I was only heckling you because I wanted you to win. And I'm only busting your balls now because I am jealous that you finished about 600 places in front of me /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Big Limpin']

I would suggest surreptitiously nicking a black chip off the BB while the dealer is shuffling up before the hand. It would make the call MUCH easier. /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Button (t11,500)
HERO (t10,250)
BB(t3300)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ah,8c
Button (who has not pushed once to this point) Pushes all in.
Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

So...

(1) The button has not pushed yet
(2) He knows there's about 0% chance of stealing the blinds and that he will have to win a showdown against BB's hand.

What range of hands do you think the button is pushing here? I'm putting him on a range that A8o is 50% against at best (roughly top 1/3 of hands). Even if you were a slightly > 50% favorite, it's still a bad call, b/c a lot of BB's will fold and try to freeroll into 2nd (knowing their "random" BB hand has to win a 3-way pot to not finish 3rd).

By folding, on the next hand (absent a tie), you will either be HU and at least $600 richer (BB knocked out), or you will get to act first (with a bit of a"stealing edge") and have the option to push the button yourself (with the other two players probably not wanting to call you)) against two other equal stacks.

Sure, if the button had a non-pair/non-Ace hand you were a favorite, but the times he flips over a bigger pair or bigger Ace, you're a huge dog. He hasn't been playing aggressive. Calling would be bad IMO here.

If it was a much bigger jump from 2nd to 1st vs. 3rd to 2nd, then calling becomes a better play.

[maddog2030]

These payouts are close to identical to normal sng structure. That said, I think this is a fairly easy fold based on the information this is his first push. He should've been pushing a lot more ealier than this. I assume this means he doesn't know exactly what he's doing.

If you call, you're going to be in a 3 way hand for 1st with the best but still only a %40 winner. The initial raiser is going to gain at most 1.5 blinds. That's huge here where theres only 7-8 blinds in play, but you still have close to half the chips in play. I'd fold here and push first in of the remaining hands with any 2 unless you're pretty sure he'll call anyway. If he'd call your later pushes with anything then I'd call here.

I'm basing my guess that he would fold some hands later on even with ridiculous blinds based on the fact that he waited until now to make his first push. But obviously I'm no expert, this is just a newbie's analysis.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]

Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

....folds.

Folding is sublime.

Yugoslav

[Daliman]

I think call is the prudent play here. BB isn't folding in most cases.

[Scuba Chuck]

Before I plug this into Eastbay's computer dealio, my thoughts:

My instincts tell me this is an easy fold. But who knows?

Giving Rojosox's opinion of guy, that he is a terrible player who has never pushed allin, you might have to give him credit here. Furthermore, you gotta figure he has some sort of hand here, as he doesn't want to give BB (shorty) chips/ammo.

I adjusted the stacksizes, and tried to apply the stacks to similar situations and percentages as original.

Button: t2094
Hero: t1858
BB:t601
Blinds 300/600

Hope this is agreeable to everyone.

Results:
t: -9.3%
a: -8.7%
l: -3.8%
m: -1.7%

Numbers reflect my instincts. Good fold.

[The Yugoslavian]

Eastbay's thingydo doesn't really do this situation too well b/c the small stack will call a big % of the time....unless you somehow figured this into eveyrthing (which you didn't, /images/graemlins/tongue.gif).

Yugoslav

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Eastbay's thingydo doesn't really do this situation too well b/c the small stack will call a big % of the time....unless you somehow figured this into eveyrthing (which you didn't, ).

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this relevant? If BB calls, it makes matters even worse for hero, not better.

Scuba
whose glad you pointed this out for me.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Eastbay's thingydo doesn't really do this situation too well b/c the small stack will call a big % of the time....unless you somehow figured this into eveyrthing (which you didn't, ).

[/ QUOTE ]

How is this relevant? If BB calls, it makes matters even worse for hero, not better.

Scuba
whose glad you pointed this out for me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or even better... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

My gut says you want shorty up in that bizzatch....but I've spent way too much time thinking about this hand (not much) b/c I'm NOT SUPPOSED TO BE THINKING ABOUT POKER SINCE I'M TAKING A BREAK!!!

Bahhhhhhhhhhhhh! I hate myself.

That is all...

Yugoslav

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
I think call is the prudent play here. BB isn't folding in most cases.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Hero (who is covered by the button) calls, and BB looks down at his BB shat he can...

(a) Call with his shat against two players who like their hands and hope to win a 3-way pot, or

(b) Fold knowing the button has a reasonable chance of beating Hero, and if that happens he wins $600.

The fishier the player, the more likely they are to "fold and hope." It probably takes a pretty good hand to make it +EV to call, and even then a lot of players wouldn't know better.

I think most BB's fold the vast majority of their hands here when Hero calls (if this were a $33 online SNG or something, maybe not, but there's a lot more $$ at stake here and that scares most people even more).

[curtains]

There is NO way the numbers posted above by Scuba are accurate, especially the notion that it's bad if the BB calls.